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After a week off, Bracketology is back attempting to project the updated Field of 65.  There hasn’t been too much movement on and off the bubble, but this is, of course, only the beginning of the pre-Selection Sunday chaos.

So how does the NCAA Tournament field project at this time?

Below are the bids I expect each conference to receive, with the leagues listed in alphabetical order.  “Lock” signifies a team that would definitely earn an at-large bid if the season ended today.  The designation of “On the Bubble” represents teams with questionable tournament statuses, but whose tickets the selection committee would likely punch.  “Off the Bubble” teams are equally iffy, but in slightly worse positions to make the Big Dance.  A conference’s number of bids is the total of the one automatic bid, locks, and on the bubble teams.  Lastly, numbers in parentheses denote team Ratings Per Index, as per www.realtimerpi.com (and accurate as of last Tuesday).

America East (1)

Auto: Stony Brook (156)

Atlantic 10 (6)

Auto: Charlotte (46)

Locks: Rhode Island (13), Temple (17)

On the Bubble: Xavier (27), Richmond (30), Dayton (34)

Yes, you read that correctly.  The A-10 is possibly as strong as it’s ever been this season, with an unprecedented six teams in good positions for at-large candidacy.  Besides Dayton, each of these teams still has a realistic chance at the regular season conference title.  The only team even close to “Last Four In” status is Charlotte, whose non-conference profile (which includes a 42-point loss at Duke and a 33-point loss at Old Dominion) is questionable.  However, an 18-5 (8-1) mark that leads the conference, plus a respectable RPI, keep the 49ers in the hunt.  Convincing home wins by Dayton and Richmond over Xavier and Temple, respectively, even out the top of the league and muddle the A-10 picture to the point where five of these teams (not including Charlotte) stand on almost identical at-large footing.

Atlantic Coast (6)

Auto: Duke (4)

Lock: Wake Forest (13)

On the Bubble: Georgia Tech (23), Florida State (37), Clemson (41), Maryland (42)

Off the Bubble: Virginia Tech (63)

Georgia Tech and Florida State are essentially locks, but their non-league profiles are poor enough where a serious dip in conference play could jeopardize their chances of an at-large berth.  Speaking of collapses, Clemson has lost four of five and is teetering on “Last Four In” status, but did enough outside the ACC (wins vs. Butler and at home against South Carolina) to justify its inclusion.  The Terps have come on strong to position themselves near the top of the league, and the only thing keeping them away from lock status is average computer numbers.  Virginia Tech has played its way onto the bubble, but remains far from an at-large berth thanks to a weak 1-2 record against the RPI Top 50 and a cupcake schedule (ranked 189 in the country).

Atlantic Sun (1)

Auto: Lipscomb (199)

Big East (5)

Auto: Syracuse (2)

Locks: Villanova (3), West Virginia (6), Georgetown (7), Pittsburgh (18)

Off the Bubble: Louisville (43), South Florida (50), Cincinnati (55), Connecticut (57), Notre Dame (59), Marquette (60), Seton Hall (64)

Not one, not two, but seven Big East teams sit right at the bubble, and the margin for error is essentially zero.  Call it a hunch, but I see Marquette (which struggled winning road games a tight contests earlier this year but is currently on a four-game win streak) putting it together and sewing up an at-large bid later this month; however, their computer numbers cannot justify inclusion into the tournament at this point despite a four-game win streak.  The rest of the bubble foes have their own flaws: Louisville, Notre Dame, and South Florida have pathetic non-conference resumes; UConn has entered free-fall mode, losing six of its past nine; Cincinnati has struggled to win on the road (its only true road victory came at #127 Rutgers); and Seton Hall is 3-7 in conference play.  This may not be the deepest league in the country anymore, considering the absurd amount of mediocrity from spots 6-12.

