East Region

South Region

Midwest Region

As the Wahoo Wire Bracketologist, I feel that I may have let some folks down by failing to foresee Virginia Tech’s NCAA Tournament snub – my only miss in the field of 65 this year (I had Florida out in the Hokies’ stead).  I suppose 33 out of 34 at-large teams isn’t bad, but I’d still like to make it up… by nailing the West Region.  Here’s a rundown of that 16-team bracket in the lower-left corner of your computer screen, and yeah, it’ll probably be wrong, too.

The Favorites

While many griped about the favorable road awarded Duke, few observers noted an even easier path to Indianapolis placed before Syracuse.  The advancement to the Final Four of any team besides the top two seeds will be a huge upset.

Syracuse – The prohibitive favorite in this region, ‘Cuse is poised for a deep run.  They have size, length, athleticism, and shooting touch, and forward Wesley Johnson will be a top pick in this year’s NBA Draft if he declares.  The only teams that give the Orange fits have versatile big men that can play out of the high post and beat Jim Boeheim’s famous 2-3 zone from the inside out.  Only Vanderbilt seems to fit that mold, and the Commodores might not even make it to that would-be Sweet Sixteen match-up.

Kansas State – Arguably the toughest team in the West, Wildcat players have to develop thick skin with Frank Martin shooting murderous glares and shouting obscenities in their direction for 40 minutes.  Much has been made of the backcourt duo of Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente, who are both tough as nails – neither shies away from the bright lights.  But the frontcourt is deep and efficient; forwards Jamar Samuels and Curtis Kelly both average at least 11 points and 5.2 rebounds per game and shoot over 56% from the floor.  The ‘Cats’ weakness is outside shooting (combined, Pullen and Clemente shoot an unimpressive 36% from deep), and they are susceptible to teams that shoot the three-ball well (see losses to Ole Miss, Missouri, and Oklahoma State).  Syracuse is a nightmare match-up for this team.

“Oh-ver-ra-ted”

The popular four-syllable chant describes almost the entire region.  Don’t be surprised if many of the top seeds take an early stumble.

Pitt – How many times to we have to watch this movie?  A scrappy, physical, overachieving Pitt team outworks opponents on a nightly basis during the regular season on its way to a 24-win season, only to fall to a team with superior talent in the Big Dance.  Since 2002, when the Panthers began to make the NCAA Tournament on a regular basis under Ben Howland, they have not once beaten a team with a better seed.  With no discernable next-level talent on this roster, it’s nearly impossible to foresee the Panthers putting together an extended run.

Vanderbilt – The Commodores are worthy of a four seed – little argument there.  But their sub-regional consists of three feisty mid-majors: Butler, Texas El-Paso, and their first-round opponent Murray State.  Vandy posted some terrific wins this season, including sweeps of Tennessee and Florida, and came close to knocking off Kentucky (then again, doesn’t everyone?).  However, VU is also prone to some lapses in focus, as demonstrated by losses against Western Kentucky, at Georgia, and on their home court against South Carolina and Mississippi State late in the season.  It’s hard to envision the ‘Dores playing in the Elite Eight, especially considering the extent to which they rely on free throws.

Gonzaga – Since shedding their Cinderella label in 2002, the Zags have made the Sweet Sixteen only twice: as a four seed last year and a three seed in 2006.  In that same span, they have lost their first tournament game three times: as a seven in 2008, as a 10 in 2007, and in 2002, as a six seed.  Since 2002, they are only 6-4 against teams with a worse seed, and are 7-8 overall.  If you were thinking about picking them to beat Syracuse in the second round, think again.

Dark Horses

Xavier – X went 14-2 in a surprisingly brutal A-10 this year and have played two teams in this region in ’09-’10: Florida (a 12-point win on the road) and Kansas State (a 15-point loss, also on the road).  But the Musketeers lack their signature depth and oftentimes rely too much on sophomore forward Jordan Crawford, a.k.a. the kid who dunked on LeBron.  The Musketeers are only 2-7 against teams that made the tournament this year, but they might be more talented than the first three teams they face (unless of course they run into KSU in the third round).  Major-conference teams never like seeing “Xavier” across from them in the bracket, and X has a winning pedigree, having won five tournament games the past two seasons.

Brigham Young – The Cougars are experienced and shoot the ball incredibly well: their triple-slash line (for those unfamiliar, FG%/FT%/3FG%) as a team is a ridiculous 49/79/42.  BYU will put pressure on every team they play with the nation’s 12^th-most efficient offensive unit, according to Ken Pomeroy, and they have the ability to ice close games at the line.  Future pro Jimmer Fredette has torched opponents to the tune of 21.7 points, 4.7 assists, and 3.1 rebounds per game this season and is a sleeper candidate for regional Most Outstanding Player.  The worry here is eight consecutive losses in the NCAA Tournament for this program, including ousters the last three seasons as an eight seed.

Players to Watch

It’s virtually impossible to pick an all-region team before the tournament even begins, but hey, it won’t stop me from trying.

Andy Rautins, G, Syracuse – The son of one of Syracuse’s all-time greats, Leo Rautins, Andy has more than defended his father’s legacy.  The senior has become an excellent college point guard, averaging 5.0 assists per game on the year and shooting almost 40% from deep.  While he has a sweet stroke, Rautins can affect the game even if he’s not scoring.

Wesley Johnson, F, Syracuse – An out-of-nowhere transfer from Iowa State, Johnson is a defensive force, averaging 1.7 steals and 1.9 blocks for the season.  At 16.0 points and 8.4 rebounds per game, and putting up a triple-slash of 49/78/39, he’s not slouch on the other end, either.

Jimmer Fredette, G, BYU – Not just a shooter, Fredette has a sweet crossover and excellent passing skills to complete a very polished offensive repertoire.  He is explosive, having scored 25 points or more in 11 different games this year, and his 45% three-point clip at five attempts per game is a nightmare for opposing coaches.

A.J. Ogilvy, C, Vanderbilt – Arguably the best big man in the region, Ogilvy’s best asset is his ability to get to the foul line – and make his shots once he does; he owns a 73% FT clip in over six trips to the charity stripe per game.  He handles the ball less than he did his first two seasons at VU, but that’s due to the other weapons surrounding him.  At 6’11″, he will be a tough match-up for the other teams in this region.

Jacob Pullen, G, Kansas State – While he and Clemente are almost always spoken of in tandem, Pullen is the key to the Wildcats’ success (32% from the floor in his team’s seven losses).  He isn’t a great shooter, but at 42/81/38 is the best on KSU.  The Wildcats will need to rely on his strength and ability to finish at the rim for long stretches in this tournament, and he’s certainly up to the task.

Honorable Mention: Marqus Blakely, F, Vermont; Matt Bouldin, G, Gonzaga; Denis Clemente, G, Kansas State; Jordan Crawford, F, Xavier; Randy Culpepper, G, Texas-El Paso; Elias Harris, F, Gonzaga; Gordon Hayward, F, Butler; Chris Singleton, F, Florida State

Now, what you’ve all been waiting for.  For me, this is a shot at redemption, or, the more likely scenario, one more example why I should be the last person telling you which teams to pick.

Round 1

1 Syracuse over 16 Vermont

I love that kid Blakely, but this is no repeat of 2005.  Where’s Taylor Coppenwrath when you need him (again)?  Syracuse, 88-66

8 Gonzaga over 9 Florida State

The Seminoles have an excellent defensive team, especially on the interior; Singleton will be able to lock down on Harris and Solomon Alabi will defend the rim with his life.  One problem: Bouldin, shooting over everybody, with range.  OK, a second problem: Leonard Hamilton.  Gonzaga, 60-55

12 Texas-El Paso over 5 Butler

UTEP’s ironically-named Derrick Caracter, once the biggest head case in college basketball, has the physical tools to manhandle Butler’s scrawny front line.  UTEP, 75-69

4 Vanderbilt over 13 Murray State

The last time Vandy ran into a balanced, up-tempo team in the tournament, it was embarrassed by Siena.  It won’t happen again; freshman John Jenkins is the best shooter in this bracket, and that’s saying something.  Vanderbilt, 80-69

3 Pittsburgh over 14 Oakland

The Panthers play in Pittsburgh’s Oakland neighborhood, while the opposing Golden Grizzlies are actually from Michigan.  That’s not a bad thing, though; the less there is of Al Davis, the better.  Pitt, 68-59

6 Xavier over 11 Minnesota

This has always been a cardinal rule of mine for selecting tournament games: never pick a team that played its way into the Big Dance with its conference tournament performance.  Xavier, 70-62

7 Brigham Young over 10 Florida

Will Billy Donovan’s club be satisfied that they simply made the tournament, or will they show up to defend Fredette?  This will be the best game of round one.  BYU, 73-71

2 Kansas State over 15 North Texas

UNT is the Mean Green, but they’ve never seen anyone as freakishly intense as Martin.  Just watching him prowl the sidelines makes me feel afraid for myself and everyone in the room.  KSU, 75-51

Round 2

1 Syracuse over 8 Gonzaga

If Gonzaga’s threes fall, the game will be relatively close.  But who guards Rick Jackson for the Bulldogs?  Who guards Wesley Johnson?  Mark it down: this will wind up the most lopsided 1/8 or 1/9 match-up of the tournament.  Syracuse, 73-53

12 UTEP over 4 Vanderbilt

The Miners lost Saturday’s C-USA championship against Houston, their first L in their last 17 contests.  UTEP isn’t the strongest team defensively – they have problems handling explosive scorers – but if Caracter plays big and keeps Ogilvy off the foul line, it could be a very frustrating day for Kevin Stallings and company.  UTEP, 71-67

6 Xavier over 3 Pittsburgh

Probably the least exciting second-round game of the region, these teams are dead last in the West in terms of visual appeal.  I’ll stick with my theory that Pitt is always tough enough to handle the rigors of the day-in, day-out regular season, but never talented enough to beat a tournament team with above-average athleticism.  Xavier, 64-60

