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Bracketology undergoes some slight cosmetic changes this week, as we add “Last Four In,” “First Four Out,” and “Next Four Out” features.  A notable change in the actual NCAA Tournament picture, on the other hand, is much more drastic: the bubble is actually shrinking at the time of year it usually expands like it’s attached to a helium pump.  There are pretty clear-cut races for bids in many major conferences, including the ACC, Big Ten, Big XII, Pac-10, and SEC.  Of course, the bubble has to account for bids that may get “stolen” in early March - when a mid-major at-large lock loses its conference tournament, allowing an otherwise non-contender to take away a bid that would have gone to a major-conference bubble team - so by Selection Sunday, the bubble might only be three to four teams big when it usually challenges double digits.

So how does the NCAA Tournament field project at this time?

Below are the bids I expect each conference to receive, with the leagues listed in alphabetical order.  “Lock” signifies a team that would definitely earn an at-large bid if the season ended today.  The designation of “On the Bubble” represents teams with questionable tournament statuses, but whose tickets the selection committee would likely punch.  “Off the Bubble” teams are equally iffy, but in slightly worse positions to make the Big Dance.  A conference’s number of bids is the total of the one automatic bid, locks, and on the bubble teams.  Lastly, numbers in parentheses denote team Ratings Per Index, as per www.realtimerpi.com (and accurate as of last Tuesday).

Atlantic 10 (5)

Auto: Richmond (29)

Locks: Temple (12), Xavier (25)

On the Bubble: Rhode Island (26), Dayton (34)

Off the Bubble: Charlotte (51)

Despite a now glowing 22-point win at Louisville on its resume, Charlotte has found itself on the outside looking in after blowing a home game against a mediocre Duquesne team.  Blowout losses to Duke (by 42), Old Dominion (33), Tennessee (17), and Dayton (28), undercut the win at Louisville and conference victories at Richmond and against Temple.  Rhode Island is headed down the Charlotte path after a loss at Saint Louis, and four losses by five points or fewer damage URI’s cause.   So why pick the Rams over the 49ers?  Better computer numbers, fewer losses, and more consistency.  The March 3^rd meeting between the teams could serve as a virtual elimination game.

As for the rest of the conference, Richmond, Temple, and Xavier are securely in, while Dayton maintains a better-than-good shot at dancing in March.  A very attainable 4-2 stretch for the Flyers will probably secure for them a double-digit tournament seed.  Along with the Colonial, this remains one of the more intriguing conference races, as the number of at-large bids available to major-conference teams will fluctuate greatly base on how A-10 contenders perform over the season’s final month.

America East (1)

Auto: Stony Brook (146)

Atlantic Coast (7)

Auto: Duke (2)

Lock: Wake Forest (14)

On the Bubble: Georgia Tech (28), Clemson (35), Maryland (37), Florida State (40), Virginia Tech (47)

The ACC at-large picture is obviously the most clear-cut of any major conference.  The bottom line: these seven teams are easily in, and everyone else is easily out.  Because of poor non-conference performances, Virginia Tech and Maryland probably need to win 10 or 11 ACC games to sew up at-large berths.  The other five “in” teams can afford to finish at 8-8 and still feel relatively assured of tickets to the Big Dance.  Yes, it’s that simple.

Atlantic Sun (1)

Auto: Campbell (192)

Big East (7)

Auto: Syracuse (4)

Locks: Villanova (5), West Virginia (6), Georgetown (8), Pittsburgh (13)

On the Bubble: Louisville (30), Marquette (62)

Off the Bubble: Connecticut (48), Cincinnati (50), Seton Hall (54), South Florida (56)

Will the madness in the Big East ever stop?  After counting out Louisville (blowout loss at Saint John’s) and UConn (similar result at Cincinnati), those teams rebounded for road wins at Syracuse and Villanova, respectively.  Right now, the difference between “On the Bubble” Louisville and Marquette and the other five at-large hopefuls is simple: an above-.500 conference record.  All seven bubble teams have their flaws, so conference record is perhaps the best basis of comparison between them.  The stretch run will certainly continue get interesting in the Big East, with the seven bubble teams almost playing a round-robin over the season’s final month.  As they say, there are no nights off in this league.

