Atlantic 10

Temple (13) - At 23-5, one of the better teams no one is talking about - probably because they’ve had a bid wrapped up since beating Villanova in December.  Chances: In

Xavier (14) - Unlike most Xavier teams, this one failed to post eye-catching wins in the non-conference schedule.  X is still a lock, though.  Chances: In

Richmond (25) - On an eight-game winning streak, the Spiders could really burst some brackets next month.  Chances: In

Rhode Island (27) - URI is one of the more interesting at-large cases.  The Rams’ non-conference resume is average - the best win being a neutral-court victory over Oklahoma State - and their computer profile is strong.  But at 8-5 in conference play (even in a better-than-average A-10), the Rams are not done proving themselves to the selection committee.  If they win out in the regular season - and they should - they will probably go dancing.  Chances: Good

Dayton (43) - Despite two good non-conference wins (Georgia Tech and Old Dominion), Dayton is squarely on the bubble thanks to a 9-7 A-10 record, including a 2-5 mark in league road games.  The Flyers will have to win at Richmond on March 4 to put themselves back in the at-large picture.  Chances: Not great

Charlotte (56) - A December win at Louisville looks better than ever, and Charlotte gets a chance to finish a season sweep of Richmond in the season finale.  But the 49ers have lost three of four - two of those losses at home - to all but seal their NIT fate.  They need to win out until the A-10 Tournament finals to get back in the at-large discussion.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 4

Atlantic Coast

Duke (2) - The Blue Devils are 9-3 against the RPI top 50, and 16-3 against the top 100.  Chances: In

Wake Forest (21) - Despite oodles of talent and a strong RPI, this Wake team has yet to play up to its potential.  This is a make-or-break team in March.  Chances: In

Maryland (28) - The Terps have won six of seven to really pad their computer numbers and help their at-large odds.  That buzzer-beater over Georgia Tech may have turned the season around for this squad.  Chances: Good

Florida State (32) - Because its best non-league win came against Marquette, FSU needs to keep winning ACC games to make the NCAA Tournament.  They stand at 8-5, with three winnable games left; a 9-7 finish would really jeopardize its at-large status.  Chances: Good

Georgia Tech (34) - At 6-7 in conference play, the Yellow Jackets could really use an 8-8 ACC record to boost their at-large hopes.  With BC and VT still to head down to Atlanta, GT should get the necessary wins to achieve .500.  Without that win over Duke, they would almost be a non-factor.  Chances: Average

Clemson (37) - The Tigers missed out on a chance to sweep the Terrapins, and now have to gear up to play at Florida State, Georgia Tech, and at Wake to close the season.  One win out of those three should work for Clemson, which has largely avoided its typical late-season swoon in 2009-2010.  Chances: Good

Virginia Tech (47) - Leaving its game in Blacksburg burnt Virginia Tech as it lost by 20 at Boston College on Wednesday.  Now, the Hokies - despite a 21-6 (8-5) record - have some serious image rehab to do.  They close with a reasonable schedule (Maryland, NC State, at Georgia Tech), and winning their two remaining home games should cinch a bid.  Chances: Average

Expected Bids: 7

Big East

Syracuse (4) - ‘Cuse is 11-0 in road/neutral sites, with seven of those wins coming against RPI top 100 teams.  Chances: In

West Virginia (5) - WVU has quietly lost three out of five, and still has to play Georgetown and at Villanova.  Chances: In

Villanova (8) - The Wildcats beat USF to snap a two-game skid, and while they probably fell out of contention for a one seed, they are still a Final Four-caliber squad.  Chances: In

Georgetown (9) - Austin Freeman’s ability to score in key moments will be crucial for Georgetown, which is 4-4 against RPI top 25 opponents (all are currently in the top 16).  Chances: In

Pittsburgh (10) - Jamie Dixon should be a National Coach of the Year candidate, considering his team is 10-5 in a murderous Big East without any discernable NBA talent on the roster.  Chances: In

Connecticut (40) - It will be interesting to see if the selection committee weights the loss of Coach Jim Calhoun (whom the Huskies were 3-4 without) like the loss of a player.  If it does, that’s great news for UConn, which still needs to win two of its last three (Louisville, at Notre Dame, at South Florida) to finish .500 in the Big East.  This team is playing at its peak, and will be dangerous if it makes the Dance.  Chances: Average

Louisville (41) - The most unpredictable team out there, Louisville has won at Syracuse and has also lost at home to Charlotte by 22.  The Cardinals own a 6-9 record against the RPI top 100, a number distorted by a 1-5 mark against elite (top 10) foes.  One or two Big East Tournament wins gets this team in.  Chances: Good

Seton Hall (52) - The Hall might be the worst good team (or is that the best bad team?) around.  The Pirates have a 3-9 record against RPI top 50 competition, a record good enough to prove that they just aren’t good enough.  Chances: Poor

Marquette (55) - Two overtime wins at Cincinnati and at Saint John’s pushed Marquette’s conference record to 9-6.  The Golden Eagles’ last three games are at Seton Hall, Louisville, and Notre Dame - two victories in that bunch would seal the deal.  Chances: Average

Cincinnati (59) - Despite non-league wins over Vanderbilt and Maryland, the Bearcats are in a tough spot: they stand at 7-8 in conference, with “at West Virginia,” “Villanova,” and “at Georgetown” the last three games on the schedule.  One win there still probably wouldn’t cut it, unless Cincy went on a run in the conference tournament.  Chances: Not great

South Florida (66) - A good team in an impossibly deep league, South Florida needs a run to the Big East finals to have hope for an at-large bid.  Chances: Poor

Notre Dame (72) - See Florida, South.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 8

Big Ten

Purdue (7) - The loss of Robbie Hummel for the season severely damages Purdue’s Final Four hopes.  Chances: In

Wisconsin (17) - The Badgers have stumbled a bit lately, losing to Illinois and at Minnesota, but they are still a team with a Final Four ceiling (as evidenced by their December win over Duke).  Chances: In

Michigan State (26) - Sparty has lost four of six, including two at home, but is still in the running for the Big Ten regular season title.  Chances: In

Ohio State (31) - How many shooting guards do you know average nine rebounds and six assists per game?  Oh, right, just Evan Turner.  Chances: In

Illinois (63) - The Illini still have to host Minnesota and Wisconsin and play at Ohio State.  Two wins in that stretch may not be good enough.  Weirdly, Illinois is 6-3 on the road but 0-5 at neutral sites.  Chances: Good

Minnesota (80) - Technically still on the bubble thanks to home wins against Wisconsin and Butler, The Golden Gophers will have to overcome a 3-8 road/neutral record to earn an at-large bid.  Tubby Smith shouldn’t hold his breath.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 5

Big XII

Kansas (1) - Kansas started the year as #1 and will enter the NCAA Tournament the odds-on favorite to win it all.  Chances: In

Kansas State (6) - K-State remains a long shot for a one seed, but has surprised some (including yours truly) with their consistent play this year.  Chances: In

Baylor (12) - The RPI is inflated given only four wins against RPI top 50 competition, but there’s no doubting Baylor’s quality as a team.  Chances: In

Texas A&M (18) - The Aggies have quietly won seven of 10, having played five road games and seven games against the RPI top 100 in that stretch.  Chances: In

Texas (22) - The Longhorns righted the ship with a win over Oklahoma State, but injuries and their reliance on freshman might doom them in March.  Chances: In

Oklahoma State (33) - Unremarkable records in conference play (7-6) and against the RPI top 50 (3-6) keep the Pokes on the bubble, but if they reach .500 in the Big XII, they should go dancing.  Chances: Good

Missouri (39) - The Tigers still get two more chances for quality wins, at Kansas State and against Kansas.  It’s really only a matter of seeding for Mizzou.  Chances: Good

Texas Tech (51) - The Red Raiders have to win out and make the Big XII finals for a shot at an at-large berth.  In the words of Lloyd Christmas, “So, you’re saying there’s a chance?”  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 7

Colonial Athletic

Old Dominion (42) - ODU’s stock is dropping after its Bracket Buster loss at Northern Iowa, but the Monarchs still have the quality wins (6-7 against the RPI top 100) to earn an at-large bid.  Chances: Good

William & Mary (57) - The Good: non-league wins against Richmond, at Wake Forest, at Maryland.  The Bad: six conference wins by three points or less, not all of them against good teams.  The Ugly: three sub-200 RPI losses.  The committee will pass.  Chances: Not great