7 Brigham Young over 2 Kansas State

Kansas State has had an unusually high number of losses this year to teams that simply caught fire from three, and no team is better equipped to repeat that result than BYU.  Imagine this scenario: down by three with a minute left, BYU takes advantage of a defensive breakdown and guard Jackson Emery drains an open three.  Martin stares daggers through his star guards as his face turns Ohio State scarlet, and in the ensuing timeout huddle he screams a stream of profanities that would make Bob Saget blush.  Feel confident picking KSU?  Me neither.  BYU, 77-74

Sweet Sixteen

1 Syracuse over 12 Texas-El Paso

It would be a great story if UTEP, one of the last at-large teams in the field, put up a fight against mighty Syracuse.  But ‘Cuse has all the tools to defend UTEP which, between Culpepper and Caracter, is essentially a two-man team.  Syracuse, 84-67

7 Brigham Young over 6 Xavier

As I mentioned earlier, Xavier doesn’t seem to have that “X” factor it normally carries into March.  The Musketeers are manageable for BYU from an athleticism standpoint, and Fredette could legitimately carry his team through three games a la Steph Curry.  BYU, 68-63

Elite Eight

1 Syracuse over 7 Brigham Young

Although BYU has the players that could theoretically shoot ‘Cuse out of its zone, that approach failed for Cal, Cornell, and all the other three-heavy teams the Orange pounded in 2009-2010.  The way to attack SU is to relentlessly pound them inside, a capability the Cougars sorely lack.  The Orange are, pure and simple, the best of the West, and it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which they fail to reach Indianapolis.  Syracuse, 81-70

]]> http://www.wahoowire.com/2010/03/17/the-2010-bracket-bible-west-region/feed/ 3 http://www.wahoowire.com/2010/03/11/march-11-bracket-update/ http://www.wahoowire.com/2010/03/11/march-11-bracket-update/#comments Thu, 11 Mar 2010 06:31:44 +0000 Michael Garcia http://www.wahoowire.com/?p=1964 In case you haven’t noticed, less than four days remain until Selection Sunday, and the pressure is on for teams to secure their tickets to the Big Dance.  Luckily for the major conference teams on the bubble, the mid- and low-major conference tournaments have proceeded as expected, meaning the number of available at-large bids has yet to shrink appreciably.  Butler and Old Dominion did teams like Notre Dame and Georgia Tech a favor by winning their conference tournaments and not allowing the runners-up, Wright State and William & Mary, to steal bids.  Now, it’s up to the big boys to prove they deserve sports in the field of 65.

First, the 14 teams who have already clinched berths:

East Tennessee State – Atlantic Sun

Montana – Big Sky

Winthrop – Big South

Old Dominion – Colonial

Butler – Horizon

Cornell – Ivy

Siena – Metro Atlantic

Northern Iowa – Missouri Valley

Robert Morris – Northeastern

Murray State – Ohio Valley

Wofford – Southern

Oakland – Summit

North Texas – Sun Belt

St. Mary’s – Western Athletic

Now, the 34 teams that will earn a berth regardless of whether or not they win their conference tournament championships – the so-called “locks.”

Atlantic Coast

Duke

Maryland

Clemson

Wake Forest

Florida State

Virginia Tech

Atlantic 10

Temple

Xavier

Richmond

Big East

Syracuse

West Virginia

Villanova

Pittsburgh

Georgetown

Louisville

Marquette

Big Ten

Purdue

Wisconsin

Michigan State

Ohio State

Big XII

Kansas

Kansas State

Baylor

Texas A&M

Texas

Oklahoma State

Missouri

Conference USA

UTEP

Mountain West

New Mexico

Brigham Young

Southeastern

Kentucky

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

West Coast

Gonzaga

Six conferences have yet to declare a representative to the NCAA Tournament.  They will all determine champions in the next few days, but none of their members are threats to earn an at-large bid.

America East (favorite: Vermont)

Big West (California-Santa Barbara)

Mid-Eastern (Morgan State)

Patriot (Lehigh)

Southland (Sam Houston State)

Southwestern (Jackson State)

Now, here’s where it gets interesting.  The above teams and conferences leave 11 bids available to the rest of the bubble.  Here’s a rundown of the teams still realistically vying for a spot, and their relative odds of making it.  The numbers in parentheses are a team’s Ratings Per Index, according to www.realtimerpi.com and accurate as of Tuesday.

California (20) – The Golden Bears, with their Pac-10 regular season title and pretty RPI, are pretty much assured of an at-large berth.  But they are only 1-5 against RPI top 50 opponents, and they only get that mark because Washington has recently crept up to 50 in those rankings.  Cal is a much better 5-6 against the top 100, but they should not be counted on to win a game in the NCAA Tournament – or really even the Pac-10 tournament.  Chances: Good

Utah State (31) – USU has ripped off 15 straight wins, including 12 by double digits, to really enhance its at-large profile.  The Aggies are 9-4 against the RPI top 100 and 2-1 against the top 50, including a huge win over BYU.  While there’s not a ton to love about this profile, there’s almost nothing to hate about it, either.  Chances: Good

San Diego State (36) – Although SDSU has two unsightly losses – at Pacific and at Wyoming – the Aztecs have a strong RPI and are in relatively good shape.  Home wins over Arizona, New Mexico, and UNLV are their only wins against the RPI top 100, and they are 3-6 vs. such foes.  But a third-place tie in the MWC, with a first-round conference tournament match-up against Colorado State, shape up favorably for San Diego State – though I have them rated much lower than does Joe Lunardi.  Chances: Average

Alabama-Birmingham (40) – This marks quite a slip for the Blazers, who at one time looked like a safe bet to go dancing.  However, UAB was swept by UTEP and Memphis, and now stands third in the conference.  A C-USA semifinal match-up with Memphis could serve as a virtual elimination game, so we won’t know more about the Blazers’ status until Friday.  Chances: Average

Rhode Island (42) – The Rams have absolutely collapsed, falling from near-lock status to the fringe of the bubble conversation: twice in the season’s final week did they fall to a sub-100 RPI team.  URI owns a 9-6 record at road and neutral sites and a 6-6 mark against the top 100, but finished fifth in the uber-competitive A-10.  A lack of marquee wins seriously hurts Rhode Island, who will have to lean on a neutral-court win over Oklahoma State unless they beat both St. Louis and Temple in the Atlantic-10 tournament.  Chances: Not great

Kent State (43) – This is probably a reach, but the Golden Flashes have come on strong to force the selection committee to view them as an at-large contender.  KSU has won 13 of 14 to move to 22-8 (13-3), and has a non-league win over UAB to its credit.  However, Kent State’s second-best win in terms of RPI came against (69) Wofford, and the MAC has not been a multi-bid league for several years.  It would be a shock to see the Flashes make the tournament without sweeping its first post-season.  Chances: Poor

Georgia Tech (44) – The Yellow Jackets have the talent of many “lock” teams, but are on the bubble because, frankly, they’re not that good.  GT is 5-9 at road/neutral sites, and has lost its last six away from Atlanta.  A 7-9 finish in the ACC is unimpressive, but wins against Duke and Clemson continue to look good.  Wins in the ACC tournament against UNC and Maryland (if they beat UNC) would likely seal the deal, but who would bet on Paul Hewitt’s club right now?  Chances: Good

Memphis (46) – Josh Pastner’s squad has made a late charge into the thick of the bubble conversation, thanks to a 7-5 record against the RPI top 100 and a 13-3 conference mark.  The Tigers have three sub-100 RPI losses and only two top 50 wins, both against UAB.  If the committee weights late-season performance more than the mythical “body of work,” Memphis’ chances increase.  Chances: Average

Nevada-Las Vegas (48) – Despite a poor RPI, the Rebels are a likely contender to go dancing.  Records of 7-4 against the RPI top 100, 11-5 in the MWC, and 10-4 in road/neutral games are sure to catch the committee’s eye.  Though UNLV can ill afford a third loss to Utah in the conference tournament, it still looks good compared to other bubble teams.  Chances: Good

Dayton (49) – As the seventh-place team in a conference that will get, at most, four bids, the Flyers’ at-large hopes are in serious peril.  The Flyers are 3-7 against the RPI top 50 and 5-9 against the top 100, but finished .500 in the A-10.  UD needs to beat Xavier in the quarterfinals, then Richmond in the semis, to earn two more high-end victories and have a shot at an at-large bid.  Chances: Poor

Washington (50) – The Huskies are in better position than fellow at-large pretender Arizona State, contrary to Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology update.  Washington is 6-5 against the RPI top 100 and 2-2 against the top 50, with the most impressive win at home against Texas A&M.  With a season split against ASU, the teams’ potential Pac-10 semis match-up will be a virtual elimination game.  Chances: Average

Florida (53) – Sitting pretty two weeks ago, the Gators have lost their past three games to finish 9-7 in the SEC.  Of the Gators’ 11 losses, eight have come against RPI top 25 competition.  UF has proved it’s not elite, but a 7-10 record against the top 100 (5-2 against 26 through 100) may be enough for an at-large spot.  Conference tournament games against Auburn and Mississippi State are vital if Florida is to avoid a third straight season without appearing in the NCAA Tournament.  Chances: Average

Arizona State (54) – The Sun Devils have won six of seven to force their way back into the at-large picture and finish second in the Pac-10.  But ASU is a mere 3-7 against the RPI top 100, and 2-6 against the top 50.  Even if Herb Sendek’s squad makes the conference tournament finals, beating Washington in the process, an at-large bid is no sure thing.  Chances: Not great

Mississippi (56) – Ole Miss has to hope its December win over Kansas State carries a lot of weight with the selection committee, because 9-7 in the SEC West and an RPI of 56 aren’t too impressive.  The Rebs will likely have to beat Tennessee and Kentucky – making the SEC finals in the process – to win back the favor of the committee.  Chances: Poor

Notre Dame (57) – Notre Dame was rightfully left for dead a month ago, when it sat at 6-8 in the Big East and lost all-everything forward Luke Harangody to injury.  But the Fighting Irish have reeled off four great wins in a row and are in solid position for a bid.  Depending on how much the bubble shrinks in the coming days, Notre Dame will have to sweat out its at-large spot to varying degrees, thanks to its poor non-conference performance.  But consider Mike Brey’s team all but in.  Chances: Good

