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It’s the most wonderful time of the year for any diehard college basketball fan with conference play finally beginning for most of the top teams in the nation.  This Saturday marks the first full weekend of ACC games and so, to kick off the new year of ACC basketball right, here’s a breakdown of all 12 teams complete with my model’s win projections for them.  To refresh everyone’s memory of what this model uses, it takes into account teams’ non-conference points per possession stats (basically how they’ve been playing so far this season), their opponents’ RPI ranking, and their conference schedule weighted against the conference average.  I’ve also listed what they accomplished last season, talk about major gains/losses to the team, and list their starting lineup that has been most prevalent in the season so far.

This is going to be a crazy season in the ACC since everyone is so even.  You’ll notice that more than half the conference is predicted to win more than 8 games and that could actually happen.  The league had so many key players graduate or leave early that now the super-talented teams have no experience and the not-so-talented ones are the veteran clubs.  Which is better to have?  I’d rather have experience because of the tough places teams have to play in (Cameron, Dean Dome, Comcast Center, a full JPJ) but if a team of “kids” gets enough done out of conference, they may be okay.

To sum up what the landscape looks like, Duke has the best blend of talent and experience, so they’re in the best position to succeed; Carolina is the most talented team but has no experience whatsoever, so they should get second; after that, throw darts at a board because every other team is pretty much the same.  Clemson is experienced, but not as talented as Georgia Tech; Florida State has talent, but Maryland has been there before…etc.

The last time we saw an ACC season like this was 2006-2007, and everyone in Charlottesville remembers that year (for those of you who don’t, Virginia won the ACC regular season…wake up), so this should be fun.

With all that said, sit back, relax, and enjoy the 2010 ACC Breakdown:

Notes:

• “+” next to projected value means not high enough to round up a full win but more than that listed number
• italicized names are freshmen
• projected values do not include games after 1/4/10

1. DUKE BLUE DEVILS

2009 Winning %: .828

2009 ACC Wins: 11

2009 Postseason: Lost to Villanova in Sweet 16

09/10 Starting Lineup:

• Nolan Smith (G)
• John Scheyer (G)
• Kyle Singler (F)
• Lance Thomas (F)
• Miles Plumblee (F)

What they lost:

The Blue Devils lacked a certain amount of athleticism last season, which showed in their embarrassing tournament loss to Villanova.  Unfortunately for them, they lost their most athletic and exciting player, forward Gerald Henderson, to the NBA Draft.  While this is the most obvious blow to the team, not to be forgotten is the transfer of point guard Elliot Williams.  As a freshman for the 08-09 season, Williams took over the starting role halfway through the year and gave the Devils a much needed spark on the floor.  His departure, as well as the graduation of guard Greg Paulus, leaves Duke a little thin in the backcourt, which could be an issue in ACC play where guards rule.

What they gained:

While Brian Zoubek is tall, he does not fit the mold for a Coach K player: quick, athletic, and the ability to score from everywhere.  Their recruiting class for 09-10, however, has two players that should fix this obvious hole down low: Mason Plumblee and Ryan Kelly.  Pumblee is the brother of current Duke center Miles and was rated the number two center in this year’s class while Kelly has been described as power forward who can pass like a point guard.  These two young guns will give the Duke arsenal a much needed boost in the paint, and the acquisition of Liberty transfer Seth Curry will boost their backcourt in the future (Curry has to sit a year because of the transfer).

Projected 2010 ACC Wins: 13

Summary:

Say what you want about Duke, they win games…and usually a lot of them.  With the conference as a whole generally weaker, the Blue Devils should contend for the ACC crown.  But if their offense remains a one trick pony like last year, that, as well as national success, could be in doubt.

2. NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS

2009 Winning %: .879

2009 ACC Wins: 13

2009 Postseason: Won National Championship

09/10 Starting Lineup:

• Larry Drew II (G)
• Will Graves (G)
• Marcus Ginyard (G/F)
• Deon Thompson (F)
• Ed Davis (F)

What they lost:

The National Champion Tar Heels didn’t lose that much…just four of five starters, their four top scorers, and a three-time National Player of the Year.  Unfortunately for the rest of the conference, an exodus like this has already happened to the Heels this decade and they won another national championship within four years…yikes.

What they gained:

Despite what they lost, the Tar Heels still have a very talented squad that should contend on a national level.  Sophomore Ed Davis nearly played his way from the Carolina bench to the NBA Lottery last March and has quickly emerged as an all around force to be reckoned with in the paint.  Joining him down low is another sophomore center Tyler Zeller, who missed most of last season due to injury, and already entrenched senior starter Deon Thompson.  Throw in senior Marcus Ginyard returning from injury, junior Will Graves returning from suspension, plus the top recruiting class in the nation and the future for Carolina looks as good as it ever has.