Virginia Commonwealth (62) - The Rams haven’t received much at-large love despite non-league wins against Nevada, Richmond, and Rhode Island.  The middling RPI, coupled with four sub-100 RPI losses, probably has something to do with that.  Chances: Poor

Northeastern (76) - Despite a 13-4 conference record, the Huskies have little chance at an at-large berth thanks to a bad RPI and six sub-100 RPI losses.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 2

Conference USA

UTEP (46) - Despite an 11-game winning streak and a clear domination of C-USA, the Miners’ non-existent non-conference profile (best part of the resume: a split with New Mexico State) cripples their at-large chances.  They need to make the C-USA finals for an at-large bid.  Chances: Poor

UAB (30) - The Blazers have a good RPI, a 22-5 record, and a 5-4 record against the RPI top 100.  It surprises me that Joe Lunardi consistently has them on his Last Four In list.  Chances: Good

Memphis (69) - A loss at Houston really hurts Memphis’ chances for a bid.  The Tigers might return to the elite next year, but will have to settle for the NIT this season.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 2

Horizon League

Butler (16) - The only at-large contender in this league, Butler is a lock for the Dance.  The question is whether or not the Bulldogs will falter in the Horizon Tournament, allowing the HL to steal a bid from a major-conference team.  Chances: In

Expected Bids: 1

Ivy League

Cornell (49) - A 21-4 record means next to nothing if the best victory on your resume is at Saint John’s, currently 75 in the RPI.  The Big Red have a shot at a first-round upset, but not at an at-large bid.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 1

Metro Atlantic Athletic

Siena (36) - Another interesting case, Siena is 22-6 but 0-4 against the RPI top 50.  The body of work leaves a lot to be desired, but thankfully for the Saints, they will probably roll through the MAAC Tournament.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 1

Missouri Valley

Northern Iowa (23) - Unlike other mid-majors, UNI’s 24-4 mark includes nine wins over the RPI top 100.  Unless they go down in the MVC Tournament (likely given the conference’s history of parity), the Panthers have a true shot at a top-half NCAA Tournament seed.  Chances: Good

Wichita State (53) - Wichita State is on this list more for what they might do in the postseason - beat UNI in the conference tournament and steal a bid.  Their at-large chances, though, are minimal.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 2

Mountain West

New Mexico (11) - Saturday’s showdown at BYU will be a great game, and could provide a three seed for the winner.  Chances: In

Brigham Young (19) - The Cougars are 8-3 against the RPI top 100, and their worst loss (in terms of RPI) was at UNLV.  Chances: In

San Diego State (38) - San Diego State is another team whose status is virtually unknown.  The Aztecs have a big disadvantage in that they lost to another bubble team, Saint Mary’s, by 22.  Ultimately, a 2-4 record against RPI top 50 teams does little to demonstrate the ability to compete at a high level, and this lack of a significant track record against elite competition will probably doom SDSU.  Chances: Average

Nevada-Las Vegas (44) - Though they sit in a tie with SDSU for third in the conference, UNLV has a significant leg up because of four non-conference RPI top 100 wins, compared to two for the Aztecs (and those two were against 96 and 99).  The Runnin’ Rebels also split against UNM and BYU, and as a result appear poised for a middling seed in the NCAA Tournament.  Chances: Good

Expected Bids: 3

Pac 10

California (24) - Cal’s RPI is aided tremendously by their non-conference schedule, which including losses to Syracuse, New Mexico, and Kansas.  Cal is 0-4 against the RPI top 50, but 6-7 against the top 100.  If the committee is serious about considering a school’s “entire body of work,” they will deny the Bears an at-large bid; however, if their RPI continues to hover in the mid-20s, they will be hard to ignore come Selection Sunday.  Chances: Average

Arizona State (54) - A late charger on the at-large scene, ASU has a huge game coming up tomorrow at Cal.  If the Sun Devils can pull it out, they would push their record against the RPI top 100 to 5-7 and their road/neutral mark to 7-5.  But because ASU’s two best wins are home victories over San Diego State and Washington, it needs a serious end-of-the-year rally to earn a more serious look from the selection committee.  Chances: Not great

Washington (64) - Washington is not a realistic at-large contender.  If the Huskies advance to the Pac-10 Tournament finals, the selection committee will have to look at them a bit longer than usual, though they still would probably pass.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 1

Southeastern

Kentucky (3) - What more needs to be said?  The sensational freshmen at Kentucky continue to take every team’s best shot and move forward with a victory.  Chances: In

Vanderbilt (15) - Vandy missed out on a chance to possibly sew up a top-four seed in their loss to Kentucky a week ago, but still looks like a Sweet 16 team.  Chances: In

Tennessee (20) - The Volunteers have had an up-and-down year, but are still a lock for the NCAA Tournament.  They can compete with anyone (one-point loss to Purdue, beat Kansas) and falter against anyone (22-point loss at Southern Cal).  Chances: In

Florida (45) - With the home win over Tennessee, Florida moves to a terrific 9-4 in a loaded SEC East, though the Gators still must host Vanderbilt and travel to Kentucky.  Still, 10 wins in this division should be enough for UF, which is looking to end a two-year absence from the Big Dance.  Chances: Good

Mississippi State (58) - After coming up just short against Kentucky, only a run to the SEC finals will earn MSU an at-large bid.  The Bulldogs have four sub-100 RPI losses to counteract only five RPI top 100 wins, and the 8-5 record in the SEC looks worse considering it’s the SEC West.  Chances: Not great

Mississippi (61) - The Rebels hope that their December win over Kansas State will propel them toward an at-large bid, but a 6-7 record in a below-average division says otherwise.  They are 0-5 in their last five games against RPI top 50 teams.  Chances: Poor

Expected Bids: 4

West Coast

Gonzaga (29) - The Bulldogs have stumbled on the road at times, losing against San Francisco and Loyola Marymount.  But this team still has enough juice to make the Sweet 16.  Chances: In

Saint Mary’s (50) - With a 5-5 record against the RPI top 100 and a 10-3 road/neutral record, Saint Mary’s seems to be in good position to earn an at-large berth.  But the fact that they lost twice to Gonzaga by a combined 26 points complicates matters.  They have wins over San Diego State and at Utah State, but also lost to USC and Portland.  If the Gaels make it to the WCC finals and stay close with the Zags, the selection committee should let them in.  As of this moment, though, their status is still up in the air.  Chances: Average

Expected Bids: 1

Western Athletic

Utah State (35) - With a 13-game winning streak and a win over BYU as the feather in its cap, USU’s at-large bids look better by the day.  The Aggies are the only at-large contender in the conference.  Chances: Good

Expected Bids: 1

Photo: Politico.com

About a month ago, Indiana State wore throwbacks to the Larry Bird era. I’m pretty sure I had seen those jerseys prior to last January, but at the time I must not have thought much of the most obvious aspect of the jersey - the use of the Indiana state outline as the letter “I” in the wordmark. That’s amazing in retrospect since it’s such a unique design element that really jumps out at you (and ripe for a JOTW column topic). While the sheer number of sports, leagues, and teams - past and present - make it difficult to say anything definitive about sports uniform absolutes, this very well may be the only instance of a state outline as a letter. I’ve never seen it anywhere else and certainly not in the most popular and well-covered sports in this country.

Whenever a new uniform design is unveiled, I’m always interested to see if it has some element I’ve never seen before. But when you really think about it, a truly unique new uniform element is incredibly rare. To see a real sports uniform first, it’s a lot easier to go back in time rather than forward. Going back to Terry Haute, IN circa 1979 yields the incredibly rare case of using the shape of a state as a letter on a jersey. Granted, Indiana State was no stranger to bizarre uniform decisions, such as pairing plain jerseys with pinstriped shorts. But as I said, I can’t think of any other example of the state-outline-as-letter style, which was even immortalized on a Bird starting lineup figure (how sweet is that?!). Indiana State still uses the state outline as part of its logo, though sadly it no longer forms the letter “I” on their jerseys.

