Wahoo Wire

With the conference tournaments closing in and many teams looking like they’ve clinched a ticket to the Big Dance, Bracketology this week will focus on the bubble teams.  Below are run-downs for every conference with at least one at-large contender, along with each team’s chances of making it in if they fail to win their league tournament.  Numbers in parentheses denote team Ratings Per Index, as per www.realtimerpi.com (and accurate as of last Thursday, February 25).

Atlantic 10

Temple (13) - At 23-5, one of the better teams no one is talking about - probably because they’ve had a bid wrapped up since beating Villanova in December.  Chances: In

Xavier (14) - Unlike most Xavier teams, this one failed to post eye-catching wins in the non-conference schedule.  X is still a lock, though.  Chances: In

Richmond (25) - On an eight-game winning streak, the Spiders could really burst some brackets next month.  Chances: In

Rhode Island (27) - URI is one of the more interesting at-large cases.  The Rams’ non-conference resume is average - the best win being a neutral-court victory over Oklahoma State - and their computer profile is strong.  But at 8-5 in conference play (even in a better-than-average A-10), the Rams are not done proving themselves to the selection committee.  If they win out in the regular season - and they should - they will probably go dancing.  Chances: Good

Dayton (43) - Despite two good non-conference wins (Georgia Tech and Old Dominion), Dayton is squarely on the bubble thanks to a 9-7 A-10 record, including a 2-5 mark in league road games.  The Flyers will have to win at Richmond on March 4 to put themselves back in the at-large picture.  Chances: Not great

Charlotte (56) - A December win at Louisville looks better than ever, and Charlotte gets a chance to finish a season sweep of Richmond in the season finale.  But the 49ers have lost three of four - two of those losses at home - to all but seal their NIT fate.  They need to win out until the A-10 Tournament finals to get back in the at-large discussion.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 4

Atlantic Coast

Duke (2) - The Blue Devils are 9-3 against the RPI top 50, and 16-3 against the top 100.  Chances: In

Wake Forest (21) - Despite oodles of talent and a strong RPI, this Wake team has yet to play up to its potential.  This is a make-or-break team in March.  Chances: In

Maryland (28) - The Terps have won six of seven to really pad their computer numbers and help their at-large odds.  That buzzer-beater over Georgia Tech may have turned the season around for this squad.  Chances: Good

Florida State (32) - Because its best non-league win came against Marquette, FSU needs to keep winning ACC games to make the NCAA Tournament.  They stand at 8-5, with three winnable games left; a 9-7 finish would really jeopardize its at-large status.  Chances: Good

Georgia Tech (34) - At 6-7 in conference play, the Yellow Jackets could really use an 8-8 ACC record to boost their at-large hopes.  With BC and VT still to head down to Atlanta, GT should get the necessary wins to achieve .500.  Without that win over Duke, they would almost be a non-factor.  Chances: Average

Clemson (37) - The Tigers missed out on a chance to sweep the Terrapins, and now have to gear up to play at Florida State, Georgia Tech, and at Wake to close the season.  One win out of those three should work for Clemson, which has largely avoided its typical late-season swoon in 2009-2010.  Chances: Good

Virginia Tech (47) - Leaving its game in Blacksburg burnt Virginia Tech as it lost by 20 at Boston College on Wednesday.  Now, the Hokies - despite a 21-6 (8-5) record - have some serious image rehab to do.  They close with a reasonable schedule (Maryland, NC State, at Georgia Tech), and winning their two remaining home games should cinch a bid.  Chances: Average

Expected Bids: 7

Big East

Syracuse (4) - ‘Cuse is 11-0 in road/neutral sites, with seven of those wins coming against RPI top 100 teams.  Chances: In

West Virginia (5) - WVU has quietly lost three out of five, and still has to play Georgetown and at Villanova.  Chances: In

Villanova (8) - The Wildcats beat USF to snap a two-game skid, and while they probably fell out of contention for a one seed, they are still a Final Four-caliber squad.  Chances: In

