Wahoo Wire

It’s the beginning of the spring semester, and what better way to celebrate than with the first 2010 edition of Wahoo Wire’s Bracketology?  Roundball fever has certainly hit Charlottesville, as Tony Bennett has his squad out to a 3-0 start in the ACC.  But UVA is not the only surprising squad to appear Dance-worthy; from the Atlantic 10 to the West Coast Conference, late January begins the time period when teams can make or break their postseason fate.  Of course, with 34 at-large bids to be distributed come March, expect a lot of movement between now and Selection Sunday.  In fact, expect some week-to-week vacillation, as there are plenty of teams already on the bubble.

Below are the bids I expect each conference to receive, with the leagues listed in alphabetical order.  “Lock” signifies a team that would definitely earn an at-large bid if the season ended today.  The designation of “On the Bubble” represents teams with questionable tournament statuses, but whose tickets the selection committee would likely punch.  “Off the Bubble” teams are equally iffy, but in slightly worse positions to make the Big Dance.  A conference’s number of bids is the total of the one automatic bid, locks, and on the bubble teams.  Lastly, numbers in parentheses denote team Ratings Per Index, as per Ken Pomeroy (refer to http://kenpom.com/rate.php for details).

America East – 1

Auto Bid: Vermont (129)

Atlantic 10 – 2

Auto Bid: Temple (27)

On the Bubble: Xavier (34)

Off the Bubble: Dayton (57), Rhode Island (63), Richmond (71)

The Rundown: With Temple a lock for the Dance with or without the automatic bid, the A-10 appears to be a multiple-bid league.  But the four contenders for the extra spot(s) – Xavier, Dayton, Rhode Island, and Richmond – are all flawed and squarely on the bubble.  Xavier distinguishes itself with conference record (4-0) and computer numbers.  Dayton (Georgia Tech, Old Dominion) and Richmond (Mississippi State, Missouri, ODU, Florida) have solid wins but no numbers to back them up.  URI has a pristine 14-2 record, but the Rams have built it against 10 teams worse than 100 in the RPI.  Expect this mess to sort itself out as the elite teams begin to play each other.

Atlantic Coast – 8

Auto Bid: Virginia (56)

Locks: Duke (1), Clemson (16), Georgia Tech (24), Florida State (25)

On the Bubble: Maryland (18), Wake Forest (38), North Carolina (46)

Off the Bubble: Virginia Tech (31), Boston College (77), North Carolina State (79)

The Rundown: Every team – literally every team – still has a shot at making the Tournament (even Miami, which fails to appear on this list only because it currently occupies last place).  Virginia’s presence atop the league has altered the ACC pecking order, probably usurping an at-large bid from this or another power conference.  UNC still makes this list because of strong early victories (Ohio State, Michigan State), but must reverse its losing streak to stay on the right side of the bubble.  Maryland, Virginia Tech, Boston College, and NC State had unimpressive non-conference seasons and need to stay afloat in conference play to catch the committee’s eye.  Maryland makes it because the computers favor Gary Williams’ squad.

Atlantic Sun – 1

Auto Bid: Campbell (142)

Big East – 8

Auto Bid: Villanova (20)

Locks: Syracuse (4), West Virginia (7), Georgetown (19), Pittsburgh (26)

On the Bubble: Marquette (17), Louisville (30), Cincinnati (55)

Off the Bubble: Connecticut (42), Seton Hall (59), Notre Dame (76)

The Rundown: Likely the best conference in the land, the Big East sports incredible parity from spots four to 12.  The three squads off the bubble are there because they generally lack impressive wins, which is where Cincinnati (Vanderbilt, Maryland, Connecticut) has a significant advantage.  Marquette, Louisville, and Cincinnati all need to finish 9-9 or so in conference play in order to solidify their resumes.  In a typically deep Big East, that’s an accomplishment more easily said than done.

Big Sky – 1

Auto Bid: Weber State (96)

Big South – 1

Auto Bid: Coastal Carolina (153)

Big Ten – 6

Auto Bid: Michigan State (12)

Locks: Wisconsin (6), Purdue (9), Ohio State (11)

On the Bubble: Minnesota (21), Illinois (48)

Off the Bubble: Michigan (64), Northwestern (73)

The Rundown: Michigan has wilted under preseason expectations and is fast fading from the NCAA picture.  Minnesota and Illinois are two of the more precariously placed bubble teams around, but both played solid non-league slates and would probably make the Dance if it began today.  The top four teams are absolutely bubble-proof – even Ohio State, which survived a freak Evan Turner injury and appears poised to make a run with its best player back in the lineup.

Big West – 1

Auto Bid: Pacific (106)

Big XII – 5

Auto Bid: Kansas (2)

Locks: Texas (5), Kansas State (8), Missouri (13), Baylor (29)

Off the Bubble: Texas A&M (43)

The Rundown: Unlike other multi-bid leagues, the Big XII’s Big Dance portrait is very clear.  Baylor did enough outside the conference (wins over Xavier and at Arizona State) to solidify its position even if the Bears dip in league play.  Texas A&M is probably the odd team out, but with a relatively light schedule the next few weeks, could make a run and find itself on the right side of the bubble as early as next week.  The Aggies have a good non-conference profile but are currently 0-3 in Big XII play.

