Wahoo Wire

In case you haven’t noticed, less than four days remain until Selection Sunday, and the pressure is on for teams to secure their tickets to the Big Dance.  Luckily for the major conference teams on the bubble, the mid- and low-major conference tournaments have proceeded as expected, meaning the number of available at-large bids has yet to shrink appreciably.  Butler and Old Dominion did teams like Notre Dame and Georgia Tech a favor by winning their conference tournaments and not allowing the runners-up, Wright State and William & Mary, to steal bids.  Now, it’s up to the big boys to prove they deserve sports in the field of 65.

First, the 14 teams who have already clinched berths:

East Tennessee State – Atlantic Sun

Montana – Big Sky

Winthrop – Big South

Old Dominion – Colonial

Butler – Horizon

Cornell – Ivy

Siena – Metro Atlantic

Northern Iowa – Missouri Valley

Robert Morris – Northeastern

Murray State – Ohio Valley

Wofford – Southern

Oakland – Summit

North Texas – Sun Belt

St. Mary’s – Western Athletic

Now, the 34 teams that will earn a berth regardless of whether or not they win their conference tournament championships – the so-called “locks.”

Atlantic Coast

Duke

Maryland

Clemson

Wake Forest

Florida State

Virginia Tech

Atlantic 10

Temple

Xavier

Richmond

Big East

Syracuse

West Virginia

Villanova

Pittsburgh

Georgetown

Louisville

Marquette

Big Ten

Purdue

Wisconsin

Michigan State

Ohio State

Big XII

Kansas

Kansas State

Baylor

Texas A&M

Texas

Oklahoma State

Missouri

Conference USA

UTEP

Mountain West

New Mexico

Brigham Young

Southeastern

Kentucky

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

West Coast

Gonzaga

Six conferences have yet to declare a representative to the NCAA Tournament.  They will all determine champions in the next few days, but none of their members are threats to earn an at-large bid.

America East (favorite: Vermont)

Big West (California-Santa Barbara)

Mid-Eastern (Morgan State)

Patriot (Lehigh)

Southland (Sam Houston State)

Southwestern (Jackson State)

Now, here’s where it gets interesting.  The above teams and conferences leave 11 bids available to the rest of the bubble.  Here’s a rundown of the teams still realistically vying for a spot, and their relative odds of making it.  The numbers in parentheses are a team’s Ratings Per Index, according to www.realtimerpi.com and accurate as of Tuesday.

California (20) – The Golden Bears, with their Pac-10 regular season title and pretty RPI, are pretty much assured of an at-large berth.  But they are only 1-5 against RPI top 50 opponents, and they only get that mark because Washington has recently crept up to 50 in those rankings.  Cal is a much better 5-6 against the top 100, but they should not be counted on to win a game in the NCAA Tournament – or really even the Pac-10 tournament.  Chances: Good

Utah State (31) – USU has ripped off 15 straight wins, including 12 by double digits, to really enhance its at-large profile.  The Aggies are 9-4 against the RPI top 100 and 2-1 against the top 50, including a huge win over BYU.  While there’s not a ton to love about this profile, there’s almost nothing to hate about it, either.  Chances: Good

San Diego State (36) – Although SDSU has two unsightly losses – at Pacific and at Wyoming – the Aztecs have a strong RPI and are in relatively good shape.  Home wins over Arizona, New Mexico, and UNLV are their only wins against the RPI top 100, and they are 3-6 vs. such foes.  But a third-place tie in the MWC, with a first-round conference tournament match-up against Colorado State, shape up favorably for San Diego State – though I have them rated much lower than does Joe Lunardi.  Chances: Average

Alabama-Birmingham (40) – This marks quite a slip for the Blazers, who at one time looked like a safe bet to go dancing.  However, UAB was swept by UTEP and Memphis, and now stands third in the conference.  A C-USA semifinal match-up with Memphis could serve as a virtual elimination game, so we won’t know more about the Blazers’ status until Friday.  Chances: Average

Rhode Island (42) – The Rams have absolutely collapsed, falling from near-lock status to the fringe of the bubble conversation: twice in the season’s final week did they fall to a sub-100 RPI team.  URI owns a 9-6 record at road and neutral sites and a 6-6 mark against the top 100, but finished fifth in the uber-competitive A-10.  A lack of marquee wins seriously hurts Rhode Island, who will have to lean on a neutral-court win over Oklahoma State unless they beat both St. Louis and Temple in the Atlantic-10 tournament.  Chances: Not great

Kent State (43) – This is probably a reach, but the Golden Flashes have come on strong to force the selection committee to view them as an at-large contender.  KSU has won 13 of 14 to move to 22-8 (13-3), and has a non-league win over UAB to its credit.  However, Kent State’s second-best win in terms of RPI came against (69) Wofford, and the MAC has not been a multi-bid league for several years.  It would be a shock to see the Flashes make the tournament without sweeping its first post-season.  Chances: Poor