Projected 2010 ACC Wins: 10 +

Summary:

Inexperience is the only thing standing between this team and domination since only Ginyard and Thompson have played consistent minutes in the conference (and college basketball in general) before.  Their inexperience has showed in all of their losses (and some wins) but if their new starters and freshmen like Dexter Strickland and John Henson can put it together, watch out for the Tar Heels in March.

3. CLEMSON TIGERS

2009 Winning %: .676

2009 ACC Wins: 9

2009 Postseason: Lost to Michigan NCAA Rd. 1

09/10 Starting Lineup:

• Demontez Stitt (G)
• Tanner Smith (G)
• David Potter (F)
• Jerai Grant (F)
• Trevor Booker (F)

What they lost:

Clemson was dealt a shock blow to their team this offseason that dramatically shifts how they’ll be scoring the basketball.  While they anticipated the graduation of KC Rivers and Raymond Sykes (their starting point guard and center respectively), starting sharpshooter Terrance Oglesby unexpectedly decided to forgo his remaining two years at Clemson to play professionally in Europe.  This means the Tigers have to replace their entire starting backcourt, two of their top three scorers, and the only two players on their roster to hit more than 30 three pointers last season.

What they gained:

Despite those losses, Clemson has one of the best big men in the conference in senior Trevor Booker and they added his younger brother Devin to give opposing coaches more headaches.  Sophomore hustle-man Tanner Smith has taken over a starting role and has helped the Tigers continue their pressure style of play while senior David Potter has stepped into the outside shooting role hitting 46% of his threes.

Projected 2010 ACC Wins: 10

Summary:

The past three years, Clemson has flown out of the gates and faded once February rolls around, so maybe drop one win from this projection.  They cause enough problems with their pressure that it may mask what they lost against some weaker clubs, but against the elite, I wouldn’t be so sure.

4. GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS

2009 Winning %: .387

2009 ACC Wins: 2

2009 Postseason: No Postseason

09/10 Starting Lineup:

• Iman Shumpert (G)
• Mfon Udofia (G)
• D’Andre Bell
• Gani Lawal
• Derrick Favors (F)

What they lost:

It’s hard to really say that they “lost” something from a team that only won two conference games last season but they Jackets did have two of their most productive players depart due to graduation.  Lewis Clinch was a clutch shooter that they could usually rely on for points and Alade Aminu provided them experience in the post and rebounds.  But again, having players leave a 2-win team isn’t much of a loss as long as they bring in decent players to replace them.

What they gained:

It is safe to say that the players brought in by coach Paul Hewitt are decent replacements for those departed.  Two of their starting five are freshman with Derrick Favors being arguably the top player in his class and Mfon Udofia is a top talent as well.  Junior Gani Lawal continues to improve in the post and sophomore Iman Shumpert impressed a lot of people last March with his play at the point guard position.

2010 Projected ACC Wins: 10

Summary:

In typical Georgia Tech fashion, Paul Hewitt brought in a stellar class that has the potential to compete on the national level (for one year anyway).  But with a non-conference resume with zero quality wins, his freshmen will need to deliver quite a few ACC victories if they want to dance.

5. MARYLAND TERRAPINS

2009 Winning %: .618

2009 ACC Wins: 7

2009 Postseason: Lost to Memphis NCAA Rd. 2

09/10 Starting Lineup:

• Greivis Vasquez (G)
• Eric Hayes (G)
• Landon Milbourne (F)
• Sean Mosley (F)
• Jordan Williams (F)

What they lost:

Not much from last year to be honest.  Big man Dave Neal graduated so Maryland loses his ability to draw bigger opponents away from the basket, but other than that all major players are returning for the Terps

What they gained:

Maryland brought in freshmen James Padgett and Jordan Williams, neither of which were rated particularly high coming out of high school but bring athleticism and length to the Maryland attack.  The 6-10 Williams gives Maryland a shot blocker they seriously lacked last season and will allow Vasquez and Hayes to be more reckless in their defense up top.  Sophomore Sean Mosley has also seen an increase in production from last year in the shooting guard/swingman role.

2010 Projected ACC Wins: 9 +

Summary:

After just sneaking into the tournament last March, Maryland should get in more assuredly this season (a bad home loss to William & Mary doesn’t help, though).  They may not have the talent to crack the upper echelon in the conference but they have experience, something that can’t be said for more than half the league.

6. MIAMI HURRICANES

2009 Winning %: .613

2009 ACC Wins: 7

2009 Postseason: Lost to Florida NIT Rd. 2

09/10 Starting Lineup:

• Durand Scott (G)
• James Dews (G)
• Dwayne Collins (F)
• DeQuan Jones (F)
• Cyrus McGowan (F)

What they lost:

The Hurricanes lost so much this offseason they should be downgraded to the Tropical Storms (thank you, I’ll be here all week).  They lost three starters and their sixth man from last season and, again, when two of those starters are your starting guards, that doesn’t bode well in the ACC.  And that assessment isn’t factoring in that Jack McClinton, one of only two Hurricanes to average double figures in points last year, is now gone.