While the use of a state outline on a jersey is rare, its appearance in other areas of sports aesthetics is more widespread. Without leaving college basketball, one major example is the use of the state outline as part of the midcourt logo design. Some of the most storied college hoops programs employ this design, including North Carolina and Indiana (here’s an older version), for which it has become iconic. I think the state outline midcourt design is a really cool look, especially when it isn’t comically large (see the Texas schools below). The Big Twelve is a breeding ground for midcourt state outlines with three current schools sporting the design. Missouri used to have a simple outline, but recently has obscured it with the school’s tiger logo. In-state rivals Texas and Texas A&M (sublimated) have dueling state outline court designs, true to the notion that everything is bigger in Texas. The only other borderline current example I came across (bearing in mind that there are over 340 teams in Division I and I probably missed some) was Michigan State, which has two state outline logos on the court but not at midcourt

That rounds out the list of current state outline court designs (to the best of my knowledge), but it is not the complete compilation of historic examples as a number of schools used to have the design but don’t anymore. Tennessee is a recent convert, while Kansas replaced its state outline-flag combination design with a gigantic jayhawk when Bill Self took over in 2003. Ohio State and Oregon are other examples. One interesting case is Kentucky, which appears to have taken its 1977-78 team photo on a court with a midcourt state outline. However, those photos feature a brick wall in the background which probably indicates that it was taken at a practice facility - though it’s certainly possible that the practice court design mimicked the actual court design at Rupp Arena.* Without conclusive photographic evidence, it remains a mystery.

In addition to their appearances on college basketball courts, state outlines have also been part of logos for a number of professional sports franchises with at least one example from each of the four major U.S. leagues. In the MLB, the Minnesota Twins shake hands in front of the state outline, while the Texas Rangers used to have a couple of different state outline logos. In the NHL, state outlines appear on the secondary logos of three teams - the Tampa Bay Lightning (old logo too), the Phoenix Coyotes, and the Dallas Stars - though interestingly, none of them have an actual state in their name. (The New York Islanders’ logo does not technically qualify, but is worth mentioning because of the outline of Long Island in it). In the NBA, the Golden State Warriors used to have a very cool logo with the outline of California along the left side. Finally, in the NFL, the Dallas Texans (who later became the Kansas City Chiefs) had a couple of logos with the outline of Texas, including a very nice helmet design. And speaking of the Chiefs, they probably take the cake in state outline history by taking it up a notch and including the entire Midwest!

* Thanks to Ivan Reifman of the excellent Basketball Court Designs blog for pointing this out to me and for providing assistance in coming up with some state outline examples.

The ‘Hoos were ranked 2nd and 3rd by many publications going into the year, but faced an extremely difficult test in the season’s opening weekend. Virginia went to Greenville and took 2 of 3 from the Pirates of ECU, ranked as high as 11th. The successful road trip, coupled with LSU’s cupcake scheduling of Centenary and Texas’ series loss to New Mexico, vaulted the Cavaliers to the top of the Baseball America and Rivals.com polls.

A solid start on the mound and performance at the plate from Danny Hultzen lifted Virginia to an Opening Day victory on Friday. Steven Proscia helped the cause with a homer in the 6-2 win.

On Saturday, ECU pitcher Kevin Brandt shut down the Cavalier offense and led the Pirates to an easy 6-1 victory, evening up the series at one apiece. Robert Morey picked up his first career loss in six decisions for Virginia.

The rubber match on Sunday was a long, ugly affair, but the ‘Hoos prevailed thanks to 19 hits, including at least one from every starter. After building a big lead and then weathering a late Pirate rally, Virginia finally escaped with a 14-11 win to improve to 2-1 on the year.

UVa’s next nine contests are at home, including the home opener (Wednesday at 3PM vs. George Washington) and a three game set this weekend against Rhode Island.

Why would they be happy with that?  Well, one month ago, the team was entering ACC play and some were not even predicting three or four wins for them.  One month ago, a national ranking seemed ridiculous to talk about and a bid to the Big Dance seemed even more absurd.  One month ago, most fans (including myself) were just hoping they’d remain competitive in games.

Now, with five games to go in the season, people are booing and questioning the coach’s ability?

Don't press this!

Everybody needs to take a step back, and calm down.  Let’s look at how far this team has come and then decide if you want to boo and moan.

The team won just 10 games last year and only 4 in conference.  They were beaten by double digits in half of their conference games (eight) and only beat one ranked team (Clemson) all season.  They ranked dead last in offense AND defense and then they returned basically the whole team for the next year.

So far, they’ve eclipsed their win totals from last year (14 wins total, 5 in conference), have only three double digit conference losses so far (two of the other three were in OT), have knocked off three ranked teams (NOT including UNC who were Top 5 preseason), and have the third best scoring defense in the league.

(Major side not here about that Carolina game: yes I know they are on a down year and are losing to everyone…but we didn’t just beat them, we absolutely crushed them on their home floor.  Here’s a list of teams that didn’t do that to them this year: #11 Michigan State, #25 Georgia Tech, and #6 Duke.  If you want to take it further, #2 Kentucky couldn’t do it at their place, #10 Ohio State and #5 Syracuse couldn’t do it on a neutral floor, and #15 Texas couldn’t do it in front of 100,000 people.  We gave Roy Williams his worst home loss at UNC after not having beaten them in six years.  That was a huge win.  Side note over.)

And, again, this is the same team! Sure Jontel Evans has stepped up big, but he definitely hasn’t replaced the points generated by Mamadi Diane.  It’s essentially the same guys.

This team is playing exactly how I predicted but people are starting to press the panic button.  Why?  The Icarus Theory (yes I just made it up but it totally makes sense).  It’s when a team succeeds too soon and sets the minimum bar too high for them to get over consistently.  We saw it after 2006-2007 when Singletary and Reynolds nearly led us to the Sweet Sixteen and we could be seeing it again with this season.

This team played out of their minds after the massive snowstorm in December ripping off eight wins in a row and 10 out of 12.  Before that, they were 4-4 with some disappointing losses and no one was talking about them.  If they had continued playing like that (winning every other game with the occasional two in a row), they would have ended up with the same record at this point in the season but fans would be fine with it.

By shooting out of the gate and getting everyone’s hopes up (flying too close to the sun in Icarus’ case), this team that has several major flaws set itself up for massive failure in the eyes of the casual fan (which is the vast majority here at UVa…it’s true, don’t whine).

And, honestly, if you look at this four game skid beyond just the fact that they’re L’s, it really isn’t that bad.  Or at the very least, it’s understandable.

First loss: Home against Wake Forest

Wake is freaking tall…like they have three 7-footers and we have one.  This poses a major problem for us because Sylven makes his living on driving and getting to the line.  How do you solve this problem?  Shoot well, especially with a big man, and get them in foul trouble.  Sadly, the latter strategy is nearly impossible when Wake can throw four guys out there who are above 6-10.  We fouled two of their trees out and still had to contend with two more.

The other solution is more complex because you need big guys to shoot well so you can space the floor for Sylven’s driving game, but you also need to be able to play defense against them on the other end.  That’s what really killed us because Sherrill could not bang with Aminu and Woods when he needed to (he also failed to shoot like himself which only compounded the problem).

Same goes for Mike Scott.  He came out firing and had 10 or 12 points in the first eight minutes of the game.  But he couldn’t match the physicality of Wake on the other end, picked up early fouls, and lost his rhythm.

Despite all of these problems, we still went to overtime and had a chance to win it but Sherrill’s shooting woes continued and we finished just short.

Second loss: Away against Virginia Tech

Another close loss that got away on a ridiculous Jeff Allen three pointer with under 2 minutes to play.  Tech played great defense and we didn’t shoot well (if we don’t shoot well, we lose).  For me, any game that comes down to the last few minutes isn’t a bad loss, especially since we went to OT against them the first time as well.

Third loss: Away against Maryland

I have a hard time defending this one because I didn’t get a chance to see the game.  From looking at the stats though, it’s clear that Maryland shot the ball out of their collective mind.  Whether this was because of bad defense (i.e. the shots were all layups) or luck (threes and contested jumpers), I don’t know but remember, they did the same thing to us at their place last season and we rocked them in our house.

Fourth loss: Home to Florida State

Fatigue, fatigue, and more fatigue.  That is what caused this one.  Three games in five days is the type of schedule professionals have; these guys are not used to it and they did not respond well at all.  Shots were forced up with tired legs, passes were missed, and defensive intensity was sorely lacking at points.  With a few days off and concentration restored, I bet you we’d win that game if we played them again.

Inflated expectations are the only thing that’s different about this team from a month ago and that is killing people’s perception of this season.  There is no shame in an NIT bid for this team after last year.  Heck, if the guys win four of their last five with Duke being one of them, I think we have a good enough resume to be seriously on the bubble.