Big Sky (1)

Auto: Weber State (72)

Big South (1)

Auto: Coastal Carolina (134)

Big Ten (5)

Auto: Michigan State (24)

Locks: Purdue (9), Wisconsin (15),

On the Bubble: Ohio State (42), Illinois (71)

Though this league has a clear top four teams, Illinois receives the Big Ten’s fifth at-large bid for a few reasons.  A 9-4 conference mark, including wins against Michigan State and at Wisconsin, is the biggest one.  The Illini have a few other good wins, including at Clemson and against Vanderbilt.  The pock mark keeping them around the bubble is that unsightly RPI.  Yet neutral-site losses to Utah and Bradley back in November artificially inflated that number; with wins there, I suspect Illinois is around 50 in the RPI.  The committee should be able to look past those flukes, after which all of Illinois’ good wins came.  Losses by Minnesota (at Northwestern) and Northwestern (against Penn State) effectively end those teams’ at-large hopes.

Big West (1)

Auto: Pacific (117)

Big XII (7)

Auto: Kansas (1)

Locks: Kansas State (7), Baylor (11), Texas A&M (17), Texas (27)

On the Bubble: Oklahoma State (32), Missouri (38)

Off the Bubble: Texas Tech (43)

The Big XII, for my money the most exciting league in college basketball, will produce five to seven NCAA Tournament berths this year.  Some changes this week: Baylor takes a huge step up to lock status thanks to wins against Mizzou and Texas Tech; Oklahoma State moves closer to lock status; and Texas, while not in contention to lose its lock status, has officially announced its intention to not compete for a Final  Four spot as many in the preseason thought it would.  Texas Tech would seem to be in better position considering its solid RPI, but the Red Raiders are 4-7 in conference play and have shown an inability to beat quality competition on the road.

Colonial Athletic (3)

Auto: Northeastern (59)

On the Bubble: Old Dominion (41), William & Mary (46)

Off the Bubble: Virginia Commonwealth (65)

Admittedly, I have probably been overvaluing the CAA on a consistent basis.  This is probably a one-bid league if ODU wins the conference tournament; the Monarchs are the only team with secure at-large standing.  A sweep of Old Dominion (the teams play again on 2/27) would help VCU improve its RPI and add a quality road win, but with consecutive losses at the Founding Fathers - George Mason and James Madison - the Rams are off the bubble for now.  Despite a gaudy 13-3 conference mark, Northeastern - which lost twice to, of all teams, Drexel - needs to win the CAA Tournament for a Dance ticket.  W&M certainly has the non-conference resume to make a legitimate claim for an at-large berth (wins against  Richmond, at Wake Forest, and at Maryland), but has only revived its chances thanks to a recent four-game win streak.  The Tribe will probably finish 13-5 in the conference, which right now is enough for a bid and last four in status.

Conference USA (2)

Auto: UTEP (58)

On the Bubble: Alabama Birmingham (31)

Off the Bubble: Memphis (61), Marshall (63), Tulsa (70)

While UTEP remains in position to win the regular season C-USA crown, the Miners lack the overall profile of an at-large contender.  And although Memphis is making a charge at an at-large bid, Josh Pastner’s team is a year away from getting back to the Big Dance.  Marshall and Tulsa are non-factors, though their RPIs are good enough to give them a quick shout-out here.  Even the league’s only serious at-large contender, UAB, has yet to firmly stake its claim to an extra bid.  The C-USA would be lucky to receive two berths this year.

Horizon League (1)

Auto: Butler (22)

Ivy League (1)

Auto: Cornell (55)

Metro Atlantic Athletic (1)

Auto: Siena (33)

Mid American (1)

Auto: Kent State (58)

Mid-Eastern Athletic (1)

Auto: Morgan State (121)

Missouri Valley (1)

Auto: Northern Iowa (23)

Off the Bubble: Wichita State (53)

Though the Shockers have a nice 6-6 road/neutral mark, an average RPI, and a split with Northern Iowa, they are not a serious threat to earn an at-large berth.  Meanwhile, the Panthers’ gaudy 11-3 road/neutral mark enhances their overall record, and they probably will not need to beat Old Dominion in Friday’s Bracket Buster match-up to earn an at-large bid.