What they gained:

Knowing that he needed to replace a lot, coach Frank Haith went out and brought in a pretty good recruiting class highlighted by starting point guard Durand Scott.  All told, the class sports five players and should help the ‘Canes reload for the future.

2010 Projected ACC Wins: 9

Summary:

Much like Clemson, Miami always fires out of the gates against a below average schedule and can never really hang on during conference play.  This year, they’ve put up the best non-conference stats in the ACC, but it’s against such bad teams that they’re only projected at 9 wins.  That isn’t a good sign.  And considering they lost their main source of offense, don’t be surprised if this projection gets sliced in half.

7. WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS

2009 Winning %: .800

2009 ACC Wins: 11

2009 Postseason: Lost to Cleveland State NCAA Rd. 1

09/10 Starting Lineup:

• Ishmael Smith (G)
• CJ Harris (G)
• LD Williams (F)
• Al-Farouq Aminu (F)
• Chas McFarland (F)

What they lost:

While everyone remembers they lost leading scorer Jeff Teague, people forget that James Johnson departed as well.  Johnson was the team’s second leading scorer and was an athletic defender who could guard small and power forwards.  Shooter Harvey Hale also left due to graduation leaving the Deacons with a serious hole in terms of perimeter scoring as no one left on the roster hit more than 10 threes last year.

What they gained:

Keeping Aminu around for a second season was as good as gaining a top recruit since no one expected him to remain at school.  Wake also added yet another tree to their forest of big men with Top 50 recruit Ari Stewart.  Ish Smith remains one of the toughest guards in the league to defend but he hasn’t improved his outside shooting, which will cause the Deacons problems as the year goes on.

2010 Projected ACC Wins: 8 +

Summary:

They’ll block a lot of shots and play stingy defense but the big question mark for Wake is where they’ll get their scoring from.  Teams will be daring them to shoot from the outside and unless someone on the team steps up and delivers, Wake could be looking at a frustrating season.

8. FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES

2009 Winning %: .735

2009 ACC Wins: 10

2009 Postseason: Lost to Wisconsin NCAA Rd. 1

09/10 Starting Lineup:

• Derwin Kitchen (G)
• Deividas Dulkys (G)
• Chris Singleton (F)
• Ryan Reid (F)
• Solomon Alabi (F)

What they lost:

Much like UVa had to fill the void left by Sean Singletary’s departure last season, this year’s Seminole squad will have to replace point guard Toney Douglas after a stellar final season.  Douglas led the Seminoles to the NCAA tournament while leading them in almost every category you can chart.  Not to be forgotten though, is big man Uche Echefu, who also left through graduation.  He was the defensive leader on the floor for the ‘Noles and provided further leadership to an otherwise incredibly young team.

What they gained:

That youth, however, will be paying off this year for coach Leonard Hamilton.  His nine-man rotation features five sophomores (three of which are starters), two juniors, and a freshman…all of whom can play at this level.  Solomon Alabi showed last year he was a force to be reckoned with around the rim while Deividas Dulkys showed his ability to knock down the three consistently.  Throw in top-20 recruit Michael Snaer, and the Seminoles could be a top four team this season

2010 Projected ACC Wins: 8 +

Summary:

While Douglas did most of the heavy lifting last season, the kids can carry the weight themselves this year.  The main roadblock between them and the upper level of the conference will be their tough schedule, having to play at Duke and UNC and play Clemson twice, but the Seminoles are on the rise.

9. BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES

2009 Winning %: .667

2009 ACC Wins: 9

2009 Postseason: Lost to USC NCAA Rd. 1

09/10 Starting Lineup:

• Biko Paris (G)
• Reggie Jackson (G)
• Rakim Sanders (F)
• Joe Trapani (F)
• Cory Raji (F)

What they lost:

Yet another ACC team that lost its leader at the point guard position with the graduation of  Tyrese Rice.  Rice led the team in points, assists, three point shooting, free throws, and field goals while averaging over 33 minutes per game during 08-09.  Al Skinner’s methodical (read: boring) flex offense may be able to hide this loss a little, but come conference play, this team is without a proven leader.

What they gained:

Unfortunately for BC, they were unable to add any freshman or transfers this season to try to help fill Rice’s shoes.  They need to work with the pieces already in place, some of which do show some promise though.  Sophomore guard Reggie Jackson has stepped in nicely after a freshman campaign marred with as many downs as ups, junior Joe Trapani has emerged into a quality all around player, and junior Rakim Sanders has always been an awkward matchup for teams to handle.