I warned about expectations when we fired Leitao and hired Bennett last April because in this era of instant gratification, people overreact way too fast and our basketball program has suffered because of it.

If people don’t step back and realize that we aren’t a power program who gets brought to the Promised Land by NBA-bound one-and-dones, Bennett will meet the same fate as Leitao and basketball will be terrible here for years to come.  It took Bennett and his father a full four seasons to get the Wazzou Cougars to the Sweet Sixteen.  He knows it isn’t going to happen overnight and he’s said as much throughout the season.  Students and other fans should wake up and realize it too or else the atmosphere at JPJ will stink once more and we’ll be headed back down the road to basketball obscurity.

Here’s my point: based on how we played out of conference, I predicted seven wins for this team and they’re right on pace for that.  This season is not a failure, so fans need to not treat it as such.  Come to the last two home games and cheer for these guys who have endured an abysmal 08-09 season, a coaching change, a great run, and a fall back to earth.

They’re getting better and that’s really all we should expect from them.

The Cavaliers are returning nearly all key contributors from last year’s ACC championship and College World Series run, and have been ranked as high as #2 nationally going into this season. This weekend’s series poses a large challenge, though. The Pirates are ranked 11th, and due to the horrendous weather in Charlottesville lately, the Cavs haven’t had much of a chance to play outdoors–which is precisely why spring training for Major League Baseball is just starting this week. Why does college baseball have to start so soon?

Regardless, it’s great to have a powerhouse Virginia team in a mainstream sport back in action again after a miserable football season and a recent men’s basketball slump. This fall’s soccer title all of a sudden feels a long way off, so let’s hope the baseball team can bring some more hardware home this season.

So how does the NCAA Tournament field project at this time?

Below are the bids I expect each conference to receive, with the leagues listed in alphabetical order.  “Lock” signifies a team that would definitely earn an at-large bid if the season ended today.  The designation of “On the Bubble” represents teams with questionable tournament statuses, but whose tickets the selection committee would likely punch.  “Off the Bubble” teams are equally iffy, but in slightly worse positions to make the Big Dance.  A conference’s number of bids is the total of the one automatic bid, locks, and on the bubble teams.  Lastly, numbers in parentheses denote team Ratings Per Index, as per www.realtimerpi.com (and accurate as of last Tuesday).

Atlantic 10 (5)

Auto: Richmond (29)

Locks: Temple (12), Xavier (25)

On the Bubble: Rhode Island (26), Dayton (34)

Off the Bubble: Charlotte (51)

Despite a now glowing 22-point win at Louisville on its resume, Charlotte has found itself on the outside looking in after blowing a home game against a mediocre Duquesne team.  Blowout losses to Duke (by 42), Old Dominion (33), Tennessee (17), and Dayton (28), undercut the win at Louisville and conference victories at Richmond and against Temple.  Rhode Island is headed down the Charlotte path after a loss at Saint Louis, and four losses by five points or fewer damage URI’s cause.   So why pick the Rams over the 49ers?  Better computer numbers, fewer losses, and more consistency.  The March 3^rd meeting between the teams could serve as a virtual elimination game.

As for the rest of the conference, Richmond, Temple, and Xavier are securely in, while Dayton maintains a better-than-good shot at dancing in March.  A very attainable 4-2 stretch for the Flyers will probably secure for them a double-digit tournament seed.  Along with the Colonial, this remains one of the more intriguing conference races, as the number of at-large bids available to major-conference teams will fluctuate greatly base on how A-10 contenders perform over the season’s final month.

America East (1)

Auto: Stony Brook (146)

Atlantic Coast (7)

Auto: Duke (2)

Lock: Wake Forest (14)

On the Bubble: Georgia Tech (28), Clemson (35), Maryland (37), Florida State (40), Virginia Tech (47)

The ACC at-large picture is obviously the most clear-cut of any major conference.  The bottom line: these seven teams are easily in, and everyone else is easily out.  Because of poor non-conference performances, Virginia Tech and Maryland probably need to win 10 or 11 ACC games to sew up at-large berths.  The other five “in” teams can afford to finish at 8-8 and still feel relatively assured of tickets to the Big Dance.  Yes, it’s that simple.

Atlantic Sun (1)

Auto: Campbell (192)

Big East (7)

Auto: Syracuse (4)

Locks: Villanova (5), West Virginia (6), Georgetown (8), Pittsburgh (13)

On the Bubble: Louisville (30), Marquette (62)

Off the Bubble: Connecticut (48), Cincinnati (50), Seton Hall (54), South Florida (56)

Will the madness in the Big East ever stop?  After counting out Louisville (blowout loss at Saint John’s) and UConn (similar result at Cincinnati), those teams rebounded for road wins at Syracuse and Villanova, respectively.  Right now, the difference between “On the Bubble” Louisville and Marquette and the other five at-large hopefuls is simple: an above-.500 conference record.  All seven bubble teams have their flaws, so conference record is perhaps the best basis of comparison between them.  The stretch run will certainly continue get interesting in the Big East, with the seven bubble teams almost playing a round-robin over the season’s final month.  As they say, there are no nights off in this league.

Big Sky (1)

Auto: Weber State (72)

Big South (1)

Auto: Coastal Carolina (134)

Big Ten (5)

Auto: Michigan State (24)

Locks: Purdue (9), Wisconsin (15),

On the Bubble: Ohio State (42), Illinois (71)

Though this league has a clear top four teams, Illinois receives the Big Ten’s fifth at-large bid for a few reasons.  A 9-4 conference mark, including wins against Michigan State and at Wisconsin, is the biggest one.  The Illini have a few other good wins, including at Clemson and against Vanderbilt.  The pock mark keeping them around the bubble is that unsightly RPI.  Yet neutral-site losses to Utah and Bradley back in November artificially inflated that number; with wins there, I suspect Illinois is around 50 in the RPI.  The committee should be able to look past those flukes, after which all of Illinois’ good wins came.  Losses by Minnesota (at Northwestern) and Northwestern (against Penn State) effectively end those teams’ at-large hopes.

Big West (1)

Auto: Pacific (117)

Big XII (7)

Auto: Kansas (1)

Locks: Kansas State (7), Baylor (11), Texas A&M (17), Texas (27)

On the Bubble: Oklahoma State (32), Missouri (38)

Off the Bubble: Texas Tech (43)

The Big XII, for my money the most exciting league in college basketball, will produce five to seven NCAA Tournament berths this year.  Some changes this week: Baylor takes a huge step up to lock status thanks to wins against Mizzou and Texas Tech; Oklahoma State moves closer to lock status; and Texas, while not in contention to lose its lock status, has officially announced its intention to not compete for a Final  Four spot as many in the preseason thought it would.  Texas Tech would seem to be in better position considering its solid RPI, but the Red Raiders are 4-7 in conference play and have shown an inability to beat quality competition on the road.

Colonial Athletic (3)

Auto: Northeastern (59)

On the Bubble: Old Dominion (41), William & Mary (46)

Off the Bubble: Virginia Commonwealth (65)

Admittedly, I have probably been overvaluing the CAA on a consistent basis.  This is probably a one-bid league if ODU wins the conference tournament; the Monarchs are the only team with secure at-large standing.  A sweep of Old Dominion (the teams play again on 2/27) would help VCU improve its RPI and add a quality road win, but with consecutive losses at the Founding Fathers - George Mason and James Madison - the Rams are off the bubble for now.  Despite a gaudy 13-3 conference mark, Northeastern - which lost twice to, of all teams, Drexel - needs to win the CAA Tournament for a Dance ticket.  W&M certainly has the non-conference resume to make a legitimate claim for an at-large berth (wins against  Richmond, at Wake Forest, and at Maryland), but has only revived its chances thanks to a recent four-game win streak.  The Tribe will probably finish 13-5 in the conference, which right now is enough for a bid and last four in status.

Conference USA (2)

Auto: UTEP (58)

On the Bubble: Alabama Birmingham (31)

Off the Bubble: Memphis (61), Marshall (63), Tulsa (70)

While UTEP remains in position to win the regular season C-USA crown, the Miners lack the overall profile of an at-large contender.  And although Memphis is making a charge at an at-large bid, Josh Pastner’s team is a year away from getting back to the Big Dance.  Marshall and Tulsa are non-factors, though their RPIs are good enough to give them a quick shout-out here.  Even the league’s only serious at-large contender, UAB, has yet to firmly stake its claim to an extra bid.  The C-USA would be lucky to receive two berths this year.