Georgetown (9) - Austin Freeman’s ability to score in key moments will be crucial for Georgetown, which is 4-4 against RPI top 25 opponents (all are currently in the top 16).  Chances: In

Pittsburgh (10) - Jamie Dixon should be a National Coach of the Year candidate, considering his team is 10-5 in a murderous Big East without any discernable NBA talent on the roster.  Chances: In

Connecticut (40) - It will be interesting to see if the selection committee weights the loss of Coach Jim Calhoun (whom the Huskies were 3-4 without) like the loss of a player.  If it does, that’s great news for UConn, which still needs to win two of its last three (Louisville, at Notre Dame, at South Florida) to finish .500 in the Big East.  This team is playing at its peak, and will be dangerous if it makes the Dance.  Chances: Average

Louisville (41) - The most unpredictable team out there, Louisville has won at Syracuse and has also lost at home to Charlotte by 22.  The Cardinals own a 6-9 record against the RPI top 100, a number distorted by a 1-5 mark against elite (top 10) foes.  One or two Big East Tournament wins gets this team in.  Chances: Good

Seton Hall (52) - The Hall might be the worst good team (or is that the best bad team?) around.  The Pirates have a 3-9 record against RPI top 50 competition, a record good enough to prove that they just aren’t good enough.  Chances: Poor

Marquette (55) - Two overtime wins at Cincinnati and at Saint John’s pushed Marquette’s conference record to 9-6.  The Golden Eagles’ last three games are at Seton Hall, Louisville, and Notre Dame - two victories in that bunch would seal the deal.  Chances: Average

Cincinnati (59) - Despite non-league wins over Vanderbilt and Maryland, the Bearcats are in a tough spot: they stand at 7-8 in conference, with “at West Virginia,” “Villanova,” and “at Georgetown” the last three games on the schedule.  One win there still probably wouldn’t cut it, unless Cincy went on a run in the conference tournament.  Chances: Not great

South Florida (66) - A good team in an impossibly deep league, South Florida needs a run to the Big East finals to have hope for an at-large bid.  Chances: Poor

Notre Dame (72) - See Florida, South.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 8

Big Ten

Purdue (7) - The loss of Robbie Hummel for the season severely damages Purdue’s Final Four hopes.  Chances: In

Wisconsin (17) - The Badgers have stumbled a bit lately, losing to Illinois and at Minnesota, but they are still a team with a Final Four ceiling (as evidenced by their December win over Duke).  Chances: In

Michigan State (26) - Sparty has lost four of six, including two at home, but is still in the running for the Big Ten regular season title.  Chances: In

Ohio State (31) - How many shooting guards do you know average nine rebounds and six assists per game?  Oh, right, just Evan Turner.  Chances: In

Illinois (63) - The Illini still have to host Minnesota and Wisconsin and play at Ohio State.  Two wins in that stretch may not be good enough.  Weirdly, Illinois is 6-3 on the road but 0-5 at neutral sites.  Chances: Good

Minnesota (80) - Technically still on the bubble thanks to home wins against Wisconsin and Butler, The Golden Gophers will have to overcome a 3-8 road/neutral record to earn an at-large bid.  Tubby Smith shouldn’t hold his breath.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 5

Big XII

Kansas (1) - Kansas started the year as #1 and will enter the NCAA Tournament the odds-on favorite to win it all.  Chances: In

Kansas State (6) - K-State remains a long shot for a one seed, but has surprised some (including yours truly) with their consistent play this year.  Chances: In

Baylor (12) - The RPI is inflated given only four wins against RPI top 50 competition, but there’s no doubting Baylor’s quality as a team.  Chances: In

Texas A&M (18) - The Aggies have quietly won seven of 10, having played five road games and seven games against the RPI top 100 in that stretch.  Chances: In

Texas (22) - The Longhorns righted the ship with a win over Oklahoma State, but injuries and their reliance on freshman might doom them in March.  Chances: In