2010 Projected ACC Wins: 8

Summary:

Boston College has a bad habit of playing to the level of their competition which costs them dearly in non-conference play (see losses to URI, Harvard, and Maine).  They will struggle against some of the better guards in the conference as Rice is no longer there to stabilize a bad stretch of play but, that being said, they always seem to exceed expectations.

10. VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES

2009 Winning %: .576

2009 ACC Wins: 7

2009 Postseason: Lost to Baylor NIT Rd. 2

09/10 Starting Lineup:

• Malcolm Delaney (G)
• Dorenzo Hudson (G)
• Terrell Bell (F)
• Jeff Allen (F)
• Victor Davila (F)

What they lost:

Hokie haters will be glad to see A.D. Vassallo depart through graduation.  He was the Hokies’ leading scorer last season and his clutch shots provided them with a number of close wins through the years.  Forward Cheick Diakite also graduated but he had taken a back seat to Jeff Allen by his senior year.  An interesting departure was the transfer of backup point guard Hank Thorns.  Thorns proved a difficult matchup for many guards due to his immense quickness and he provided Malcolm Delaney an opportunity to play the shooting guard spot during games.  He had the top assist to turnover ratio in the conference last year so he will undoubtedly be missed.

What they gained:

The reason for Thorns’ transfer was probably the impending arrival of star recruit Lamont Jones, but Jones backed out of his decision and has left Tech with a considerable hole behind Delaney.  Tech did reel in a top big man in Cadarian Raines, but the Hokies are pretty well set in the frontcourt.

2010 Projected ACC Wins: 8

Summary:

The Hokies are itching to play in the dance after they were snubbed the last two years.  Their problem?  7-9 in conference and no signature wins.  It isn’t that Tech isn’t talented enough, it’s that Tech never beats anyone they aren’t supposed to during the season.  This year, however, they, like us, have a very easy schedule so there shouldn’t any more whining by coach Uncle Fester…er, Greenberg.

11. VIRGINIA CAVALIERS

2009 Winning %: .357

2009 ACC Wins: 4

2009 Postseason: No Postseason

09/10 Starting Lineup:

• Sammy Zeglinski (G)
• Mustapha Farrakhan (G)
• Sylven Landesberg (F)
• Mike Scott (F)
• Assane Sene (F)

What they lost:

Not much.  Look, I loved Mamadi and thought he could play, but the fact is he didn’t get on the court much last year so losing him doesn’t hurt as much as some people think.  The loss of Soroye is even more meaningless since Tunji played more minutes as a sophomore than he did in his final three years combined.

What they gained:

Experience.  The team is still very young but they all got a lot of minutes last year so that will (hopefully) pay dividends later in the season.  New coach Tony Bennett has also injected some life into the program and is an upgrade in coaching ability (especially on defense).  And the Hoos did have two solid freshmen (Tristan Spurlock and Jontel Evans) join the team this year.  Evans has impressed many with his defensive abilities but Spurlock isn’t playing as much as people expected.  This may be the mystery of the season but as long as the team is winning games, it won’t be that big of an issue

2010 Projected ACC Wins: 7 +

Summary:

Yeah, I may be a little biased but good sign number one: no blowout losses so far this season; good sign number two: three players are averaging double figures, not just Landesberg; and good sign number three: an easy conference schedule.  There is enough talent in Charlottesville to flirt with the dance…and frankly there’s nowhere to go but up (already have 8 wins this year; had 10 all of last season).

12. NC STATE WOLFPACK

2009 Winning %: .533

2009 ACC Wins: 6

2009 Postseason: No Postseason

09/10 Starting Lineup:

• Javier Gonzalez (G)
• CJ Williams (G)
• Scott Wood (F)
• Dennis Horner (F)
• Tracy Smith (F)

What they lost:

Their top three scorers left them as big men Ben McCauley and Brandon Costner plus swingman Courney Fells all graduated.  That leaves State with some serious holes to fill up front and they’ve always had difficulty finding guards.  Many thought they’d be here with a new coach, but Sidney Lowe managed to retain his job for at least another year.

What they gained:

What probably saved Lowe’s job was this recruiting class as he brought in a Top 15 crew with three players in the Top 100.  What didn’t help, however, was the best of the bunch (guard Lorenzo Brown) failing to qualify academically leaving a State without that stellar guard they’ve needed for three years.  Big men Deshawn Painter and Scott Wood should help ease the pain of McCauley and Costner departing, but State has a lot of holes to fill.

2010 Projected ACC Wins: 7

Summary:

They weren’t as bad as everyone (me included) thought they would be last season and while they did lose a lot, the players left have shown signs of improvement.  They have a relatively experienced roster and, as usual, have tons of big bodies to throw out there.  The question, as always with the Wolfpack, is who is going to get them the ball?