Mountain West (3)

Auto: New Mexico (10)

Locks: Brigham Young (19), Nevada-Las Vegas (44)

Off the Bubble: San Diego State (39)

With back-to-back road losses to San Diego State and Utah, UNLV moves perilously close to the bubble with a 7-5 MWC mark.  That makes three losses in a row for the Runnin’ Rebels, who should win their final four conference games.  If they make it to 11-5 and the MWC Finals, they probably have enough juice for an at-large bid; if not, the selection committee may look upon this recent stretch and say, “No, thanks.”  San Diego State, meanwhile, has the computer profile to make it to the Dance, but lacks quality wins both out of conference and away from home.  The Aztecs will have to make at least the finals of the MWC Tournament to earn a look from the selection committee.  UNM and BYU are both three-loss teams that will destroy the brackets of those who undervalue mid-major teams in March.

Northeast (1)

Auto: Robert Morris (159)

Ohio Valley (1)

Auto: Murray State (79)

Pac 10 (1)

Auto: California (21)

Off the Bubble: Washington (52), Arizona State (67), Southern Cal (82)

Treat this league like the WAC or Horizon: if the team currently in first loses in the conference tournament, it’s a two-bid league.  If not, it’s a one-berth situation.  Washington declared its contention for an at-large bid by finally winning on the road, but “at Stanford” won’t count for anything in the committee’s eyes.  The Huskies could have really strengthened their resume by winning in Berkeley, but they will have to settle for an NIT bid unless they win the Pac-10 Tournament.  Speaking of Cal, the Bears have shown through fairly one-sided losses against Syracuse, at Kansas, and at Washington that they will not be a factor in the NCAA Tournament, but hey, at least they’ll make it one way or another.  Arizona State has a good record (18-8) and a manageable RPI, and USC has quality wins in abundance, but both are non-factors for a tournament berth.

Patriot League (1)

Auto: Lehigh (170)

Southeastern (3)

Auto: Kentucky (3)

Locks: Vanderbilt (16), Tennessee (20)

Off the Bubble: Mississippi (49), Florida (60), Mississippi State (64), South Carolina (76)

Nothing need be said about Vandy, UT, and UK - those three are primed to do damage in the Big Dance.  The rest of the SEC is a bit of a mess, however.  With games remaining against each of the top four SEC teams in terms of RPI, Florida has the best shot of playing its way onto the right side of the bubble; however, considering how the Gators have fared in big games this year, there’s hardly a good chance of that circumstance coming to fruition.  Mississippi is next in the pecking order, but its only in-conference win against a fellow bubble team (and that’s even a stretch) is against South Carolina.  Mississippi State swept Ole Miss and could have made a huge statement by beating Kentucky at home, but poor defense down the stretch and dubious officiating negated that opportunity.  South Carolina isn’t really an at-large team, but it remains the only school to beat Kentucky, and that’s got to count for something, right?

Southern (1)

Auto: Charleston (106)

Southland (1)

Auto: Sam Houston State (69)

Southwestern Athletic (1)

Auto: Jackson State (218)

Summit League (1)

Auto: Oakland (66)

Sun Belt (1)

Auto: North Texas (138)

West Coast (2)

Auto: Gonzaga (24)

On the Bubble: Saint Mary’s (45)

Saint Mary’s has not exactly earned an at-large bid to this point, with a 2-3 record against the RPI top 50 that includes an 0-2 mark against WCC heavyweight Gonzaga.  But the Gaels are 20-5, own an impressive 9-3 road/neutral record, and stand a good chance of an at-large berth despite losing at Portland last week.  If they make it back to the finals of the conference tournament, their overall record, RPI, and decent wins (a 5-5 mark against the RPI top 100) will make it hard for the selection committee to ignore SMC, especially if the bubble continues to contract.

Western Athletic (1)

Auto: Utah State (36)

Off the Bubble: Nevada (68), Louisiana Tech (73), New Mexico State (74)

Winner of 11 consecutive games, Utah State has a chance to enter a March 6^th battle for the WAC regular season title with New Mexico State on a 13-game winning streak.  The Aggies, who have a marquee win (against BYU) on their resume, are probably an at-large team if they lose in the WAC Finals.  None of these other teams are in at-large contention, but one of them will usurp the conference’s at-large bid if USU stumbles in the conference tournament.  Keep an eye on this league: it could become a “stolen bid” situation on Selection Sunday.

Last Four In

Marquette

UNLV

William & Mary

Saint Mary’s

First Four Out

San Diego State

UConn

Florida

Cincinnati

Next Four Out

South Florida

Mississippi

Charlotte

VCU