Big Sky (1)

Auto: Weber State (80)

Big South (1)

Auto: Coastal Carolina (141)

Big Ten (5)

Auto: Illinois (65)

Locks: Purdue (9), Wisconsin (16), Michigan State (21)

On the Bubble: Ohio State (40)

Off the Bubble: Minnesota (62), Northwestern (67)

When did winning Big Ten games on the road get easy?  Victories by Illinois (at Wisconsin) and Purdue (at Michigan State) in the past week, the top of the conference has suddenly become very murky.  The Illini have now knocked off MSU and Wisconsin in their past two games, adding marquee wins to a resume that already includes gems like “at Clemson” and “Vanderbilt.”  Now that the computer numbers are starting to improve, Illinois looks like an increasingly good bet to earn an at-large bid.  Ohio State will be an interesting case for the selection committee, as the Buckeyes are a red-hot 15-3 with Evan Turner in the lineup but stand fourth in the league standings.  Minnesota has failed to impress, winning on the road only against the two worst league teams, and Northwestern (while overachieving) lacks the computer numbers and major victories to claim an at-large bid.

Big West (1)

Auto: Pacific (112)

Big XII (7)

Auto: Kansas (1)

Locks: Kansas State (8), Texas A&M (19), Texas (27)

On the Bubble: Baylor (28), Texas Tech (29), Oklahoma State (36)

Texas did plenty over its non-conference slate, and thank goodness for Longhorns fans, because Bevo & Co. are in a free-fall after receiving a home-court beat down from true conference top dog Kansas.  The Horns are still a lock, but they’ve jeopardized their seeding after losing for the fifth time in seven games.  Texas A&M, on the other hand, made a huge push, rallying to win at Missouri and then again at home against Baylor.  Missouri and Baylor both fared relatively well outside the league, and simply need to maintain a .500 league record to receive a seed in the 5-8 range.  Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are almost on the exact same footing; the teams have similar computer profiles and both stand at 4-5 in the conference.  Because of the conference’s strength and help from the computers, both teams earn a spot for now – but need to hover at .500 in Big XII play to feel confident about their long-term chances.

Colonial Athletic (3)

Auto: Northeastern (54)

On the Bubble: Old Dominion (35), Virginia Commonwealth (56)

Off the Bubble: William & Mary (52)

With its 11-2 league mark and tie-breakers over ODU and VCU, the Colonial regular season crown is Northeastern’s to lose.  The Huskies aren’t in great position for an at-large bid, but it remains to be seen how much value the selection committee will place on its strong league wins.  Old Dominion, on the other hand, has a very well-rounded profile, and remains only about 10 RPI points from lock status.  The decision to add Virginia Commonwealth to the bubble is a difficult one; the Rams’ recent loss at George Mason muddles their at-large chances.  Still, VCU has a 6-4 record against the RPI Top 100 (4-0 out of conference) and is 3-0 against the Top 50.  A relatively easy finish to the season should see the Rams end at 12-6 in the league, just enough to squeak by with an at-large bid.  W&M has lost four of six to fade from the at-large picture.  This is probably not a three-bid league at the end of the season, but as of this moment, there are few more enticing options.

Conference USA (2)

Auto: UTEP (58)

On the Bubble: Alabama Birmingham (30)

Off the Bubble: Tulsa (61), Memphis (75)

With only one conference loss and wins at Memphis, at UAB, and over Tulsa, UTEP is in the best shape to claim the C-USA regular season crown.  Where that leads them, though, is unknown; the Miners have to win the league’s postseason tournament to go Dancing.  UAB has two good non-league wins (over Cincinnati and Butler) and a strong enough computer profile to feel good about its at-large chances.  The other schools simply lack most elements of a strong at-large resume, and appear here only because their chances of winning the C-USA Tournament are fairly strong.