Oklahoma State (33) - Unremarkable records in conference play (7-6) and against the RPI top 50 (3-6) keep the Pokes on the bubble, but if they reach .500 in the Big XII, they should go dancing.  Chances: Good

Missouri (39) - The Tigers still get two more chances for quality wins, at Kansas State and against Kansas.  It’s really only a matter of seeding for Mizzou.  Chances: Good

Texas Tech (51) - The Red Raiders have to win out and make the Big XII finals for a shot at an at-large berth.  In the words of Lloyd Christmas, “So, you’re saying there’s a chance?”  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 7

Colonial Athletic

Old Dominion (42) - ODU’s stock is dropping after its Bracket Buster loss at Northern Iowa, but the Monarchs still have the quality wins (6-7 against the RPI top 100) to earn an at-large bid.  Chances: Good

William & Mary (57) - The Good: non-league wins against Richmond, at Wake Forest, at Maryland.  The Bad: six conference wins by three points or less, not all of them against good teams.  The Ugly: three sub-200 RPI losses.  The committee will pass.  Chances: Not great

Virginia Commonwealth (62) - The Rams haven’t received much at-large love despite non-league wins against Nevada, Richmond, and Rhode Island.  The middling RPI, coupled with four sub-100 RPI losses, probably has something to do with that.  Chances: Poor

Northeastern (76) - Despite a 13-4 conference record, the Huskies have little chance at an at-large berth thanks to a bad RPI and six sub-100 RPI losses.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 2

Conference USA

UTEP (46) - Despite an 11-game winning streak and a clear domination of C-USA, the Miners’ non-existent non-conference profile (best part of the resume: a split with New Mexico State) cripples their at-large chances.  They need to make the C-USA finals for an at-large bid.  Chances: Poor

UAB (30) - The Blazers have a good RPI, a 22-5 record, and a 5-4 record against the RPI top 100.  It surprises me that Joe Lunardi consistently has them on his Last Four In list.  Chances: Good

Memphis (69) - A loss at Houston really hurts Memphis’ chances for a bid.  The Tigers might return to the elite next year, but will have to settle for the NIT this season.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 2

Horizon League

Butler (16) - The only at-large contender in this league, Butler is a lock for the Dance.  The question is whether or not the Bulldogs will falter in the Horizon Tournament, allowing the HL to steal a bid from a major-conference team.  Chances: In

Expected Bids: 1

Ivy League

Cornell (49) - A 21-4 record means next to nothing if the best victory on your resume is at Saint John’s, currently 75 in the RPI.  The Big Red have a shot at a first-round upset, but not at an at-large bid.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 1

Metro Atlantic Athletic

Siena (36) - Another interesting case, Siena is 22-6 but 0-4 against the RPI top 50.  The body of work leaves a lot to be desired, but thankfully for the Saints, they will probably roll through the MAAC Tournament.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 1

Missouri Valley

Northern Iowa (23) - Unlike other mid-majors, UNI’s 24-4 mark includes nine wins over the RPI top 100.  Unless they go down in the MVC Tournament (likely given the conference’s history of parity), the Panthers have a true shot at a top-half NCAA Tournament seed.  Chances: Good

Wichita State (53) - Wichita State is on this list more for what they might do in the postseason - beat UNI in the conference tournament and steal a bid.  Their at-large chances, though, are minimal.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 2

Mountain West

New Mexico (11) - Saturday’s showdown at BYU will be a great game, and could provide a three seed for the winner.  Chances: In

Brigham Young (19) - The Cougars are 8-3 against the RPI top 100, and their worst loss (in terms of RPI) was at UNLV.  Chances: In

San Diego State (38) - San Diego State is another team whose status is virtually unknown.  The Aztecs have a big disadvantage in that they lost to another bubble team, Saint Mary’s, by 22.  Ultimately, a 2-4 record against RPI top 50 teams does little to demonstrate the ability to compete at a high level, and this lack of a significant track record against elite competition will probably doom SDSU.  Chances: Average

