Wahoo Wire

Midwest Region

East Region

West Region

Play-In Game

Winthrop over Arkansas Pine-Bluff

The Eagles are tournament regulars and they have a history of knocking off big name schools in March.  This may not be one of those games but APB’s defensive numbers are sorely lacking meaning the Eagles should take care of business.

Round 1

1 Duke over 16 Winthrop

I may have just said that Winthrop has knocked off some big opponents, but this is more than they can handle.  Look for Duke’s defense to suffocate the Eagles for an easy win.

9 Louisville over 8 California

Louisville is a maddening team (no wonder Pitino’s hair is gray).  They played great against the then number one team in the nation (Syracuse) and then let Cincinnati beat them in the Big East tournament not even six days later?  Which team are we going to get?  I’m betting on the good enough to knock off the best team in the worst major conference: Big East physicality over PAC-10 mediocrity.

12 Utah State over 5 Texas A&M

The beloved 5-12 upset!  Many think that the best bet for this is in the East region but this one looks possible as well.  Utah State can score with the best of them but they can also play great defense.  Put those two together and you have a fighting chance.  Meanwhile, A&M’s defensive numbers aren’t stellar for a tournament team so that doesn’t bode well for the Aggies.

13 Siena over 4 Purdue

This one isn’t really fair since Purdue are not even close to the same team without Robbie Hummel.  Hummel went down with a season ending injury a few weeks ago and the Boilermakers have struggled in his absence (losing by 20 to Minnesota in the Big 10 tourney?  Uh oh).  And Siena is no slouch as well.  Coach Fran McCaffery has led the team to three straight tournaments and their performances keep getting better every year.

6 Notre Dame over 11 ODU

Notre Dame is very efficient in terms of scoring, they have Luke Harangody back to almost full strength, and they’re playing their best basketball of the season right now.  While ODU could be a tough out, look for the Irish to provide an extra few days of St. Patty’s celebrations.

3 Baylor over 14 Sam Houston State

First off, congratulations to the Baylor program for their impressive climb.  They were in total disarray not five years ago, so to have the season they had is quite the accomplishment.  By the numbers, this game looks very even and when that happens, it’s usually a good bet to ride the chalk.

10 Saint Mary’s over 7 Richmond

7-10 matchups are my least favorites to pick.  The teams are usually even and one of them may have enough juice to knock off the 2 seed next round, so they can burn you if you pick wrong.  The Spiders put up a fight in the A-10 Tournament to earn their spot here but Saint Mary’s is absolutely rolling after trouncing Gonzaga in the WCC Tourney.  Richmond has below average scoring numbers, so look for the Gaels to advance.

2 Villanova over 15 Robert Morris

The Colonials don’t score quite enough and don’t defend well enough to balance that fact.  Throw in a hungry Scottie Reynolds for the Wildcats and you’ve got yourself a W.

Round 2

9 Louisville over 1 Duke

After seeing Duke three times this weekend, I can say that I wasn’t impressed at all.  They needed quite a bit of luck to knock off us, Miami, and Georgia Tech: three teams in the bottom half of the conference.  Louisville is athletic enough to shut down Scheyer and quick enough to limit Smith.  That leaves Singler to carry the load (which he is capable of) but to bet on that or the Plumblees and Zoubek to produce points is a pretty risky one.

13 Siena over 12 Utah State

I think tournament experience is the deciding factor in this one.  Siena has played on Day 2 before while this will be a new experience for the Utah State players.  I feel like that experience coupled with their stellar defense will propel the Saints to the Sweet 16.

3 Baylor over 6 Notre Dame

The Bears have all the tools to stifle the Irish.  They have size to limit Harangody (especially if he isn’t 100%) plus the guards to bother sharpshooter Ben Hansbrough (yes, Tyler’s brother).  They may put up a fight, but look for the Irish to bow out over the weekend.

2 Villanova over 10 Saint Mary’s

This one could be close.  After seeing Saint Mary’s performance against Gonzaga, I won’t be shocked if they top the Wildcats.  ‘Nova hasn’t played well the last month and could be vulnerable here, but I think their Round 1 victory steadies their confidence and their talent and physical guard game lead them to Houston.

SWEET 16

9 Louisville over 13 Siena

If the Cardinals’ Edgar Sosa goes totally cold, then this might be the Saints’ day.  He is the main source of offense for Louisville and with the way Siena plays defense, the Cardinals are going to need their big guns to be firing.  I think the Saints’ run ends here as Louisville provides too big a physical challenge for them to deal with.

2 Villanova over 3 Baylor

This is a great matchup but I see the Wildcats taking care of business because they’ve been there before.  Baylor probably has a size advantage in the post, but threes are worth more than twos and Villanova can hit them from four different positions.  This may be one of the best games of the tournament.

ELITE 8

2 Villanova over 9 Louisville

A battle between Big East rivals who know each other well.  In their only regular season matchup, Villanova went home with an eight-point win.  I think the fact they only faced each other once works in “Nova’s favor because they are the more talented team.  Usually, if a team plays another more than three times in a season, the weaker team tends to do well in that last contest.  The Wildcats have more talent and I think that carries them to their second straight Final Four.