Mississippi State (68) – The Bulldogs have the odds stacked against them for an NCAA Tournament berth.  MSU swept Mississippi and won the SEC West, but only owns one victory over an RPI top 50 team.  With four sub-100 RPI losses, Jarvis Varnado & crew have some serious work cut out for them in the conference tournament.  Chances: Poor

Illinois (75) – After a late season collapse, it’s hard to determine where Illinois stands in the bubble conversation.  The Illini stood at 9-4 in the Big Ten just four weeks ago, yet have lost five of six to imperil their at-large chances.  Illinois has four RPI top 30 victories and is 10-8 in the conference, but has three sub-100 RPI losses and a meek 5-11 record against the top 100.  Its match-up Friday against Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament is an absolute must-win.  Chances: Average

Minnesota (77) - The Golden Gophers are only in this conversation because Illinois is.  Minnesota has a comparable RPI, a comparable conference record (9-9 for Tubby Smith’s squad), and won at Illinois a few weeks ago.  They own high-end victories over Butler, Wisconsin, and Ohio State, and are 4-7 against the RPI top 100.  Minnesota might have to make the finals of the Big Ten tourney – which would involve beating Michigan State and probably Purdue – to earn an at-large spot.  Chances: Not great

Projected last 11 bids, in order of likelihood:

Notre Dame

UNLV

California

Georgia Tech

Florida

Utah State

Washington

Illinois

Memphis

San Diego State

Alabama-Birmingham

Projected last four out:

Rhode Island

Arizona State

Minnesota

Mississippi State

On the outside looking in:

Mississippi

Kent State

Dayton

Seton Hall (season over)

Atlantic 10

Temple (13) – At 23-5, one of the better teams no one is talking about – probably because they’ve had a bid wrapped up since beating Villanova in December.  Chances: In

Xavier (14) – Unlike most Xavier teams, this one failed to post eye-catching wins in the non-conference schedule.  X is still a lock, though.  Chances: In

Richmond (25) – On an eight-game winning streak, the Spiders could really burst some brackets next month.  Chances: In

Rhode Island (27) – URI is one of the more interesting at-large cases.  The Rams’ non-conference resume is average – the best win being a neutral-court victory over Oklahoma State – and their computer profile is strong.  But at 8-5 in conference play (even in a better-than-average A-10), the Rams are not done proving themselves to the selection committee.  If they win out in the regular season – and they should – they will probably go dancing.  Chances: Good

Dayton (43) – Despite two good non-conference wins (Georgia Tech and Old Dominion), Dayton is squarely on the bubble thanks to a 9-7 A-10 record, including a 2-5 mark in league road games.  The Flyers will have to win at Richmond on March 4 to put themselves back in the at-large picture.  Chances: Not great

Charlotte (56) – A December win at Louisville looks better than ever, and Charlotte gets a chance to finish a season sweep of Richmond in the season finale.  But the 49ers have lost three of four – two of those losses at home – to all but seal their NIT fate.  They need to win out until the A-10 Tournament finals to get back in the at-large discussion.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 4

Atlantic Coast

Duke (2) – The Blue Devils are 9-3 against the RPI top 50, and 16-3 against the top 100.  Chances: In

Wake Forest (21) – Despite oodles of talent and a strong RPI, this Wake team has yet to play up to its potential.  This is a make-or-break team in March.  Chances: In

Maryland (28) – The Terps have won six of seven to really pad their computer numbers and help their at-large odds.  That buzzer-beater over Georgia Tech may have turned the season around for this squad.  Chances: Good

Florida State (32) – Because its best non-league win came against Marquette, FSU needs to keep winning ACC games to make the NCAA Tournament.  They stand at 8-5, with three winnable games left; a 9-7 finish would really jeopardize its at-large status.  Chances: Good

Georgia Tech (34) – At 6-7 in conference play, the Yellow Jackets could really use an 8-8 ACC record to boost their at-large hopes.  With BC and VT still to head down to Atlanta, GT should get the necessary wins to achieve .500.  Without that win over Duke, they would almost be a non-factor.  Chances: Average

Clemson (37) – The Tigers missed out on a chance to sweep the Terrapins, and now have to gear up to play at Florida State, Georgia Tech, and at Wake to close the season.  One win out of those three should work for Clemson, which has largely avoided its typical late-season swoon in 2009-2010.  Chances: Good

Virginia Tech (47) – Leaving its game in Blacksburg burnt Virginia Tech as it lost by 20 at Boston College on Wednesday.  Now, the Hokies – despite a 21-6 (8-5) record – have some serious image rehab to do.  They close with a reasonable schedule (Maryland, NC State, at Georgia Tech), and winning their two remaining home games should cinch a bid.  Chances: Average

Expected Bids: 7

Big East

Syracuse (4) – ‘Cuse is 11-0 in road/neutral sites, with seven of those wins coming against RPI top 100 teams.  Chances: In

West Virginia (5) – WVU has quietly lost three out of five, and still has to play Georgetown and at Villanova.  Chances: In

Villanova (8) – The Wildcats beat USF to snap a two-game skid, and while they probably fell out of contention for a one seed, they are still a Final Four-caliber squad.  Chances: In

Georgetown (9) – Austin Freeman’s ability to score in key moments will be crucial for Georgetown, which is 4-4 against RPI top 25 opponents (all are currently in the top 16).  Chances: In

Pittsburgh (10) – Jamie Dixon should be a National Coach of the Year candidate, considering his team is 10-5 in a murderous Big East without any discernable NBA talent on the roster.  Chances: In

Connecticut (40) – It will be interesting to see if the selection committee weights the loss of Coach Jim Calhoun (whom the Huskies were 3-4 without) like the loss of a player.  If it does, that’s great news for UConn, which still needs to win two of its last three (Louisville, at Notre Dame, at South Florida) to finish .500 in the Big East.  This team is playing at its peak, and will be dangerous if it makes the Dance.  Chances: Average

Louisville (41) – The most unpredictable team out there, Louisville has won at Syracuse and has also lost at home to Charlotte by 22.  The Cardinals own a 6-9 record against the RPI top 100, a number distorted by a 1-5 mark against elite (top 10) foes.  One or two Big East Tournament wins gets this team in.  Chances: Good

Seton Hall (52) – The Hall might be the worst good team (or is that the best bad team?) around.  The Pirates have a 3-9 record against RPI top 50 competition, a record good enough to prove that they just aren’t good enough.  Chances: Poor

Marquette (55) – Two overtime wins at Cincinnati and at Saint John’s pushed Marquette’s conference record to 9-6.  The Golden Eagles’ last three games are at Seton Hall, Louisville, and Notre Dame – two victories in that bunch would seal the deal.  Chances: Average

Cincinnati (59) – Despite non-league wins over Vanderbilt and Maryland, the Bearcats are in a tough spot: they stand at 7-8 in conference, with “at West Virginia,” “Villanova,” and “at Georgetown” the last three games on the schedule.  One win there still probably wouldn’t cut it, unless Cincy went on a run in the conference tournament.  Chances: Not great

South Florida (66) – A good team in an impossibly deep league, South Florida needs a run to the Big East finals to have hope for an at-large bid.  Chances: Poor

Notre Dame (72) – See Florida, South.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 8

Big Ten

Purdue (7) – The loss of Robbie Hummel for the season severely damages Purdue’s Final Four hopes.  Chances: In

Wisconsin (17) – The Badgers have stumbled a bit lately, losing to Illinois and at Minnesota, but they are still a team with a Final Four ceiling (as evidenced by their December win over Duke).  Chances: In

Michigan State (26) – Sparty has lost four of six, including two at home, but is still in the running for the Big Ten regular season title.  Chances: In

Ohio State (31) – How many shooting guards do you know average nine rebounds and six assists per game?  Oh, right, just Evan Turner.  Chances: In

Illinois (63) – The Illini still have to host Minnesota and Wisconsin and play at Ohio State.  Two wins in that stretch may not be good enough.  Weirdly, Illinois is 6-3 on the road but 0-5 at neutral sites.  Chances: Good

Minnesota (80) – Technically still on the bubble thanks to home wins against Wisconsin and Butler, The Golden Gophers will have to overcome a 3-8 road/neutral record to earn an at-large bid.  Tubby Smith shouldn’t hold his breath.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 5

Big XII

Kansas (1) – Kansas started the year as #1 and will enter the NCAA Tournament the odds-on favorite to win it all.  Chances: In

Kansas State (6) – K-State remains a long shot for a one seed, but has surprised some (including yours truly) with their consistent play this year.  Chances: In

Baylor (12) – The RPI is inflated given only four wins against RPI top 50 competition, but there’s no doubting Baylor’s quality as a team.  Chances: In

Texas A&M (18) – The Aggies have quietly won seven of 10, having played five road games and seven games against the RPI top 100 in that stretch.  Chances: In

Texas (22) – The Longhorns righted the ship with a win over Oklahoma State, but injuries and their reliance on freshman might doom them in March.  Chances: In

Oklahoma State (33) – Unremarkable records in conference play (7-6) and against the RPI top 50 (3-6) keep the Pokes on the bubble, but if they reach .500 in the Big XII, they should go dancing.  Chances: Good

Missouri (39) – The Tigers still get two more chances for quality wins, at Kansas State and against Kansas.  It’s really only a matter of seeding for Mizzou.  Chances: Good

Texas Tech (51) – The Red Raiders have to win out and make the Big XII finals for a shot at an at-large berth.  In the words of Lloyd Christmas, “So, you’re saying there’s a chance?”  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 7

Colonial Athletic

Old Dominion (42) – ODU’s stock is dropping after its Bracket Buster loss at Northern Iowa, but the Monarchs still have the quality wins (6-7 against the RPI top 100) to earn an at-large bid.  Chances: Good