Horizon League (1)

Auto: Butler (22)

Ivy League (1)

Auto: Cornell (55)

Metro Atlantic Athletic (1)

Auto: Siena (33)

Mid American (1)

Auto: Kent State (58)

Mid-Eastern Athletic (1)

Auto: Morgan State (121)

Missouri Valley (1)

Auto: Northern Iowa (23)

Off the Bubble: Wichita State (53)

Though the Shockers have a nice 6-6 road/neutral mark, an average RPI, and a split with Northern Iowa, they are not a serious threat to earn an at-large berth.  Meanwhile, the Panthers’ gaudy 11-3 road/neutral mark enhances their overall record, and they probably will not need to beat Old Dominion in Friday’s Bracket Buster match-up to earn an at-large bid.

Mountain West (3)

Auto: New Mexico (10)

Locks: Brigham Young (19), Nevada-Las Vegas (44)

Off the Bubble: San Diego State (39)

With back-to-back road losses to San Diego State and Utah, UNLV moves perilously close to the bubble with a 7-5 MWC mark.  That makes three losses in a row for the Runnin’ Rebels, who should win their final four conference games.  If they make it to 11-5 and the MWC Finals, they probably have enough juice for an at-large bid; if not, the selection committee may look upon this recent stretch and say, “No, thanks.”  San Diego State, meanwhile, has the computer profile to make it to the Dance, but lacks quality wins both out of conference and away from home.  The Aztecs will have to make at least the finals of the MWC Tournament to earn a look from the selection committee.  UNM and BYU are both three-loss teams that will destroy the brackets of those who undervalue mid-major teams in March.

Northeast (1)

Auto: Robert Morris (159)

Ohio Valley (1)

Auto: Murray State (79)

Pac 10 (1)

Auto: California (21)

Off the Bubble: Washington (52), Arizona State (67), Southern Cal (82)

Treat this league like the WAC or Horizon: if the team currently in first loses in the conference tournament, it’s a two-bid league.  If not, it’s a one-berth situation.  Washington declared its contention for an at-large bid by finally winning on the road, but “at Stanford” won’t count for anything in the committee’s eyes.  The Huskies could have really strengthened their resume by winning in Berkeley, but they will have to settle for an NIT bid unless they win the Pac-10 Tournament.  Speaking of Cal, the Bears have shown through fairly one-sided losses against Syracuse, at Kansas, and at Washington that they will not be a factor in the NCAA Tournament, but hey, at least they’ll make it one way or another.  Arizona State has a good record (18-8) and a manageable RPI, and USC has quality wins in abundance, but both are non-factors for a tournament berth.

Patriot League (1)

Auto: Lehigh (170)

Southeastern (3)

Auto: Kentucky (3)

Locks: Vanderbilt (16), Tennessee (20)

Off the Bubble: Mississippi (49), Florida (60), Mississippi State (64), South Carolina (76)

Nothing need be said about Vandy, UT, and UK - those three are primed to do damage in the Big Dance.  The rest of the SEC is a bit of a mess, however.  With games remaining against each of the top four SEC teams in terms of RPI, Florida has the best shot of playing its way onto the right side of the bubble; however, considering how the Gators have fared in big games this year, there’s hardly a good chance of that circumstance coming to fruition.  Mississippi is next in the pecking order, but its only in-conference win against a fellow bubble team (and that’s even a stretch) is against South Carolina.  Mississippi State swept Ole Miss and could have made a huge statement by beating Kentucky at home, but poor defense down the stretch and dubious officiating negated that opportunity.  South Carolina isn’t really an at-large team, but it remains the only school to beat Kentucky, and that’s got to count for something, right?

Southern (1)

Auto: Charleston (106)

Southland (1)

Auto: Sam Houston State (69)

Southwestern Athletic (1)

Auto: Jackson State (218)

Summit League (1)

Auto: Oakland (66)

Sun Belt (1)

Auto: North Texas (138)

West Coast (2)

Auto: Gonzaga (24)

On the Bubble: Saint Mary’s (45)

Saint Mary’s has not exactly earned an at-large bid to this point, with a 2-3 record against the RPI top 50 that includes an 0-2 mark against WCC heavyweight Gonzaga.  But the Gaels are 20-5, own an impressive 9-3 road/neutral record, and stand a good chance of an at-large berth despite losing at Portland last week.  If they make it back to the finals of the conference tournament, their overall record, RPI, and decent wins (a 5-5 mark against the RPI top 100) will make it hard for the selection committee to ignore SMC, especially if the bubble continues to contract.

Western Athletic (1)

Auto: Utah State (36)

Off the Bubble: Nevada (68), Louisiana Tech (73), New Mexico State (74)

Winner of 11 consecutive games, Utah State has a chance to enter a March 6^th battle for the WAC regular season title with New Mexico State on a 13-game winning streak.  The Aggies, who have a marquee win (against BYU) on their resume, are probably an at-large team if they lose in the WAC Finals.  None of these other teams are in at-large contention, but one of them will usurp the conference’s at-large bid if USU stumbles in the conference tournament.  Keep an eye on this league: it could become a “stolen bid” situation on Selection Sunday.

Last Four In

Marquette

UNLV

William & Mary

Saint Mary’s

First Four Out

San Diego State

UConn

Florida

Cincinnati

Next Four Out

South Florida

Mississippi

Charlotte

VCU

8:00 p.m. ET: ESPN360 thought I wanted to watch the Niagara-Saint Peter’s women’s game, but luckily I don’t miss the tipoff of UVA-Maryland as a result.

8:02: Quint Kessenich doing play-by-play (Did ESPN think this was an ACC lacrosse game?) with Dwight Freeman, former coach of Norfolk State, doing the analysis. The Star Watch graphic oddly shows Sammy Zeglinski and Eric Hayes. Not sure those are the two “stars” I would have picked.

8:04: Maryland wins the jump ball, but is wearing their hideous yellow uniforms. UVA looking great in their navy set. Can we call the result of the opening tip a push?

8:05: Landon Milbourne hits a jumper to give Maryland the early 2-0 lead.

8:06: Kessenich: “Zeglinski still cold.” 1 minute, 13 seconds into the game. Maybe it’s a little early for that.

8:07: 6-0 start for Maryland. Where’s Landesberg?

8:07: Right on cue, Sylven knocks down a three.

8:11: There definitely are commercials, but it looks like the Internet variety. This could mean that it’s just the same ones over and over, like on Hulu. Oh, and of course, they will be much louder than the game broadcast. Stay tuned.

8:12: Mike Scott apparently just forgot that you can’t just jump up and down with the ball without dribbling, passing, or shooting.

8:15: Nice to see Jeff Jones is still alive - four points early, but Vazquez and his terrible faux-hawk draws a foul at the other end

8:16: Dwight Freeman is 3-for-3 pronouncing Vasquez “Vaz-kwez” instead of “Vaz-kez.” Gonna be a long game.

8:16: Will Sherrill (who’s been a nice surprise this season) turns it over for a Maryland dunk at the other end. 18-11 Terps.

8:19: Yup, I think I was right about the commercials. I’m going to be hearing about Dove Men+Care a lot tonight.

8:21: Sherrill misses a second open three. Maryland hits another shot. Shooting 64.7% from the field halfway through the first half.

8:23: Jeff Jones hits a three. Again, nice to have him producing. It was starting to look like a Mamadi Diane situation for him. Also, Jeff Jones is one of those guys that you have to say his first and last name whenever you refer to him.

8:25: Kessenich mentions that Maryland was off from school all last week and claims that when he went to Johns Hopkins, class wasn’t cancelled for anything short of a nuclear disaster. Hmm, I know a place like that…

8:25: I’ve been really impressed with Virginia’s defense this year. The porousness (real word?) of the defense the past few seasons has been patched up and the commitment to help defense has been effective without leaving guys on the other team wide-open. It’s refreshing to have a coach preach defense from his team and then actually hold them accountable for that. With that said, I’m getting some flashbacks to the D of the past four years in the game tonight.

8:26: What is the deal with announcers’ fascination with coach’s sons? I feel like this has been a recurring theme this season. Maybe it’s influenced by Bennett since it’s a requirement in every broadcast to reiterate that he played for his dad then coached for with his dad then replaced his dad and all that. But I feel like broadcasters are mentioning it a lot more in non-Virginia games for players as well. It’s getting a little tired.