Georgia Tech (44) – The Yellow Jackets have the talent of many “lock” teams, but are on the bubble because, frankly, they’re not that good.  GT is 5-9 at road/neutral sites, and has lost its last six away from Atlanta.  A 7-9 finish in the ACC is unimpressive, but wins against Duke and Clemson continue to look good.  Wins in the ACC tournament against UNC and Maryland (if they beat UNC) would likely seal the deal, but who would bet on Paul Hewitt’s club right now?  Chances: Good

Memphis (46) – Josh Pastner’s squad has made a late charge into the thick of the bubble conversation, thanks to a 7-5 record against the RPI top 100 and a 13-3 conference mark.  The Tigers have three sub-100 RPI losses and only two top 50 wins, both against UAB.  If the committee weights late-season performance more than the mythical “body of work,” Memphis’ chances increase.  Chances: Average

Nevada-Las Vegas (48) – Despite a poor RPI, the Rebels are a likely contender to go dancing.  Records of 7-4 against the RPI top 100, 11-5 in the MWC, and 10-4 in road/neutral games are sure to catch the committee’s eye.  Though UNLV can ill afford a third loss to Utah in the conference tournament, it still looks good compared to other bubble teams.  Chances: Good

Dayton (49) – As the seventh-place team in a conference that will get, at most, four bids, the Flyers’ at-large hopes are in serious peril.  The Flyers are 3-7 against the RPI top 50 and 5-9 against the top 100, but finished .500 in the A-10.  UD needs to beat Xavier in the quarterfinals, then Richmond in the semis, to earn two more high-end victories and have a shot at an at-large bid.  Chances: Poor

Washington (50) – The Huskies are in better position than fellow at-large pretender Arizona State, contrary to Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology update.  Washington is 6-5 against the RPI top 100 and 2-2 against the top 50, with the most impressive win at home against Texas A&M.  With a season split against ASU, the teams’ potential Pac-10 semis match-up will be a virtual elimination game.  Chances: Average

Florida (53) – Sitting pretty two weeks ago, the Gators have lost their past three games to finish 9-7 in the SEC.  Of the Gators’ 11 losses, eight have come against RPI top 25 competition.  UF has proved it’s not elite, but a 7-10 record against the top 100 (5-2 against 26 through 100) may be enough for an at-large spot.  Conference tournament games against Auburn and Mississippi State are vital if Florida is to avoid a third straight season without appearing in the NCAA Tournament.  Chances: Average

Arizona State (54) – The Sun Devils have won six of seven to force their way back into the at-large picture and finish second in the Pac-10.  But ASU is a mere 3-7 against the RPI top 100, and 2-6 against the top 50.  Even if Herb Sendek’s squad makes the conference tournament finals, beating Washington in the process, an at-large bid is no sure thing.  Chances: Not great

Mississippi (56) – Ole Miss has to hope its December win over Kansas State carries a lot of weight with the selection committee, because 9-7 in the SEC West and an RPI of 56 aren’t too impressive.  The Rebs will likely have to beat Tennessee and Kentucky – making the SEC finals in the process – to win back the favor of the committee.  Chances: Poor

Notre Dame (57) – Notre Dame was rightfully left for dead a month ago, when it sat at 6-8 in the Big East and lost all-everything forward Luke Harangody to injury.  But the Fighting Irish have reeled off four great wins in a row and are in solid position for a bid.  Depending on how much the bubble shrinks in the coming days, Notre Dame will have to sweat out its at-large spot to varying degrees, thanks to its poor non-conference performance.  But consider Mike Brey’s team all but in.  Chances: Good

Mississippi State (68) – The Bulldogs have the odds stacked against them for an NCAA Tournament berth.  MSU swept Mississippi and won the SEC West, but only owns one victory over an RPI top 50 team.  With four sub-100 RPI losses, Jarvis Varnado & crew have some serious work cut out for them in the conference tournament.  Chances: Poor

Illinois (75) – After a late season collapse, it’s hard to determine where Illinois stands in the bubble conversation.  The Illini stood at 9-4 in the Big Ten just four weeks ago, yet have lost five of six to imperil their at-large chances.  Illinois has four RPI top 30 victories and is 10-8 in the conference, but has three sub-100 RPI losses and a meek 5-11 record against the top 100.  Its match-up Friday against Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament is an absolute must-win.  Chances: Average

Minnesota (77) - The Golden Gophers are only in this conversation because Illinois is.  Minnesota has a comparable RPI, a comparable conference record (9-9 for Tubby Smith’s squad), and won at Illinois a few weeks ago.  They own high-end victories over Butler, Wisconsin, and Ohio State, and are 4-7 against the RPI top 100.  Minnesota might have to make the finals of the Big Ten tourney – which would involve beating Michigan State and probably Purdue – to earn an at-large spot.  Chances: Not great

Projected last 11 bids, in order of likelihood:

Notre Dame

UNLV

California

Georgia Tech

Florida

Utah State

Washington

Illinois

Memphis

San Diego State

Alabama-Birmingham

Projected last four out:

Rhode Island

Arizona State

Minnesota

Mississippi State

On the outside looking in:

Mississippi

Kent State

Dayton

Seton Hall (season over)