William & Mary (57) – The Good: non-league wins against Richmond, at Wake Forest, at Maryland.  The Bad: six conference wins by three points or less, not all of them against good teams.  The Ugly: three sub-200 RPI losses.  The committee will pass.  Chances: Not great

Virginia Commonwealth (62) – The Rams haven’t received much at-large love despite non-league wins against Nevada, Richmond, and Rhode Island.  The middling RPI, coupled with four sub-100 RPI losses, probably has something to do with that.  Chances: Poor

Northeastern (76) – Despite a 13-4 conference record, the Huskies have little chance at an at-large berth thanks to a bad RPI and six sub-100 RPI losses.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 2

Conference USA

UTEP (46) – Despite an 11-game winning streak and a clear domination of C-USA, the Miners’ non-existent non-conference profile (best part of the resume: a split with New Mexico State) cripples their at-large chances.  They need to make the C-USA finals for an at-large bid.  Chances: Poor

UAB (30) – The Blazers have a good RPI, a 22-5 record, and a 5-4 record against the RPI top 100.  It surprises me that Joe Lunardi consistently has them on his Last Four In list.  Chances: Good

Memphis (69) – A loss at Houston really hurts Memphis’ chances for a bid.  The Tigers might return to the elite next year, but will have to settle for the NIT this season.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 2

Horizon League

Butler (16) – The only at-large contender in this league, Butler is a lock for the Dance.  The question is whether or not the Bulldogs will falter in the Horizon Tournament, allowing the HL to steal a bid from a major-conference team.  Chances: In

Expected Bids: 1

Ivy League

Cornell (49) – A 21-4 record means next to nothing if the best victory on your resume is at Saint John’s, currently 75 in the RPI.  The Big Red have a shot at a first-round upset, but not at an at-large bid.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 1

Metro Atlantic Athletic

Siena (36) – Another interesting case, Siena is 22-6 but 0-4 against the RPI top 50.  The body of work leaves a lot to be desired, but thankfully for the Saints, they will probably roll through the MAAC Tournament.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 1

Missouri Valley

Northern Iowa (23) – Unlike other mid-majors, UNI’s 24-4 mark includes nine wins over the RPI top 100.  Unless they go down in the MVC Tournament (likely given the conference’s history of parity), the Panthers have a true shot at a top-half NCAA Tournament seed.  Chances: Good

Wichita State (53) – Wichita State is on this list more for what they might do in the postseason – beat UNI in the conference tournament and steal a bid.  Their at-large chances, though, are minimal.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 2

Mountain West

New Mexico (11) – Saturday’s showdown at BYU will be a great game, and could provide a three seed for the winner.  Chances: In

Brigham Young (19) – The Cougars are 8-3 against the RPI top 100, and their worst loss (in terms of RPI) was at UNLV.  Chances: In

San Diego State (38) – San Diego State is another team whose status is virtually unknown.  The Aztecs have a big disadvantage in that they lost to another bubble team, Saint Mary’s, by 22.  Ultimately, a 2-4 record against RPI top 50 teams does little to demonstrate the ability to compete at a high level, and this lack of a significant track record against elite competition will probably doom SDSU.  Chances: Average

Nevada-Las Vegas (44) – Though they sit in a tie with SDSU for third in the conference, UNLV has a significant leg up because of four non-conference RPI top 100 wins, compared to two for the Aztecs (and those two were against 96 and 99).  The Runnin’ Rebels also split against UNM and BYU, and as a result appear poised for a middling seed in the NCAA Tournament.  Chances: Good

Expected Bids: 3

Pac 10

California (24) – Cal’s RPI is aided tremendously by their non-conference schedule, which including losses to Syracuse, New Mexico, and Kansas.  Cal is 0-4 against the RPI top 50, but 6-7 against the top 100.  If the committee is serious about considering a school’s “entire body of work,” they will deny the Bears an at-large bid; however, if their RPI continues to hover in the mid-20s, they will be hard to ignore come Selection Sunday.  Chances: Average

Arizona State (54) – A late charger on the at-large scene, ASU has a huge game coming up tomorrow at Cal.  If the Sun Devils can pull it out, they would push their record against the RPI top 100 to 5-7 and their road/neutral mark to 7-5.  But because ASU’s two best wins are home victories over San Diego State and Washington, it needs a serious end-of-the-year rally to earn a more serious look from the selection committee.  Chances: Not great

Washington (64) – Washington is not a realistic at-large contender.  If the Huskies advance to the Pac-10 Tournament finals, the selection committee will have to look at them a bit longer than usual, though they still would probably pass.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 1

Southeastern

Kentucky (3) – What more needs to be said?  The sensational freshmen at Kentucky continue to take every team’s best shot and move forward with a victory.  Chances: In

Vanderbilt (15) – Vandy missed out on a chance to possibly sew up a top-four seed in their loss to Kentucky a week ago, but still looks like a Sweet 16 team.  Chances: In

Tennessee (20) – The Volunteers have had an up-and-down year, but are still a lock for the NCAA Tournament.  They can compete with anyone (one-point loss to Purdue, beat Kansas) and falter against anyone (22-point loss at Southern Cal).  Chances: In

Florida (45) – With the home win over Tennessee, Florida moves to a terrific 9-4 in a loaded SEC East, though the Gators still must host Vanderbilt and travel to Kentucky.  Still, 10 wins in this division should be enough for UF, which is looking to end a two-year absence from the Big Dance.  Chances: Good

Mississippi State (58) – After coming up just short against Kentucky, only a run to the SEC finals will earn MSU an at-large bid.  The Bulldogs have four sub-100 RPI losses to counteract only five RPI top 100 wins, and the 8-5 record in the SEC looks worse considering it’s the SEC West.  Chances: Not great

Mississippi (61) – The Rebels hope that their December win over Kansas State will propel them toward an at-large bid, but a 6-7 record in a below-average division says otherwise.  They are 0-5 in their last five games against RPI top 50 teams.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 4

West Coast

Gonzaga (29) – The Bulldogs have stumbled on the road at times, losing against San Francisco and Loyola Marymount.  But this team still has enough juice to make the Sweet 16.  Chances: In

Saint Mary’s (50) – With a 5-5 record against the RPI top 100 and a 10-3 road/neutral record, Saint Mary’s seems to be in good position to earn an at-large berth.  But the fact that they lost twice to Gonzaga by a combined 26 points complicates matters.  They have wins over San Diego State and at Utah State, but also lost to USC and Portland.  If the Gaels make it to the WCC finals and stay close with the Zags, the selection committee should let them in.  As of this moment, though, their status is still up in the air.  Chances: Average

Expected Bids: 1

Western Athletic

Utah State (35) – With a 13-game winning streak and a win over BYU as the feather in its cap, USU’s at-large bids look better by the day.  The Aggies are the only at-large contender in the conference.  Chances: Good

Expected Bids: 1

So how does the NCAA Tournament field project at this time?

Below are the bids I expect each conference to receive, with the leagues listed in alphabetical order.  “Lock” signifies a team that would definitely earn an at-large bid if the season ended today.  The designation of “On the Bubble” represents teams with questionable tournament statuses, but whose tickets the selection committee would likely punch.  “Off the Bubble” teams are equally iffy, but in slightly worse positions to make the Big Dance.  A conference’s number of bids is the total of the one automatic bid, locks, and on the bubble teams.  Lastly, numbers in parentheses denote team Ratings Per Index, as per www.realtimerpi.com (and accurate as of last Tuesday).

Atlantic 10 (5)

Auto: Richmond (29)

Locks: Temple (12), Xavier (25)

On the Bubble: Rhode Island (26), Dayton (34)

Off the Bubble: Charlotte (51)

Despite a now glowing 22-point win at Louisville on its resume, Charlotte has found itself on the outside looking in after blowing a home game against a mediocre Duquesne team.  Blowout losses to Duke (by 42), Old Dominion (33), Tennessee (17), and Dayton (28), undercut the win at Louisville and conference victories at Richmond and against Temple.  Rhode Island is headed down the Charlotte path after a loss at Saint Louis, and four losses by five points or fewer damage URI’s cause.   So why pick the Rams over the 49ers?  Better computer numbers, fewer losses, and more consistency.  The March 3^rd meeting between the teams could serve as a virtual elimination game.

As for the rest of the conference, Richmond, Temple, and Xavier are securely in, while Dayton maintains a better-than-good shot at dancing in March.  A very attainable 4-2 stretch for the Flyers will probably secure for them a double-digit tournament seed.  Along with the Colonial, this remains one of the more intriguing conference races, as the number of at-large bids available to major-conference teams will fluctuate greatly base on how A-10 contenders perform over the season’s final month.

America East (1)

Auto: Stony Brook (146)

Atlantic Coast (7)

Auto: Duke (2)

Lock: Wake Forest (14)

On the Bubble: Georgia Tech (28), Clemson (35), Maryland (37), Florida State (40), Virginia Tech (47)

The ACC at-large picture is obviously the most clear-cut of any major conference.  The bottom line: these seven teams are easily in, and everyone else is easily out.  Because of poor non-conference performances, Virginia Tech and Maryland probably need to win 10 or 11 ACC games to sew up at-large berths.  The other five “in” teams can afford to finish at 8-8 and still feel relatively assured of tickets to the Big Dance.  Yes, it’s that simple.

Atlantic Sun (1)

Auto: Campbell (192)

Big East (7)

Auto: Syracuse (4)

Locks: Villanova (5), West Virginia (6), Georgetown (8), Pittsburgh (13)

On the Bubble: Louisville (30), Marquette (62)

Off the Bubble: Connecticut (48), Cincinnati (50), Seton Hall (54), South Florida (56)

Will the madness in the Big East ever stop?  After counting out Louisville (blowout loss at Saint John’s) and UConn (similar result at Cincinnati), those teams rebounded for road wins at Syracuse and Villanova, respectively.  Right now, the difference between “On the Bubble” Louisville and Marquette and the other five at-large hopefuls is simple: an above-.500 conference record.  All seven bubble teams have their flaws, so conference record is perhaps the best basis of comparison between them.  The stretch run will certainly continue get interesting in the Big East, with the seven bubble teams almost playing a round-robin over the season’s final month.  As they say, there are no nights off in this league.