8:28: Vasquez just threw a ball off the backboard, off the Jumbotron, and off Gary Williams’ head and it went in. He has 18 to lead all scorers by leaps and bounds. Farrakhan turns it over on the other end and Maryland hits a wide-open three. This is getting out of control. Timeout Virginia.

8:29: Dove Men+Care for the third time. They really want me to be comfortable in my own skin.

8:30: Now we have a timeout where we get to hear Kessenich pontificate about nothing for two minutes. This is what happens when you get ESPN’s GG broadcast team.

8:34: I think Freeman just called Zeglinski “Galinski.” Reminds me of the time an announcer called me “Kevin Zalazinski” every time I came up to bat for a game in high school.

8:37: Vasquez hits a three to bring his total to 21, half of Maryland’s 42 to Virginia’s 27. Under-four-minute timeout. Dove Men+Care Round 4.

8:40: Maryland is just blowing past Virginia defenders and dominating in the paint. Gary Williams isn’t even working up a sweat. Terps just want it more right now.

8:42: Maryland fans stay classy as always as Sylven Landesberg shoots two free throws.

8:43: Kessenich: “Landesberg is a scorer. He’s just a scorer.” Umm, not tonight. 8 points on 3-8 shooting through 18 minutes with Vasquez torching his team.

8:43: Freeman adds that Sylven doesn’t do anything great, he just does everything well. Wait, wasn’t he the ACC Freshman of the Year last season and isn’t he tied for third in the league in scoring right now?

8:45: Jontel Evans causes a turnover. QK (guessing that wasn’t his nickname growing up) calls it a rare mistake by Maryland. That is factually correct.

8:47: 52-34 Terps at the half. Definitely wouldn’t want to be in there with Coach Bennett right now. They need a Hoosiers-level pep talk to turn this around.

8:49: I wonder if there is a soap out there that can help make me comfortable in my own skin…

9:00: Looking at the halftime stats, I’m pretty sure ESPN360 wants a mulligan on their picks for Star Watch. Sammy Zeglinski: 0 points, 0 rebounds, 1 assist. Eric Hayes: 8 points, 1 rebound, 5 assists. Not a terrible pick on the Maryland side, until you see that Vazquez has 25 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, and 1 bad haircut.

9:02: Vasquez is on pace for 50 points, not on par, QK.

9:04: Nice move by Mike Scott, but it won’t fall and then Maryland beats them to the rebound, goes down the court, and scores easily. The play-by-play is starting to sound like a broken record.

9:05: Everything continues to fall for the Terps (I spent a minute trying to come up with a Chicken Little-related joke here, but decided against it).

9:07: Nice pass by Galinski to Jeff Jones, who makes a second chance lay-up and now leads the team with 14. He’s just three points away from his season-high back on November 24th against Stanford. Can you tell I’m trying desperately to find a bright spot in a 56-36 game?

9:09: Former Norfolk State coach Dwight Freeman made a name for himself making guys on other teams go left-handed? Funny, I didn’t know his name until 8:02 PM tonight.

9:10: No Dove commercial!!?! Nope, two minutes of a black screen and silence. I should be happy, but I’ve been conditioned to think this means something is wrong with my computer…

9:12: Game abruptly comes back on. Phew.

9:13: Apparently, it’s going to be tough for Virginia to win without Landesberg scoring. Even though he’s not great, Dwight?

9:14: Cliff Tucker for Maryland just weaved through defenders like a stock car driver through traffic cones then dished to Landon Milbourne for a lay-up. When did Maryland become early-70s UCLA?

9:16: The Terrapins are basically putting on the basketball equivalent of Tom Emanski’s training videos tonight.

9:18: They just played the same Matt Ryan Gillette Fusion commercial two times in a row. Can Matt Ryan even grow facial hair?

9:19: Shatner Priceline commercial reminds me of this YouTube classic (that I somehow didn’t see for the first time until last week).

9:22: Kessenich says for the 80th time that Bennett is a positive, even-keeled guy. Not sure how even-keeled he will be after this one.

9:23: ESPN360 ruins my running Dove joke by doing another blank timeout break and not showing a Dove commercial since halftime.

9:28: Vasquez hasn’t scored in the second half. Mind-boggling considering what he did in the first.

9:30: Farrakhan tries to get another dunk in Sportscenter Top 10…and gets rejected. What’s more surprising: that or the fact that Microsoft Word doesn’t think Farrakhan needs to be spell-checked?

9:31: Oh, Dove Men+Care, how I have missed you. Tell me more about micromoisture!

9:35: Maryland got a verbal from something called a Pe’Shon Howard. Had to look up how to spell his first name. Is it insensitive to say the apostrophe name thing is getting a little out of hand?

9:37: Freeman sums up the game with one of the few meaningful things he’s said all night: “Everything Maryland throws up goes in.”

9:38: Maryland shooting 70% from the field. I think that qualifies as everything going in.

9:39: Bennet trots out Tristan Spurlock. When does Will Sherrill get some scrub time? Oh, wait…

9:40: By the eighth time you see the commercial, Dove Men+Care doesn’t seem that new. Just sayin.

9:42: Spurlock ruins his bid for back-to-back Trillions with a two-handed jam and some hanging on the rim for good measure. He should probably keep in mind the score, but it’s Maryland so who really cares?

9:43: Gary Williams sweats profusely when he eats a sandwich and he hasn’t needed to dab his brow once tonight.

9:47: Farrakhan finally gets his dunk to cut the deficit to 19.

9:48: Maryland 85, Virginia 66, Final. The Terps improve to 7-3, tied for third in the league. The Hoos fall to 5-5, fifth in the standings (but behind six teams).

In hindsight, maybe this wasn’t the best game for my first running diary. It’s a game that the Hoos shouldn’t dwell on. It got out of hand early, and there’s only so much you can do when a team makes 70% of their shots. Virginia has too tough a schedule coming up to let this linger. This team still has a legitimate shot to finish above .500 in the ACC. It won’t be easy; it will take the focus and dedication that the team showed through January when they sat atop the conference standings. Besides, they’ve got at least one game in the bag: UVA has beaten Maryland at home three straight years (the last two to close out the regular season). Thanks for reading. Now, I have to go find some Dove Men+Care.

Photo: Icethetics.info

I watched the Super Bowl at a friend’s apartment on Sunday and during one of the commercial breaks (which were actually worth watching for the first time in recent years) his roommate mentioned the Olympics. When I told him I was excited for them, he said, “For what sport?” Without hesitation, I replied, “Hockey.”

I love international sports competitions like the Olympics and the World Cup because of the intense patriotism it brings out of the players and fans. The Olympics persuade me to watch sports I otherwise wouldn’t check out, so when they include sports that I actually do watch during the two years or so between Games, I catch that Olympic fever even more. Hockey is one such sport. My Olympic hockey fixation dates back to 2002 when I ended up watching a couple full days of games, one after the other regardless of the countries involved. I’m a sitting duck for this type of setup, like a television channel that doesn’t put commercials between the end of one show and the beginning of another so that you get sucked into watching something you weren’t originally planning to. Throw in the fact that 2002 saw the United States take home silver, marking the first US hockey medal since the Miracle on Ice and I was hooked. The 2006 Games didn’t go as well for the Americans, but I was as invested as I was four years before and now in 2010 I’m ready to go.

This might be obvious from my column archive, but I am also excited to see the jerseys that the countries will be wearing in the Olympic tournament. You can check out all of them here. As you can see, the United States will have three jerseys: white, navy, and retro-style white. Speaking as objectively as I can, I think Team USA is going to be one of the best-dressed teams in the field. Canada and Sweden are definitely on the medal stand with them, but the rest of the jerseys are too busy and “modernized” without adding anything to the uniform in my opinion. The United States went the opposite direction, scaling back the striping and extra embellishments. Whereas I could go on all day nitpicking some of the other teams’ sweaters, there’s really only a couple drawbacks for the Americans. For one, the sleeve stripes don’t wrap all the way around on either jersey which is an unfortunate trend in the NHL right now. The navy jerseys feature an ugly star on the shoulder as well as watermarked tribal graphics on the sleeves and back (more on that later). The retro is a nice touch, but it’s inexcusable to wear it with navy pants. Otherwise, the set is very solid.

