Wahoo Wire

If last week’s matchup against William & Mary set up on paper as a sure-win, Saturday’s game against TCU has all the signs of a sure-loss.

TCU may lack the name recognition of other top-tier football teams, but this is not a squad to be taken lightly. The latest AP poll ranks the Horned Frogs 16^th in the nation. Virginia’s name can’t be found among the AP ranks, but College Football News lists them at 78.

Last season, TCU boasted what was arguably the country’s best defense. They lead the nation in both total and rushing defense, while limiting opponents to a paltry 11 points per game.

The Horned Frogs return starting quarterback Andy Dalton and tailback Joseph Turner. Dalton could pose a serious aerial threat, having demonstrated impressive accuracy last season by completing almost 60% of his passes and throwing only five interceptions. Turner provides the Frogs with a formidable running game that ranked 12th in the nation last year.

The morale scale also tips in TCU’s favor. Although TCU will be playing their season opener on Saturday and perhaps scraping off some rust, they closed the 2008-09 campaign by upsetting #9 Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl. UVA’s last outing was one to forget.

Given these disadvantages, the Cavaliers are decided underdogs (Vegas places TCU as 11 point favorites). As UVA so expertly demonstrated last week, however, upsets do happen.

To pull off the needed upset, Virginia must avoid turnovers. Although such a strategy seems simple, it bears repeating after UVA lost the ball on seven separate occasions in their season opener. Last year, TCU led the nation in time of possession. UVA cannot afford to sweeten their clock advantage by handing them the ball.

Although TCU’s defense was deadly in 2008, they return only four starters this year. Virginia running back Mikell Simpson and mobile quarterback Jameel Sewell will be attempting to navigate a rushing defense that yielded only 47 yards per game last season. However, TCU lost two of their most dominating linebackers in Matt Panfil and Cody Moore. Simpson and Sewell will look to take advantage of these holes.

Against such an imposing defense, Virginia Head Coach Al Groh will need to orchestrate a more cohesive offensive attack. Rotating three quarterbacks in last week’s game inflicted greater havoc on his offense than the opposing defense.

Groh must therefore elect between the experienced yet erratic Sewell and the solid if underwhelming Marc Verica for the quarterback position (Vic Hall is doubtful for Saturday’s game). The number he calls will have enormous consequences on Saturday’s game.

Though unlikely, an upset is possible for the Cavaliers. Virginia will need to take a cue from last week’s William & Mary example, and find a way to outscore a “better” team. Their season may depend on it.