Big Sky (1)

Auto: Weber State (72)

Big South (1)

Auto: Coastal Carolina (134)

Big Ten (5)

Auto: Michigan State (24)

Locks: Purdue (9), Wisconsin (15),

On the Bubble: Ohio State (42), Illinois (71)

Though this league has a clear top four teams, Illinois receives the Big Ten’s fifth at-large bid for a few reasons.  A 9-4 conference mark, including wins against Michigan State and at Wisconsin, is the biggest one.  The Illini have a few other good wins, including at Clemson and against Vanderbilt.  The pock mark keeping them around the bubble is that unsightly RPI.  Yet neutral-site losses to Utah and Bradley back in November artificially inflated that number; with wins there, I suspect Illinois is around 50 in the RPI.  The committee should be able to look past those flukes, after which all of Illinois’ good wins came.  Losses by Minnesota (at Northwestern) and Northwestern (against Penn State) effectively end those teams’ at-large hopes.

Big West (1)

Auto: Pacific (117)

Big XII (7)

Auto: Kansas (1)

Locks: Kansas State (7), Baylor (11), Texas A&M (17), Texas (27)

On the Bubble: Oklahoma State (32), Missouri (38)

Off the Bubble: Texas Tech (43)

The Big XII, for my money the most exciting league in college basketball, will produce five to seven NCAA Tournament berths this year.  Some changes this week: Baylor takes a huge step up to lock status thanks to wins against Mizzou and Texas Tech; Oklahoma State moves closer to lock status; and Texas, while not in contention to lose its lock status, has officially announced its intention to not compete for a Final  Four spot as many in the preseason thought it would.  Texas Tech would seem to be in better position considering its solid RPI, but the Red Raiders are 4-7 in conference play and have shown an inability to beat quality competition on the road.

Colonial Athletic (3)

Auto: Northeastern (59)

On the Bubble: Old Dominion (41), William & Mary (46)

Off the Bubble: Virginia Commonwealth (65)

Admittedly, I have probably been overvaluing the CAA on a consistent basis.  This is probably a one-bid league if ODU wins the conference tournament; the Monarchs are the only team with secure at-large standing.  A sweep of Old Dominion (the teams play again on 2/27) would help VCU improve its RPI and add a quality road win, but with consecutive losses at the Founding Fathers – George Mason and James Madison – the Rams are off the bubble for now.  Despite a gaudy 13-3 conference mark, Northeastern – which lost twice to, of all teams, Drexel – needs to win the CAA Tournament for a Dance ticket.  W&M certainly has the non-conference resume to make a legitimate claim for an at-large berth (wins against  Richmond, at Wake Forest, and at Maryland), but has only revived its chances thanks to a recent four-game win streak.  The Tribe will probably finish 13-5 in the conference, which right now is enough for a bid and last four in status.

Conference USA (2)

Auto: UTEP (58)

On the Bubble: Alabama Birmingham (31)

Off the Bubble: Memphis (61), Marshall (63), Tulsa (70)

While UTEP remains in position to win the regular season C-USA crown, the Miners lack the overall profile of an at-large contender.  And although Memphis is making a charge at an at-large bid, Josh Pastner’s team is a year away from getting back to the Big Dance.  Marshall and Tulsa are non-factors, though their RPIs are good enough to give them a quick shout-out here.  Even the league’s only serious at-large contender, UAB, has yet to firmly stake its claim to an extra bid.  The C-USA would be lucky to receive two berths this year.

Horizon League (1)

Auto: Butler (22)

Ivy League (1)

Auto: Cornell (55)

Metro Atlantic Athletic (1)

Auto: Siena (33)

Mid American (1)

Auto: Kent State (58)

Mid-Eastern Athletic (1)

Auto: Morgan State (121)

Missouri Valley (1)

Auto: Northern Iowa (23)

Off the Bubble: Wichita State (53)

Though the Shockers have a nice 6-6 road/neutral mark, an average RPI, and a split with Northern Iowa, they are not a serious threat to earn an at-large berth.  Meanwhile, the Panthers’ gaudy 11-3 road/neutral mark enhances their overall record, and they probably will not need to beat Old Dominion in Friday’s Bracket Buster match-up to earn an at-large bid.

Mountain West (3)

Auto: New Mexico (10)

Locks: Brigham Young (19), Nevada-Las Vegas (44)

Off the Bubble: San Diego State (39)

With back-to-back road losses to San Diego State and Utah, UNLV moves perilously close to the bubble with a 7-5 MWC mark.  That makes three losses in a row for the Runnin’ Rebels, who should win their final four conference games.  If they make it to 11-5 and the MWC Finals, they probably have enough juice for an at-large bid; if not, the selection committee may look upon this recent stretch and say, “No, thanks.”  San Diego State, meanwhile, has the computer profile to make it to the Dance, but lacks quality wins both out of conference and away from home.  The Aztecs will have to make at least the finals of the MWC Tournament to earn a look from the selection committee.  UNM and BYU are both three-loss teams that will destroy the brackets of those who undervalue mid-major teams in March.

Northeast (1)

Auto: Robert Morris (159)

Ohio Valley (1)

Auto: Murray State (79)

Pac 10 (1)

Auto: California (21)

Off the Bubble: Washington (52), Arizona State (67), Southern Cal (82)

Treat this league like the WAC or Horizon: if the team currently in first loses in the conference tournament, it’s a two-bid league.  If not, it’s a one-berth situation.  Washington declared its contention for an at-large bid by finally winning on the road, but “at Stanford” won’t count for anything in the committee’s eyes.  The Huskies could have really strengthened their resume by winning in Berkeley, but they will have to settle for an NIT bid unless they win the Pac-10 Tournament.  Speaking of Cal, the Bears have shown through fairly one-sided losses against Syracuse, at Kansas, and at Washington that they will not be a factor in the NCAA Tournament, but hey, at least they’ll make it one way or another.  Arizona State has a good record (18-8) and a manageable RPI, and USC has quality wins in abundance, but both are non-factors for a tournament berth.

Patriot League (1)

Auto: Lehigh (170)

Southeastern (3)

Auto: Kentucky (3)

Locks: Vanderbilt (16), Tennessee (20)

Off the Bubble: Mississippi (49), Florida (60), Mississippi State (64), South Carolina (76)

Nothing need be said about Vandy, UT, and UK – those three are primed to do damage in the Big Dance.  The rest of the SEC is a bit of a mess, however.  With games remaining against each of the top four SEC teams in terms of RPI, Florida has the best shot of playing its way onto the right side of the bubble; however, considering how the Gators have fared in big games this year, there’s hardly a good chance of that circumstance coming to fruition.  Mississippi is next in the pecking order, but its only in-conference win against a fellow bubble team (and that’s even a stretch) is against South Carolina.  Mississippi State swept Ole Miss and could have made a huge statement by beating Kentucky at home, but poor defense down the stretch and dubious officiating negated that opportunity.  South Carolina isn’t really an at-large team, but it remains the only school to beat Kentucky, and that’s got to count for something, right?

Southern (1)

Auto: Charleston (106)

Southland (1)

Auto: Sam Houston State (69)

Southwestern Athletic (1)

Auto: Jackson State (218)

Summit League (1)

Auto: Oakland (66)

Sun Belt (1)

Auto: North Texas (138)

West Coast (2)

Auto: Gonzaga (24)

On the Bubble: Saint Mary’s (45)

Saint Mary’s has not exactly earned an at-large bid to this point, with a 2-3 record against the RPI top 50 that includes an 0-2 mark against WCC heavyweight Gonzaga.  But the Gaels are 20-5, own an impressive 9-3 road/neutral record, and stand a good chance of an at-large berth despite losing at Portland last week.  If they make it back to the finals of the conference tournament, their overall record, RPI, and decent wins (a 5-5 mark against the RPI top 100) will make it hard for the selection committee to ignore SMC, especially if the bubble continues to contract.

Western Athletic (1)

Auto: Utah State (36)

Off the Bubble: Nevada (68), Louisiana Tech (73), New Mexico State (74)

Winner of 11 consecutive games, Utah State has a chance to enter a March 6^th battle for the WAC regular season title with New Mexico State on a 13-game winning streak.  The Aggies, who have a marquee win (against BYU) on their resume, are probably an at-large team if they lose in the WAC Finals.  None of these other teams are in at-large contention, but one of them will usurp the conference’s at-large bid if USU stumbles in the conference tournament.  Keep an eye on this league: it could become a “stolen bid” situation on Selection Sunday.

Last Four In

Marquette

UNLV

William & Mary

Saint Mary’s

First Four Out

San Diego State

UConn

Florida

Cincinnati

Next Four Out

South Florida

Mississippi

Charlotte

VCU

So how does the NCAA Tournament field project at this time?

Below are the bids I expect each conference to receive, with the leagues listed in alphabetical order.  “Lock” signifies a team that would definitely earn an at-large bid if the season ended today.  The designation of “On the Bubble” represents teams with questionable tournament statuses, but whose tickets the selection committee would likely punch.  “Off the Bubble” teams are equally iffy, but in slightly worse positions to make the Big Dance.  A conference’s number of bids is the total of the one automatic bid, locks, and on the bubble teams.  Lastly, numbers in parentheses denote team Ratings Per Index, as per www.realtimerpi.com (and accurate as of last Tuesday).

America East (1)

Auto: Stony Brook (156)

Atlantic 10 (6)

Auto: Charlotte (46)

Locks: Rhode Island (13), Temple (17)

On the Bubble: Xavier (27), Richmond (30), Dayton (34)

Yes, you read that correctly.  The A-10 is possibly as strong as it’s ever been this season, with an unprecedented six teams in good positions for at-large candidacy.  Besides Dayton, each of these teams still has a realistic chance at the regular season conference title.  The only team even close to “Last Four In” status is Charlotte, whose non-conference profile (which includes a 42-point loss at Duke and a 33-point loss at Old Dominion) is questionable.  However, an 18-5 (8-1) mark that leads the conference, plus a respectable RPI, keep the 49ers in the hunt.  Convincing home wins by Dayton and Richmond over Xavier and Temple, respectively, even out the top of the league and muddle the A-10 picture to the point where five of these teams (not including Charlotte) stand on almost identical at-large footing.