In my column about the US’s World Baseball Classic jerseys last year, I mentioned how the battle for best USA wordmark was a toss-up between the baseball and hockey. That was originally one of my other gripes with these uniforms: the lack of the usual USA Hockey logo on the front of the jersey. I also included a link in that column to this jersey from the 2008 World Championship which, along with the accompanying white (on the right), is probably my favorite Team USA jersey. It turns out that I can’t blame USA Hockey for the crest’s absence in the Olympics as the team couldn’t use that logo anymore because of an IOC rule about not putting official team logos on the jersey (this was a huge deal for hockey-crazed Canada whose maple leaf logo had to be altered for the Games). The decision to go with a conservative, yet classic “USA” is a solid compromise given the circumstances.

Now about those watermark graphics. You probably didn’t notice them because they only appear on the lower back and sleeves of the jersey, but they are there. Nike seems to be adding this to everything it touches these days and I’m not a fan. One of its first appearances was on Team USA Basketball’s jerseys in the 2008 Olympics and then with Duke last season. Just last week, Texas, UCONN, and Syracuse all unveiled new jerseys with the watermark tribal graphics as well. It appears you have to be pretty close to make out the graphics, otherwise it just looks like a huge sweat spot on the back of the jersey. While the lingering question remains if spectators can’t see them then what’s the point of having them in the first place, I’m just glad that watermark graphics are not going to be very visible on the ice during games. All in all, the classic, clean look of the States definitely medals in aesthetics for my money. Hopefully the squad can equal that feat in the actual tournament too so we can hear the Star-Spangled Banner to close out the Games.

So how does the NCAA Tournament field project at this time?

Below are the bids I expect each conference to receive, with the leagues listed in alphabetical order.  “Lock” signifies a team that would definitely earn an at-large bid if the season ended today.  The designation of “On the Bubble” represents teams with questionable tournament statuses, but whose tickets the selection committee would likely punch.  “Off the Bubble” teams are equally iffy, but in slightly worse positions to make the Big Dance.  A conference’s number of bids is the total of the one automatic bid, locks, and on the bubble teams.  Lastly, numbers in parentheses denote team Ratings Per Index, as per www.realtimerpi.com (and accurate as of last Tuesday).

America East (1)

Auto: Stony Brook (156)

Atlantic 10 (6)

Auto: Charlotte (46)

Locks: Rhode Island (13), Temple (17)

On the Bubble: Xavier (27), Richmond (30), Dayton (34)

Yes, you read that correctly.  The A-10 is possibly as strong as it’s ever been this season, with an unprecedented six teams in good positions for at-large candidacy.  Besides Dayton, each of these teams still has a realistic chance at the regular season conference title.  The only team even close to “Last Four In” status is Charlotte, whose non-conference profile (which includes a 42-point loss at Duke and a 33-point loss at Old Dominion) is questionable.  However, an 18-5 (8-1) mark that leads the conference, plus a respectable RPI, keep the 49ers in the hunt.  Convincing home wins by Dayton and Richmond over Xavier and Temple, respectively, even out the top of the league and muddle the A-10 picture to the point where five of these teams (not including Charlotte) stand on almost identical at-large footing.

Atlantic Coast (6)

Auto: Duke (4)

Lock: Wake Forest (13)

On the Bubble: Georgia Tech (23), Florida State (37), Clemson (41), Maryland (42)

Off the Bubble: Virginia Tech (63)

Georgia Tech and Florida State are essentially locks, but their non-league profiles are poor enough where a serious dip in conference play could jeopardize their chances of an at-large berth.  Speaking of collapses, Clemson has lost four of five and is teetering on “Last Four In” status, but did enough outside the ACC (wins vs. Butler and at home against South Carolina) to justify its inclusion.  The Terps have come on strong to position themselves near the top of the league, and the only thing keeping them away from lock status is average computer numbers.  Virginia Tech has played its way onto the bubble, but remains far from an at-large berth thanks to a weak 1-2 record against the RPI Top 50 and a cupcake schedule (ranked 189 in the country).

Atlantic Sun (1)

Auto: Lipscomb (199)

Big East (5)

Auto: Syracuse (2)

Locks: Villanova (3), West Virginia (6), Georgetown (7), Pittsburgh (18)

Off the Bubble: Louisville (43), South Florida (50), Cincinnati (55), Connecticut (57), Notre Dame (59), Marquette (60), Seton Hall (64)

Not one, not two, but seven Big East teams sit right at the bubble, and the margin for error is essentially zero.  Call it a hunch, but I see Marquette (which struggled winning road games a tight contests earlier this year but is currently on a four-game win streak) putting it together and sewing up an at-large bid later this month; however, their computer numbers cannot justify inclusion into the tournament at this point despite a four-game win streak.  The rest of the bubble foes have their own flaws: Louisville, Notre Dame, and South Florida have pathetic non-conference resumes; UConn has entered free-fall mode, losing six of its past nine; Cincinnati has struggled to win on the road (its only true road victory came at #127 Rutgers); and Seton Hall is 3-7 in conference play.  This may not be the deepest league in the country anymore, considering the absurd amount of mediocrity from spots 6-12.

Big Sky (1)

Auto: Weber State (80)

Big South (1)

Auto: Coastal Carolina (141)

Big Ten (5)

Auto: Illinois (65)

Locks: Purdue (9), Wisconsin (16), Michigan State (21)

On the Bubble: Ohio State (40)

Off the Bubble: Minnesota (62), Northwestern (67)

When did winning Big Ten games on the road get easy?  Victories by Illinois (at Wisconsin) and Purdue (at Michigan State) in the past week, the top of the conference has suddenly become very murky.  The Illini have now knocked off MSU and Wisconsin in their past two games, adding marquee wins to a resume that already includes gems like “at Clemson” and “Vanderbilt.”  Now that the computer numbers are starting to improve, Illinois looks like an increasingly good bet to earn an at-large bid.  Ohio State will be an interesting case for the selection committee, as the Buckeyes are a red-hot 15-3 with Evan Turner in the lineup but stand fourth in the league standings.  Minnesota has failed to impress, winning on the road only against the two worst league teams, and Northwestern (while overachieving) lacks the computer numbers and major victories to claim an at-large bid.

Big West (1)

Auto: Pacific (112)

Big XII (7)

Auto: Kansas (1)

Locks: Kansas State (8), Texas A&M (19), Texas (27)

On the Bubble: Baylor (28), Texas Tech (29), Oklahoma State (36)

Texas did plenty over its non-conference slate, and thank goodness for Longhorns fans, because Bevo & Co. are in a free-fall after receiving a home-court beat down from true conference top dog Kansas.  The Horns are still a lock, but they’ve jeopardized their seeding after losing for the fifth time in seven games.  Texas A&M, on the other hand, made a huge push, rallying to win at Missouri and then again at home against Baylor.  Missouri and Baylor both fared relatively well outside the league, and simply need to maintain a .500 league record to receive a seed in the 5-8 range.  Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are almost on the exact same footing; the teams have similar computer profiles and both stand at 4-5 in the conference.  Because of the conference’s strength and help from the computers, both teams earn a spot for now - but need to hover at .500 in Big XII play to feel confident about their long-term chances.

Colonial Athletic (3)

Auto: Northeastern (54)

On the Bubble: Old Dominion (35), Virginia Commonwealth (56)

Off the Bubble: William & Mary (52)

With its 11-2 league mark and tie-breakers over ODU and VCU, the Colonial regular season crown is Northeastern’s to lose.  The Huskies aren’t in great position for an at-large bid, but it remains to be seen how much value the selection committee will place on its strong league wins.  Old Dominion, on the other hand, has a very well-rounded profile, and remains only about 10 RPI points from lock status.  The decision to add Virginia Commonwealth to the bubble is a difficult one; the Rams’ recent loss at George Mason muddles their at-large chances.  Still, VCU has a 6-4 record against the RPI Top 100 (4-0 out of conference) and is 3-0 against the Top 50.  A relatively easy finish to the season should see the Rams end at 12-6 in the league, just enough to squeak by with an at-large bid.  W&M has lost four of six to fade from the at-large picture.  This is probably not a three-bid league at the end of the season, but as of this moment, there are few more enticing options.

Conference USA (2)

Auto: UTEP (58)

On the Bubble: Alabama Birmingham (30)

Off the Bubble: Tulsa (61), Memphis (75)

With only one conference loss and wins at Memphis, at UAB, and over Tulsa, UTEP is in the best shape to claim the C-USA regular season crown.  Where that leads them, though, is unknown; the Miners have to win the league’s postseason tournament to go Dancing.  UAB has two good non-league wins (over Cincinnati and Butler) and a strong enough computer profile to feel good about its at-large chances.  The other schools simply lack most elements of a strong at-large resume, and appear here only because their chances of winning the C-USA Tournament are fairly strong.