Nevada-Las Vegas (44) - Though they sit in a tie with SDSU for third in the conference, UNLV has a significant leg up because of four non-conference RPI top 100 wins, compared to two for the Aztecs (and those two were against 96 and 99).  The Runnin’ Rebels also split against UNM and BYU, and as a result appear poised for a middling seed in the NCAA Tournament.  Chances: Good

Expected Bids: 3

Pac 10

California (24) - Cal’s RPI is aided tremendously by their non-conference schedule, which including losses to Syracuse, New Mexico, and Kansas.  Cal is 0-4 against the RPI top 50, but 6-7 against the top 100.  If the committee is serious about considering a school’s “entire body of work,” they will deny the Bears an at-large bid; however, if their RPI continues to hover in the mid-20s, they will be hard to ignore come Selection Sunday.  Chances: Average

Arizona State (54) - A late charger on the at-large scene, ASU has a huge game coming up tomorrow at Cal.  If the Sun Devils can pull it out, they would push their record against the RPI top 100 to 5-7 and their road/neutral mark to 7-5.  But because ASU’s two best wins are home victories over San Diego State and Washington, it needs a serious end-of-the-year rally to earn a more serious look from the selection committee.  Chances: Not great

Washington (64) - Washington is not a realistic at-large contender.  If the Huskies advance to the Pac-10 Tournament finals, the selection committee will have to look at them a bit longer than usual, though they still would probably pass.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 1

Southeastern

Kentucky (3) - What more needs to be said?  The sensational freshmen at Kentucky continue to take every team’s best shot and move forward with a victory.  Chances: In

Vanderbilt (15) - Vandy missed out on a chance to possibly sew up a top-four seed in their loss to Kentucky a week ago, but still looks like a Sweet 16 team.  Chances: In

Tennessee (20) - The Volunteers have had an up-and-down year, but are still a lock for the NCAA Tournament.  They can compete with anyone (one-point loss to Purdue, beat Kansas) and falter against anyone (22-point loss at Southern Cal).  Chances: In

Florida (45) - With the home win over Tennessee, Florida moves to a terrific 9-4 in a loaded SEC East, though the Gators still must host Vanderbilt and travel to Kentucky.  Still, 10 wins in this division should be enough for UF, which is looking to end a two-year absence from the Big Dance.  Chances: Good

Mississippi State (58) - After coming up just short against Kentucky, only a run to the SEC finals will earn MSU an at-large bid.  The Bulldogs have four sub-100 RPI losses to counteract only five RPI top 100 wins, and the 8-5 record in the SEC looks worse considering it’s the SEC West.  Chances: Not great

Mississippi (61) - The Rebels hope that their December win over Kansas State will propel them toward an at-large bid, but a 6-7 record in a below-average division says otherwise.  They are 0-5 in their last five games against RPI top 50 teams.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 4

West Coast

Gonzaga (29) - The Bulldogs have stumbled on the road at times, losing against San Francisco and Loyola Marymount.  But this team still has enough juice to make the Sweet 16.  Chances: In

Saint Mary’s (50) - With a 5-5 record against the RPI top 100 and a 10-3 road/neutral record, Saint Mary’s seems to be in good position to earn an at-large berth.  But the fact that they lost twice to Gonzaga by a combined 26 points complicates matters.  They have wins over San Diego State and at Utah State, but also lost to USC and Portland.  If the Gaels make it to the WCC finals and stay close with the Zags, the selection committee should let them in.  As of this moment, though, their status is still up in the air.  Chances: Average

Expected Bids: 1

Western Athletic

Utah State (35) - With a 13-game winning streak and a win over BYU as the feather in its cap, USU’s at-large bids look better by the day.  The Aggies are the only at-large contender in the conference.  Chances: Good

Expected Bids: 1