Colonial Athletic – 1

Auto Bid: George Mason (126)

Off the Bubble: Old Dominion (28), William & Mary (84)

The Rundown: Somehow, the computers are lukewarm on W&M despite road wins at two ACC at-large contenders (Maryland and Wake Forest) and in-state victories against Richmond and VCU.  If the Tribe’s RPI dips into the low 60s, at 14-3, the committee will be hard-pressed to ignore them.  Old Dominion has the opposite problem: one great win (at Georgetown) and a strangely strong computer profile, but no real substance beyond what seems to be a fluky victory over the Hoyas.  Still, at 6-1 in league play, both those squads are in a decent position to gain the committee’s favor down the stretch, especially if George Mason (currently 7-1 in the CAA) falters.

Conference USA – 2

Auto Bid: Memphis (37)

On the Bubble: UAB (51)
Off the Bubble: Tulsa (44), Marshall (85)

The Rundown: UAB has just enough juice at 15-2 to find itself on the inside this week, and with wins against Butler and Cincinnati, only shaky computer numbers weaken its profile.  Tulsa’s best non-league win was against Oklahoma State, while Marshall, though 15-2, has played only two RPI Top 100 foes (losses at Old Dominion and North Carolina).  Expect Tulsa and Marshall to fade, as their records are the product of favorable scheduling; meanwhile, UAB might actually challenge Memphis and its stranglehold on the C-USA this year.

Horizon League – 1

Auto Bid: Butler (33)

Ivy League – 1

Auto Bid: Cornell (69)

Off the Bubble: Harvard (65)

The Rundown: Harvard makes a courtesy appearance on this list, as the Ivy League is a two-horse race this season.  At 12-3 (2-2 against the RPI Top 100) it’s a nice but unrealistic thought to have the Crimson on the bubble.  It will be interesting if Cornell and Harvard split their series this year – the Ivy, having no conference tournament, will have to employ some sort of (likely controversial) tiebreaker to determine the winner of its auto bid.

Metro Atlantic Athletic – 1

Auto Bid: Siena (60)

Mid American – 1

Auto Bid: Buffalo (105)

Mid-Eastern Athletic – 1

Auto Bid: Morgan State (128)

Missouri Valley – 1

Auto Bid: Northern Iowa (39)

Off the Bubble: Wichita State (53)

The Rundown: The Shockers’ convincing win over Northern Iowa this week earns it a spot close to the bubble, but no serious at-large consideration.  WSU’s best non-league win was a victory at home against (91) Texas Tech.  Still, at an impressive 17-3 (6-2 in the MVC), Gregg Marshall’s team has a chance to steal a bid if it can navigate a perennially prickly Missouri Valley.

Mountain West – 3

Auto Bid: Brigham Young (3)

On the Bubble: UNLV (47), New Mexico (50)

Off the Bubble: San Diego State (70)
The Rundown: This league looks as strong as ever in recent years.  BYU owns the nation’s second-best record at 18-1, while UNM and UNLV are positioned strongly despite underwhelming computer numbers.  BYU still has to play in Las Vegas and its two-game series with New Mexico, so the power struggle atop the MWC has yet to shake out completely.  When the dust settles, though, expect the three top teams to have secure positions in the Dance.

Northeast – 1

Auto Bid: Quinnipiac (158)

Ohio Valley – 1

Auto Bid: Murray State (54)

Pacific 10 – 3

Auto Bid: Arizona State (15)

On the Bubble: California (22), Southern California (45)

Off the Bubble: Washington (61)

The Rundown: Who knew a down year would get this ugly for the Pac-10?  Cal, expected to win the league before the season began, has looked non-competitive at times against top-flight competition, and earns a spot here only because of its good computer numbers.  USC has some important non-conference wins (Tennessee, Saint Mary’s, UNLV) and sits in a tie for second in the league at 3-2, which is probably good enough – for now.  As for Washington?  Get back to me once you win a road game.

Patriot League – 1

Auto Bid: Lafayette (216)

Southeastern – 5

Auto Bid: Kentucky (14)

Locks: Tennessee (10), Vanderbilt (23)

On the Bubble: Mississippi State (32), Mississippi (35)

Off the Bubble: Florida (49), Alabama (78)

The Rundown: After winning two straight national titles, Florida seems destined to end the year on the outside looking in for the third consecutive campaign.  Three straight home losses, including one to Southern Alabama (199), cripple its profile.  Alabama is a year or two away from seriously competing under Anthony Grant.  The two Mississippi schools own very secure positions on the bubble, but are a few key wins away from lock status.

Southern – 1

Auto Bid: College of Charleston (125)

Southland – 1

Auto Bid: Texas A&M Corpus Christi (156)

Southwestern Athletic – 1

Auto Bid: Prairie View A&M (295)

Summit League – 1

Auto Bid: Oakland (111)

Sun Belt – 1

Auto Bid: Arkansas State (205)

West Coast – 2

Auto Bid: Gonzaga (36)

On the Bubble: Saint Mary’s (41)

The Rundown: Saint Mary’s blew a big chance to solidify its resume on the 14^th when it lost at home to Gonzaga, but the Gaels’ emphasis on scheduling away and neutral-site games has helped its computer profile and credibility.  SMC will need to finish 12-2 in conference to maintain its chance at an at-large bid, and a February win in Spokane wouldn’t hurt, either.

Western Athletic – 1

Auto Bid: Louisiana Tech (68)

Off the Bubble: Utah State (40), Nevada (67)

The Rundown: Louisiana Tech has built a 17-2 (5-0 in the WAC, 4-2 against the RPI Top 100) record, though it still may not receive an at-large bid if it doesn’t clinch the conference title.  Utah State and Nevada scheduled bravely, although neither has much of a chance at an at-large berth (even though USU is the only team to have beaten BYU this year).