Horizon League (1)

Auto: Butler (12)

Ivy League (1)

Auto: Cornell (48)

Metro Atlantic Athletic (1)

Auto: Siena (33)

Mid American (1)

Auto: Kent State (66)

Mid-Eastern Athletic (1)

Auto: Morgan State (117)

Missouri Valley (1)

Auto: Northern Iowa (15)

Off the Bubble: Wichita State (51)

A loss at Evansville seriously dampens WSU’s bid for an at-large berth, although Gregg Marshall has his squad about a year or so from competing with big-time programs.  Northern Iowa has won a remarkable five road games in a league where winning away from home is a chore, to put it kindly.  This conference gets two bids only if the Panthers falter in the MVC Tournament.

Mountain West (3)

Auto: Nevada-Las Vegas (32)

Locks: New Mexico (10), Brigham Young (20)

Off the Bubble: San Diego State (38)

An oh-so-close, crushing double-overtime loss in New Mexico effectively ends San Diego State’s at-large chances, barring a miraculous run over the next month.  Instead, the power trio atop the MWC continues to beat up on each other and only each other (see: UNLV’s home dismantling of BYU).  Those three teams have a combined record of 60-10, and make no mistake about it: all of those teams are legit.

Northeast (1)

Auto: Robert Morris (158)

Ohio Valley (1)

Auto: Murray State (89)

Pac 10 (1)

Auto: California (25)

Off the Bubble: Washington (53), Arizona (70), Arizona State (74), Southern Cal (78)

If Cal falters in the Pac-10 Tournament, they might actually not receive an at-large bid (these things happen when your best non-league win is over Murray State).  The Bears have an 0-4 mark against the RPI Top 50 and a 3-7 record against the Top 100.  Washington looks fine aside from two facts: the Huskies are 6-5 in a bad conference, and they still have not won a game away from Seattle (0-6).  Those other “Off the Bubble” teams are just there as a courtesy to the memory of Pac-10 ball.  To wit: Arizona (4-8 neutral/road record, including a loss in Corvallis), Arizona State (nine of 16 wins against teams ranked 175 or worse in the RPI), and USC (home loss to #211 Loyola Marymount) don’t really belong on this list.

Patriot League (1)

Auto: Lehigh (163)

Southeastern (5)

Auto: Kentucky (5)

Locks: Vanderbilt (11), Tennessee (22)

On the Bubble: Mississippi (39), Florida (48)

Off the Bubble: South Carolina (71), Mississippi State (72)

It would be nice to give the “other” USC a little more credit after handing Kentucky its first loss, but the Gamecocks simply don’t have the profile or the standing (fifth in the SEC East) to justify a bid.  Mississippi State has fast fallen out of the picture, having lost four of five.  The rest of the SEC looks fine, though; Mississippi’s neutral-site win over Kansas State carries a lot of weight, as do Florida’s wins over Florida State and Michigan State (neutral).  This looks like a pretty solid five-bid conference.

Southern (1)

Auto: Charleston (107)

Southland (1)

Auto: Sam Houston State (77)

Southwestern Athletic (1)

Auto: Jackson State (250)

Summit League (1)

Auto: Oakland (69)

Sun Belt (1)

Auto: Arkansas State (160)

West Coast (2)

Auto: Gonzaga (24)

On the Bubble: Saint Mary’s (44)

For St. Mary’s, non-conference wins over New Mexico State, San Diego State, at Utah State, and vs. Northeastern didn’t impress at the time, but look increasingly good as those teams continue to climb the ladders of their respective conferences.  The big showdown - SMC @ Gonzaga - looms on Thursday, but that contest will likely determine only how much the Gaels have to sweat out their at-large bid on Selection Sunday.

Western Athletic (1)

Auto: New Mexico State (68)

Off the Bubble: Utah State (49)

The (NMSU) Aggies hold the tie-breakers over Utah State and former conference leader Louisiana Tech, but have no chance for an at-large bid.  The (USU) Aggies have a win over BYU and a pretty 17-6 record after its eighth straight win on Saturday, but lack the overall profile of an at-large dancer.  This is a three-horse race in a one-bid league.

Photo: The Hockey News

In the last installment of JOTW we discussed abbreviated city names which have been appearing with increasing regularity on sports uniforms. This topic made me think of an even more prevalent style on jerseys throughout athletics: the use of a shortened version of team’s nickname - a “nicknickname” if you will. The Tampa Bay Lightning’s introduction last year of a blue third jersey with “Bolts” running diagonally down the chest (feature photo) really stuck out from the rest of the league’s alternates. Well, all but the Ottawa Senators, who unveiled their new thirds the day before Tampa Bay and featured a similar nicknickname style with “Sens” trending slightly upward across the jersey. The use of nicknicknames on hockey uniforms is definitely unique. At least “Sens” is short for the team’s official nickname. “Bolts” is more of a fan or media nickname that just doesn’t seem to make sense on one of the team’s actual jerseys.

Frankly, I don’t like them but I think it has less to do with the nicknicknames and more with the fact that they use wordmarks instead of team logos. Hockey is distinguished from other sports in that the front of the jersey has historically been reserved for a logo. There’s usually no city or nickname wordmarks, player numbers, or sponsor patches - just the team’s primary crest. So you can credit the two teams for doing something different, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s any kind of improvement. For example, I’ve long disliked the look the Anaheim Ducks came up with a few years ago. Instead of the lame wordmark, why not slap the webbed-D logo on the front and call it a day? In reality, the Lightning and Senators’ alternates probably aren’t as bad as the Thrashers and Stars “basketball” look with name and number on the front of jersey, but that doesn’t excuse them for missing the opportunity to feature a secondary logo on their new sweaters.

With all of that said, the New York Rangers’ jerseys are classic despite essentially featuring a word mark down diagonally down the front of the sweater. I like this look and even the jerseys it has inspired in other teams. But notice how each of the words in those pictures were on the long side. Tampa Bay was surely trying to capture the Rangers’ style, but I think “Bolts” is just too short to do the diagonal treatment justice. Part of the reason that I think the Rangers’ wordmark look is well-received and the Bolts and Sens jerseys might not be is that the Rangers have been wearing that sweater almost continually since the 1920s (when it really was a sweater). Sports uniforms that have been around for a long time gain acceptance because of their longevity and familiarity with fans. The use of nicknicknames on MLB and NBA uniforms has been around for decades and therefore has made fans mostly unaware and/or unfazed by it.

On the court, the Portland Trail Blazers go with the shorter “Blazers” on their jerseys and quite possibly have done that for the franchise’s entire existence (unfortunately, there is no comprehensive uniform history site for NBA teams). The Minnesota Timberwolves wore jerseys with “Wolves” across the chest from the team’s inception in 1989 until 1996 and then switched to the full nickname for more than a decade before going back to the nicknickname with their latest uniform set. In 2004, the Dallas Mavericks introduced a green alternate jersey with “Mavs” on it that is now blue but still features the nicknickname. The Cleveland Cavaliers have worn a number of uniforms with a “Cavs” wordmark (scroll to bottom), many of which are now worn seemingly every other game as throwbacks (probably to let LeBron mix it up with his headbands and footwear).

In baseball, the Oakland Athletics had worn various versions of a single “A” on their hats and jerseys going back to the franchise’s inception as the Philadelphia A’s in 1901. In 1970, the team (now in Oakland) switched to the nicknickname “A’s” on their jerseys and hats, which they still wear today. The nicknickname “Sox” for the Chicago White Sox first appeared on a jersey in 1911 and on a hat in 1917 - a style that carries on in the present. In 2001, Tampa Bay decided to go with just “Rays” on their jerseys despite the fact that the full team name was still “Devil Rays” at that point (it would be officially shortened to “Rays” in 2008). The Toronto Blue Jays have tried very hard to distance themselves from blue in recent years - both in their color scheme and in their nickname, which has been shorted to “Jays” on jerseys since a 2004 redesign. The Orioles have long been referred to as the O’s, officially adding the mark to their uniforms in 2005 with a hat (no doubt modeled after the A’s) that they have worn since then.

The one exception to the nicknickname love in baseball might be the Arizona Diamondbacks, who in 2007 went with the shortened “D-backs” mark on their home jerseys and were almost immediately ridiculed for it. I guess the built-up acceptance of nicknicknames in the sport only goes so far.