Atlantic Coast (6)

Auto: Duke (4)

Lock: Wake Forest (13)

On the Bubble: Georgia Tech (23), Florida State (37), Clemson (41), Maryland (42)

Off the Bubble: Virginia Tech (63)

Georgia Tech and Florida State are essentially locks, but their non-league profiles are poor enough where a serious dip in conference play could jeopardize their chances of an at-large berth.  Speaking of collapses, Clemson has lost four of five and is teetering on “Last Four In” status, but did enough outside the ACC (wins vs. Butler and at home against South Carolina) to justify its inclusion.  The Terps have come on strong to position themselves near the top of the league, and the only thing keeping them away from lock status is average computer numbers.  Virginia Tech has played its way onto the bubble, but remains far from an at-large berth thanks to a weak 1-2 record against the RPI Top 50 and a cupcake schedule (ranked 189 in the country).

Atlantic Sun (1)

Auto: Lipscomb (199)

Big East (5)

Auto: Syracuse (2)

Locks: Villanova (3), West Virginia (6), Georgetown (7), Pittsburgh (18)

Off the Bubble: Louisville (43), South Florida (50), Cincinnati (55), Connecticut (57), Notre Dame (59), Marquette (60), Seton Hall (64)

Not one, not two, but seven Big East teams sit right at the bubble, and the margin for error is essentially zero.  Call it a hunch, but I see Marquette (which struggled winning road games a tight contests earlier this year but is currently on a four-game win streak) putting it together and sewing up an at-large bid later this month; however, their computer numbers cannot justify inclusion into the tournament at this point despite a four-game win streak.  The rest of the bubble foes have their own flaws: Louisville, Notre Dame, and South Florida have pathetic non-conference resumes; UConn has entered free-fall mode, losing six of its past nine; Cincinnati has struggled to win on the road (its only true road victory came at #127 Rutgers); and Seton Hall is 3-7 in conference play.  This may not be the deepest league in the country anymore, considering the absurd amount of mediocrity from spots 6-12.

Big Sky (1)

Auto: Weber State (80)

Big South (1)

Auto: Coastal Carolina (141)

Big Ten (5)

Auto: Illinois (65)

Locks: Purdue (9), Wisconsin (16), Michigan State (21)

On the Bubble: Ohio State (40)

Off the Bubble: Minnesota (62), Northwestern (67)

When did winning Big Ten games on the road get easy?  Victories by Illinois (at Wisconsin) and Purdue (at Michigan State) in the past week, the top of the conference has suddenly become very murky.  The Illini have now knocked off MSU and Wisconsin in their past two games, adding marquee wins to a resume that already includes gems like “at Clemson” and “Vanderbilt.”  Now that the computer numbers are starting to improve, Illinois looks like an increasingly good bet to earn an at-large bid.  Ohio State will be an interesting case for the selection committee, as the Buckeyes are a red-hot 15-3 with Evan Turner in the lineup but stand fourth in the league standings.  Minnesota has failed to impress, winning on the road only against the two worst league teams, and Northwestern (while overachieving) lacks the computer numbers and major victories to claim an at-large bid.

Big West (1)

Auto: Pacific (112)

Big XII (7)

Auto: Kansas (1)

Locks: Kansas State (8), Texas A&M (19), Texas (27)

On the Bubble: Baylor (28), Texas Tech (29), Oklahoma State (36)

Texas did plenty over its non-conference slate, and thank goodness for Longhorns fans, because Bevo & Co. are in a free-fall after receiving a home-court beat down from true conference top dog Kansas.  The Horns are still a lock, but they’ve jeopardized their seeding after losing for the fifth time in seven games.  Texas A&M, on the other hand, made a huge push, rallying to win at Missouri and then again at home against Baylor.  Missouri and Baylor both fared relatively well outside the league, and simply need to maintain a .500 league record to receive a seed in the 5-8 range.  Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are almost on the exact same footing; the teams have similar computer profiles and both stand at 4-5 in the conference.  Because of the conference’s strength and help from the computers, both teams earn a spot for now – but need to hover at .500 in Big XII play to feel confident about their long-term chances.

Colonial Athletic (3)

Auto: Northeastern (54)

On the Bubble: Old Dominion (35), Virginia Commonwealth (56)

Off the Bubble: William & Mary (52)

With its 11-2 league mark and tie-breakers over ODU and VCU, the Colonial regular season crown is Northeastern’s to lose.  The Huskies aren’t in great position for an at-large bid, but it remains to be seen how much value the selection committee will place on its strong league wins.  Old Dominion, on the other hand, has a very well-rounded profile, and remains only about 10 RPI points from lock status.  The decision to add Virginia Commonwealth to the bubble is a difficult one; the Rams’ recent loss at George Mason muddles their at-large chances.  Still, VCU has a 6-4 record against the RPI Top 100 (4-0 out of conference) and is 3-0 against the Top 50.  A relatively easy finish to the season should see the Rams end at 12-6 in the league, just enough to squeak by with an at-large bid.  W&M has lost four of six to fade from the at-large picture.  This is probably not a three-bid league at the end of the season, but as of this moment, there are few more enticing options.

Conference USA (2)

Auto: UTEP (58)

On the Bubble: Alabama Birmingham (30)

Off the Bubble: Tulsa (61), Memphis (75)

With only one conference loss and wins at Memphis, at UAB, and over Tulsa, UTEP is in the best shape to claim the C-USA regular season crown.  Where that leads them, though, is unknown; the Miners have to win the league’s postseason tournament to go Dancing.  UAB has two good non-league wins (over Cincinnati and Butler) and a strong enough computer profile to feel good about its at-large chances.  The other schools simply lack most elements of a strong at-large resume, and appear here only because their chances of winning the C-USA Tournament are fairly strong.

Horizon League (1)

Auto: Butler (12)

Ivy League (1)

Auto: Cornell (48)

Metro Atlantic Athletic (1)

Auto: Siena (33)

Mid American (1)

Auto: Kent State (66)

Mid-Eastern Athletic (1)

Auto: Morgan State (117)

Missouri Valley (1)

Auto: Northern Iowa (15)

Off the Bubble: Wichita State (51)

A loss at Evansville seriously dampens WSU’s bid for an at-large berth, although Gregg Marshall has his squad about a year or so from competing with big-time programs.  Northern Iowa has won a remarkable five road games in a league where winning away from home is a chore, to put it kindly.  This conference gets two bids only if the Panthers falter in the MVC Tournament.

Mountain West (3)

Auto: Nevada-Las Vegas (32)

Locks: New Mexico (10), Brigham Young (20)

Off the Bubble: San Diego State (38)

An oh-so-close, crushing double-overtime loss in New Mexico effectively ends San Diego State’s at-large chances, barring a miraculous run over the next month.  Instead, the power trio atop the MWC continues to beat up on each other and only each other (see: UNLV’s home dismantling of BYU).  Those three teams have a combined record of 60-10, and make no mistake about it: all of those teams are legit.

Northeast (1)

Auto: Robert Morris (158)

Ohio Valley (1)

Auto: Murray State (89)

Pac 10 (1)

Auto: California (25)

Off the Bubble: Washington (53), Arizona (70), Arizona State (74), Southern Cal (78)

If Cal falters in the Pac-10 Tournament, they might actually not receive an at-large bid (these things happen when your best non-league win is over Murray State).  The Bears have an 0-4 mark against the RPI Top 50 and a 3-7 record against the Top 100.  Washington looks fine aside from two facts: the Huskies are 6-5 in a bad conference, and they still have not won a game away from Seattle (0-6).  Those other “Off the Bubble” teams are just there as a courtesy to the memory of Pac-10 ball.  To wit: Arizona (4-8 neutral/road record, including a loss in Corvallis), Arizona State (nine of 16 wins against teams ranked 175 or worse in the RPI), and USC (home loss to #211 Loyola Marymount) don’t really belong on this list.

Patriot League (1)

Auto: Lehigh (163)

Southeastern (5)

Auto: Kentucky (5)

Locks: Vanderbilt (11), Tennessee (22)

On the Bubble: Mississippi (39), Florida (48)

Off the Bubble: South Carolina (71), Mississippi State (72)

It would be nice to give the “other” USC a little more credit after handing Kentucky its first loss, but the Gamecocks simply don’t have the profile or the standing (fifth in the SEC East) to justify a bid.  Mississippi State has fast fallen out of the picture, having lost four of five.  The rest of the SEC looks fine, though; Mississippi’s neutral-site win over Kansas State carries a lot of weight, as do Florida’s wins over Florida State and Michigan State (neutral).  This looks like a pretty solid five-bid conference.

Southern (1)

Auto: Charleston (107)

Southland (1)

Auto: Sam Houston State (77)

Southwestern Athletic (1)

Auto: Jackson State (250)

Summit League (1)

Auto: Oakland (69)

Sun Belt (1)

Auto: Arkansas State (160)

West Coast (2)

Auto: Gonzaga (24)

On the Bubble: Saint Mary’s (44)

For St. Mary’s, non-conference wins over New Mexico State, San Diego State, at Utah State, and vs. Northeastern didn’t impress at the time, but look increasingly good as those teams continue to climb the ladders of their respective conferences.  The big showdown – SMC @ Gonzaga – looms on Thursday, but that contest will likely determine only how much the Gaels have to sweat out their at-large bid on Selection Sunday.

Western Athletic (1)

Auto: New Mexico State (68)

Off the Bubble: Utah State (49)

The (NMSU) Aggies hold the tie-breakers over Utah State and former conference leader Louisiana Tech, but have no chance for an at-large bid.  The (USU) Aggies have a win over BYU and a pretty 17-6 record after its eighth straight win on Saturday, but lack the overall profile of an at-large dancer.  This is a three-horse race in a one-bid league.