Horizon League (1)

Auto: Butler (12)

Ivy League (1)

Auto: Cornell (48)

Metro Atlantic Athletic (1)

Auto: Siena (33)

Mid American (1)

Auto: Kent State (66)

Mid-Eastern Athletic (1)

Auto: Morgan State (117)

Missouri Valley (1)

Auto: Northern Iowa (15)

Off the Bubble: Wichita State (51)

A loss at Evansville seriously dampens WSU’s bid for an at-large berth, although Gregg Marshall has his squad about a year or so from competing with big-time programs.  Northern Iowa has won a remarkable five road games in a league where winning away from home is a chore, to put it kindly.  This conference gets two bids only if the Panthers falter in the MVC Tournament.

Mountain West (3)

Auto: Nevada-Las Vegas (32)

Locks: New Mexico (10), Brigham Young (20)

Off the Bubble: San Diego State (38)

An oh-so-close, crushing double-overtime loss in New Mexico effectively ends San Diego State’s at-large chances, barring a miraculous run over the next month.  Instead, the power trio atop the MWC continues to beat up on each other and only each other (see: UNLV’s home dismantling of BYU).  Those three teams have a combined record of 60-10, and make no mistake about it: all of those teams are legit.

Northeast (1)

Auto: Robert Morris (158)

Ohio Valley (1)

Auto: Murray State (89)

Pac 10 (1)

Auto: California (25)

Off the Bubble: Washington (53), Arizona (70), Arizona State (74), Southern Cal (78)

If Cal falters in the Pac-10 Tournament, they might actually not receive an at-large bid (these things happen when your best non-league win is over Murray State).  The Bears have an 0-4 mark against the RPI Top 50 and a 3-7 record against the Top 100.  Washington looks fine aside from two facts: the Huskies are 6-5 in a bad conference, and they still have not won a game away from Seattle (0-6).  Those other “Off the Bubble” teams are just there as a courtesy to the memory of Pac-10 ball.  To wit: Arizona (4-8 neutral/road record, including a loss in Corvallis), Arizona State (nine of 16 wins against teams ranked 175 or worse in the RPI), and USC (home loss to #211 Loyola Marymount) don’t really belong on this list.

Patriot League (1)

Auto: Lehigh (163)

Southeastern (5)

Auto: Kentucky (5)

Locks: Vanderbilt (11), Tennessee (22)

On the Bubble: Mississippi (39), Florida (48)

Off the Bubble: South Carolina (71), Mississippi State (72)

It would be nice to give the “other” USC a little more credit after handing Kentucky its first loss, but the Gamecocks simply don’t have the profile or the standing (fifth in the SEC East) to justify a bid.  Mississippi State has fast fallen out of the picture, having lost four of five.  The rest of the SEC looks fine, though; Mississippi’s neutral-site win over Kansas State carries a lot of weight, as do Florida’s wins over Florida State and Michigan State (neutral).  This looks like a pretty solid five-bid conference.

Southern (1)

Auto: Charleston (107)

Southland (1)

Auto: Sam Houston State (77)

Southwestern Athletic (1)

Auto: Jackson State (250)

Summit League (1)

Auto: Oakland (69)

Sun Belt (1)

Auto: Arkansas State (160)

West Coast (2)

Auto: Gonzaga (24)

On the Bubble: Saint Mary’s (44)

For St. Mary’s, non-conference wins over New Mexico State, San Diego State, at Utah State, and vs. Northeastern didn’t impress at the time, but look increasingly good as those teams continue to climb the ladders of their respective conferences.  The big showdown – SMC @ Gonzaga – looms on Thursday, but that contest will likely determine only how much the Gaels have to sweat out their at-large bid on Selection Sunday.

Western Athletic (1)

Auto: New Mexico State (68)

Off the Bubble: Utah State (49)

The (NMSU) Aggies hold the tie-breakers over Utah State and former conference leader Louisiana Tech, but have no chance for an at-large bid.  The (USU) Aggies have a win over BYU and a pretty 17-6 record after its eighth straight win on Saturday, but lack the overall profile of an at-large dancer.  This is a three-horse race in a one-bid league.