Below are the bids I expect each conference to receive, with the leagues listed in alphabetical order.  “Lock” signifies a team that would definitely earn an at-large bid if the season ended today.  The designation of “On the Bubble” represents teams with questionable tournament statuses, but whose tickets the selection committee would likely punch.  “Off the Bubble” teams are equally iffy, but in slightly worse positions to make the Big Dance.  A conference’s number of bids is the total of the one automatic bid, locks, and on the bubble teams.  Lastly, numbers in parentheses denote team Ratings Per Index, as per Ken Pomeroy (refer to http://kenpom.com/rate.php for details).

America East – 1

Auto Bid: Vermont (129)

Atlantic 10 – 2

Auto Bid: Temple (27)

On the Bubble: Xavier (34)

Off the Bubble: Dayton (57), Rhode Island (63), Richmond (71)

The Rundown: With Temple a lock for the Dance with or without the automatic bid, the A-10 appears to be a multiple-bid league.  But the four contenders for the extra spot(s) – Xavier, Dayton, Rhode Island, and Richmond – are all flawed and squarely on the bubble.  Xavier distinguishes itself with conference record (4-0) and computer numbers.  Dayton (Georgia Tech, Old Dominion) and Richmond (Mississippi State, Missouri, ODU, Florida) have solid wins but no numbers to back them up.  URI has a pristine 14-2 record, but the Rams have built it against 10 teams worse than 100 in the RPI.  Expect this mess to sort itself out as the elite teams begin to play each other.

Atlantic Coast – 8

Auto Bid: Virginia (56)

Locks: Duke (1), Clemson (16), Georgia Tech (24), Florida State (25)

On the Bubble: Maryland (18), Wake Forest (38), North Carolina (46)

Off the Bubble: Virginia Tech (31), Boston College (77), North Carolina State (79)

The Rundown: Every team – literally every team – still has a shot at making the Tournament (even Miami, which fails to appear on this list only because it currently occupies last place).  Virginia’s presence atop the league has altered the ACC pecking order, probably usurping an at-large bid from this or another power conference.  UNC still makes this list because of strong early victories (Ohio State, Michigan State), but must reverse its losing streak to stay on the right side of the bubble.  Maryland, Virginia Tech, Boston College, and NC State had unimpressive non-conference seasons and need to stay afloat in conference play to catch the committee’s eye.  Maryland makes it because the computers favor Gary Williams’ squad.

Atlantic Sun – 1

Auto Bid: Campbell (142)

Big East – 8

Auto Bid: Villanova (20)

Locks: Syracuse (4), West Virginia (7), Georgetown (19), Pittsburgh (26)

On the Bubble: Marquette (17), Louisville (30), Cincinnati (55)

Off the Bubble: Connecticut (42), Seton Hall (59), Notre Dame (76)

The Rundown: Likely the best conference in the land, the Big East sports incredible parity from spots four to 12.  The three squads off the bubble are there because they generally lack impressive wins, which is where Cincinnati (Vanderbilt, Maryland, Connecticut) has a significant advantage.  Marquette, Louisville, and Cincinnati all need to finish 9-9 or so in conference play in order to solidify their resumes.  In a typically deep Big East, that’s an accomplishment more easily said than done.

Big Sky – 1

Auto Bid: Weber State (96)

Big South – 1

Auto Bid: Coastal Carolina (153)

Big Ten – 6

Auto Bid: Michigan State (12)

Locks: Wisconsin (6), Purdue (9), Ohio State (11)

On the Bubble: Minnesota (21), Illinois (48)

Off the Bubble: Michigan (64), Northwestern (73)

The Rundown: Michigan has wilted under preseason expectations and is fast fading from the NCAA picture.  Minnesota and Illinois are two of the more precariously placed bubble teams around, but both played solid non-league slates and would probably make the Dance if it began today.  The top four teams are absolutely bubble-proof – even Ohio State, which survived a freak Evan Turner injury and appears poised to make a run with its best player back in the lineup.

Big West – 1

Auto Bid: Pacific (106)

Big XII – 5

Auto Bid: Kansas (2)

Locks: Texas (5), Kansas State (8), Missouri (13), Baylor (29)

Off the Bubble: Texas A&M (43)

The Rundown: Unlike other multi-bid leagues, the Big XII’s Big Dance portrait is very clear.  Baylor did enough outside the conference (wins over Xavier and at Arizona State) to solidify its position even if the Bears dip in league play.  Texas A&M is probably the odd team out, but with a relatively light schedule the next few weeks, could make a run and find itself on the right side of the bubble as early as next week.  The Aggies have a good non-conference profile but are currently 0-3 in Big XII play.

Colonial Athletic – 1

Auto Bid: George Mason (126)

Off the Bubble: Old Dominion (28), William & Mary (84)

The Rundown: Somehow, the computers are lukewarm on W&M despite road wins at two ACC at-large contenders (Maryland and Wake Forest) and in-state victories against Richmond and VCU.  If the Tribe’s RPI dips into the low 60s, at 14-3, the committee will be hard-pressed to ignore them.  Old Dominion has the opposite problem: one great win (at Georgetown) and a strangely strong computer profile, but no real substance beyond what seems to be a fluky victory over the Hoyas.  Still, at 6-1 in league play, both those squads are in a decent position to gain the committee’s favor down the stretch, especially if George Mason (currently 7-1 in the CAA) falters.

Conference USA – 2

Auto Bid: Memphis (37)

On the Bubble: UAB (51)
Off the Bubble: Tulsa (44), Marshall (85)

The Rundown: UAB has just enough juice at 15-2 to find itself on the inside this week, and with wins against Butler and Cincinnati, only shaky computer numbers weaken its profile.  Tulsa’s best non-league win was against Oklahoma State, while Marshall, though 15-2, has played only two RPI Top 100 foes (losses at Old Dominion and North Carolina).  Expect Tulsa and Marshall to fade, as their records are the product of favorable scheduling; meanwhile, UAB might actually challenge Memphis and its stranglehold on the C-USA this year.

Horizon League – 1

Auto Bid: Butler (33)

Ivy League – 1

Auto Bid: Cornell (69)

Off the Bubble: Harvard (65)

The Rundown: Harvard makes a courtesy appearance on this list, as the Ivy League is a two-horse race this season.  At 12-3 (2-2 against the RPI Top 100) it’s a nice but unrealistic thought to have the Crimson on the bubble.  It will be interesting if Cornell and Harvard split their series this year – the Ivy, having no conference tournament, will have to employ some sort of (likely controversial) tiebreaker to determine the winner of its auto bid.

Metro Atlantic Athletic – 1

Auto Bid: Siena (60)

Mid American – 1

Auto Bid: Buffalo (105)

Mid-Eastern Athletic – 1

Auto Bid: Morgan State (128)

Missouri Valley – 1

Auto Bid: Northern Iowa (39)

Off the Bubble: Wichita State (53)

The Rundown: The Shockers’ convincing win over Northern Iowa this week earns it a spot close to the bubble, but no serious at-large consideration.  WSU’s best non-league win was a victory at home against (91) Texas Tech.  Still, at an impressive 17-3 (6-2 in the MVC), Gregg Marshall’s team has a chance to steal a bid if it can navigate a perennially prickly Missouri Valley.

Mountain West – 3

Auto Bid: Brigham Young (3)

On the Bubble: UNLV (47), New Mexico (50)

Off the Bubble: San Diego State (70)
The Rundown: This league looks as strong as ever in recent years.  BYU owns the nation’s second-best record at 18-1, while UNM and UNLV are positioned strongly despite underwhelming computer numbers.  BYU still has to play in Las Vegas and its two-game series with New Mexico, so the power struggle atop the MWC has yet to shake out completely.  When the dust settles, though, expect the three top teams to have secure positions in the Dance.

Northeast – 1

Auto Bid: Quinnipiac (158)

Ohio Valley – 1

Auto Bid: Murray State (54)

Pacific 10 – 3

Auto Bid: Arizona State (15)

On the Bubble: California (22), Southern California (45)

Off the Bubble: Washington (61)

The Rundown: Who knew a down year would get this ugly for the Pac-10?  Cal, expected to win the league before the season began, has looked non-competitive at times against top-flight competition, and earns a spot here only because of its good computer numbers.  USC has some important non-conference wins (Tennessee, Saint Mary’s, UNLV) and sits in a tie for second in the league at 3-2, which is probably good enough – for now.  As for Washington?  Get back to me once you win a road game.

Patriot League – 1

Auto Bid: Lafayette (216)

Southeastern – 5

Auto Bid: Kentucky (14)

Locks: Tennessee (10), Vanderbilt (23)

On the Bubble: Mississippi State (32), Mississippi (35)

Off the Bubble: Florida (49), Alabama (78)

The Rundown: After winning two straight national titles, Florida seems destined to end the year on the outside looking in for the third consecutive campaign.  Three straight home losses, including one to Southern Alabama (199), cripple its profile.  Alabama is a year or two away from seriously competing under Anthony Grant.  The two Mississippi schools own very secure positions on the bubble, but are a few key wins away from lock status.

Southern – 1

Auto Bid: College of Charleston (125)

Southland – 1

Auto Bid: Texas A&M Corpus Christi (156)

Southwestern Athletic – 1

Auto Bid: Prairie View A&M (295)

Summit League – 1

Auto Bid: Oakland (111)

Sun Belt – 1

Auto Bid: Arkansas State (205)

West Coast – 2

Auto Bid: Gonzaga (36)

On the Bubble: Saint Mary’s (41)

The Rundown: Saint Mary’s blew a big chance to solidify its resume on the 14^th when it lost at home to Gonzaga, but the Gaels’ emphasis on scheduling away and neutral-site games has helped its computer profile and credibility.  SMC will need to finish 12-2 in conference to maintain its chance at an at-large bid, and a February win in Spokane wouldn’t hurt, either.

Western Athletic – 1

Auto Bid: Louisiana Tech (68)

Off the Bubble: Utah State (40), Nevada (67)

The Rundown: Louisiana Tech has built a 17-2 (5-0 in the WAC, 4-2 against the RPI Top 100) record, though it still may not receive an at-large bid if it doesn’t clinch the conference title.  Utah State and Nevada scheduled bravely, although neither has much of a chance at an at-large berth (even though USU is the only team to have beaten BYU this year).

Fans could be forgiven for thinking his introductory press conference was a bad April Fool’s prank.  Former Coach Dave Leitao had proclaimed the same principles as Bennett did in his initial remarks.  The whole spiel about defense, hustle, and toughness was a tired refrain often preached but rarely practiced under the old regime.  The team seemed to chaff under the dictatorial style of Leitao, who yanked minutes around and frequently berated players on the sideline.  By the end of 2008-2009, the ‘Hoos were an easy win for many conference contenders; nine of their final 12 losses came by double digits.  Why should followers of the program believe that a new coach could turn his weary squad into competitors in a perennially vicious ACC?

And yet, 14 games into his tenure as Cavs Coach, Bennett has made believers out of the players and fans.  In Wednesday night’s 82-75 win over #20 Georgia Tech, it was obvious that the team has adopted the approach of its new boss.  Although the Yellow Jackets shot over 51% from the floor, the UVA defense stiffened in crunch time, yielding only six makes in 17 attempts over the final 9:30 of game time.  And despite inferior athletic ability, Virginia pulled out the win thanks to smart and sound play.  UVA committed only seven turnovers and excelled from the foul line, making 23 of 26 attempts (including last Saturday’s win at North Carolina State, the ‘Hoos have made 42 of their last 46 free throw attempts – that’s a 91.3% clip).  Bennett has said his goal is to make it hard for other teams to beat his, and recently, opponents have not been up to that challenge; Virginia’s current six-game win streak is its longest since a seven-game stretch in 2006-2007.

“We had some guys really battle,” Bennett said after the game.  “I thought our defense showed up in the second half.  In the first half, it wasn’t really solid.  Their effort was there, but the execution wasn’t.  They really made Georgia Tech earn; it was physical with the post players.  That’s a good team and we outlasted them.

“You have to win the hustle game.  Guys did that and we got a good look from our bench and took care of the ball and made our free throws.  Those are good things.”

Such praise was rare from the mouth of Dave Leitao over the past few seasons.  No performance ever seemed adequate for the hard-to-please ex-coach, whose habit of pulling guys after even trivial mistakes took an emotional toll on his young players.  Under Bennett, the players feel like they have a fresh start and the full confidence of a youthful, relatable coach.  This new mindset has translated into tangible results earlier than realistic observers could have expected.

Even though they are out-manned and undersized in the frontcourt, the Wahoos rebound well pound-for-pound and show exemplary poise on both ends of the floor.  Against Georgia Tech, a team with two projected lottery-pick forwards, the Cavs held their own in the rebounding margin, grabbing 36 boards to 33 for the Jackets.  While they were shaky at times against a desperate GT press in the closing minutes, every Cavalier who stepped to the foul line calmly sank his bonus shots.  The patience and discipline shown on the offensive end are marked improvements from the rushed shots and ill-advised fast breaks of a year ago.  The 2009-2010 ‘Hoos rank 36th nationally in Ken Pomeroy’s offensive efficiency ratings, a huge step up from the 2008-2009 incarnation’s ranking of 165 (for a description of this and other useful statistics, refer to http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/stats_explained/).

The results Bennett has delivered despite the thin (relative to other conference teams) amount of talent at his disposal are encouraging for the Cavalier faithful.  Any doubts that he is an effective coach, recruiter, and communicator have been erased with this year’s 10-4 start – a record that equals last season’s win total with an almost identical roster.  While the early returns from the Bennett era are cause for hope in Charlottesville, it is still important to remember that this roster is almost identical to last year’s.  With the meat of its conference schedule ahead, Virginia would be fortunate to finish around .500 in ACC play, even after its 2-0 league start.

Even so, after his team’s second win over a top-25 opponent in as many tries, it’s hard not to have faith in Bennett’s vision for the program.   More importantly, his players are buying into the philosophy; Wednesday’s win was a perfect example of the grit and discipline promised by the new coach less than 10 months ago.

“It just seems like to me this year everybody’s a lot more confident,” said Mustapha Farrakhan, who finished with 15 points against the Jackets, shooting 4-8 from the floor and 6-6 from the charity stripe.  “We’re going in there and playing with a lot of confidence out there, relying on one another.  It’s great.”

Trust me, Mustapha, the fans feel the same way.

Champ: Colt McCoy

The man with the best name in college football set the all-time NCAA wins mark for a quarterback, picking up his 43^rd career victory over Kansas last weekend.  With his stats coming on and his new record in hand, McCoy now appears to be the man to beat in the Heisman race.  And, all his Longhorns have to do to earn a BCS Title Game appearance is steamroll Texas A&M and Nebraska.  Everything is falling into place for McCoy, whose decision to return for his senior year has worked out just fine.

Courtesy nerve.com

Honorable Mention: Oregon Football, Williams, Stafford, Turner

Chump: Les Miles

Painted as a wild riverboat gambler by the media, Miles made some costly decisions in his Tigers’ 25-23 loss to Ole Miss last Saturday.  He decided to throw two fades – not exactly the lowest-risk pass pattern – when attempting the two-point conversion late in the contest (the refs bailed out his team on the first one, flagging the Rebels for pass interference; the second one is all on Miles).  After somehow recovering the onside kick, the Tigers ran out of time thanks to horrible clock management, spiking the ball with :01 left on the clock (the action of spiking consumed the last second) and Miles leaving a timeout in his pocket.  The coach admitted his mistakes after the game, but admission fails to excuse him from his disastrous game management and disappointing season.

Courtesy data.getafreelancer.com

Honorable Mention: SEC schedule makers, Nikola Dragovic, Mark Mangino, AFC North

Champ: Brandon Jennings

If Jenning’s season had a slogan, it would probably be, “I told you so.”  Jennings skipped college after thrice failing to post minimum SAT scores and played professionally in Italy last year.  However, he struggled to transition to the European lifestyle, and barely found court time.  He also controversially challenged the hype over ballyhooed guard Ricky Rubio, claiming he had matched up against the Spaniard and won convincingly.  Despite concerns over his skill and maturity, Milwaukee took him tenth in the 2009 NBA Draft – and now looks like a genius for it.  Jennings put up an astounding 55 points last Saturday, breaking the franchise record set by some guy named Alcindor.  Jennings has averaged 24.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 5.8 assists while shooting 56% from three-point range, and already seems a lock for Rookie of the Year.

Courtesy www.brandonjennings.net

Honorable Mention: the city of Cincinnati, TCU Football, Jim Harbaugh

Chump: Bill Belichick

While fellow supposed gridiron masters Rich Rodriguez and Pete Carroll have experienced tough seasons, culminating in embarrassing losses this past weekend (for Rich-Rod, at 21-point thrashing at the hands of Wisconsin; for Carroll, losing 55-21 to Stanford), no one has had a tougher week than Belichick.  Every sports pundit on the planet has second-, third-, and fourth-guessed his now-infamous decision to attempt a fourth and two conversion from his own 28 with just over 2:00 to go against the rival Colts.  While I personally approved the call – I think Peyton Manning scores from anywhere on the field with 2:00 and a timeout left, so you might as well try to win the game with your offense – the strategy obviously failed, and the media frenzy has descended on The Hoodie.  Even more egregious is that Belichick wasted two timeouts on the infamous drive, eliminating any chance his Pats had to rally after the Colts scored to take the lead.  Regardless of which particular pieces of evidence you hold against him, Belichick has effectively slipped from “genius” status, even if only by a tiny amount.

Courtesy awfulannouncing.blogspot.com

Honorable Mention: Rodriguez, Carroll

Courtesy of www.seattlepi.com

After an ugly 66-49 loss to South Florida in Tampa, the Cavalier fan base should have a firmer handle on the reality of its 2009-2010 team.  The warm and fuzzy feelings accompanying the first six months of the Tony Bennett era evaporated with the ‘Hoos’ early six-point advantage, as the Bulls used size and shooting touch to out-score the overmatched visitors 39-24 over the final 21 minutes of game time.  Virginia managed to shoot only 33% from the floor while allowing USF’s big bodies to control the paint and the glass.  Sure, the absences of Jamil Tucker and Assane Sene hurt the frontcourt depth, but the Wahoos failed to capitalize on their four-guard lineup, which for the second straight contest posted an assist-to-turnover ratio of under 1:1.

Bennett has been clear since accepting the head coaching position that this program is a work in progress.  After Friday’s season-opening win over Longwood, Bennett was careful to attach a caveat to the seemingly alphabetic victory: “It is no secret that we have a lot of work to do, and it is going to be a long journey.  [The players] know they have to improve.  We need tremendous focus, energy and toughness and that is what we are trying to build.”

The operative word in coach’s post-game statements, of course, is “build.”  This is a team that, while returning all five starters from a year ago, finished a meek 4-12 in the ACC last season.  The Cavaliers are still a fairly young squad, and although Bennett has won over the fan base with his easygoing personality and strong 2010 recruiting class, the expectations entering this year were dangerously high.  To wit: the Cavalier Daily projected UVA to finish eighth in the conference, ahead of 2008-2009 NCAA Tournament teams Florida State and Boston College.  The Cavaliers, as they demonstrated in Monday’s loss, are still a ways away from competing with upper echelon schools.

This is not to say the program will not soon vault into the first or second tiers of the ACC.  The optimism surrounding Bennett’s tenure is well justified – the man assembled a consistent winner in Pullman, Washington (motto: “And you thought Waynesboro was country!”), and he connects with players the way Dave Leitao never could.  The good vibrations are simply premature.  How long until he resurrects a program that fell as precipitously under his predecessor as the meteors visible from outer space?  Though the answer remains to be seen, I am one of the numerous Cavalier faithful who believe the time will be sooner rather than later.

But until skies are clear, consider this a warning: the losses this season should continue to fall from the heavens, one after the other.